Oct 2019
3:19pm, 30 Oct 2019
16,198 posts
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Stander
Please let her hold one without authority so we can lock her up for 13 years like they do in Spain. I don't have an issue with the Scottish accent, but her constant whinging just does my head in and makes me thankful that duct tape exists. If only someone would use it on her. |
Oct 2019
3:36pm, 30 Oct 2019
9,345 posts
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larkim
Ref jda and the wasted vote. This is the way my mind sees it. Whilst of course every vote carries the same worth, if you've got a trend in a locality where there are multiple parties but only Party A or Party B ever achieve > 30% of the vote, and none of the others have exceeded 10%, there is a high likelihood of the top 2 being the victors. If your vote is not in one of the piles for Party A or Party B it has next to no chance of being in the pile of votes that ultimately carries a victor through the line. It might as well not be cast, at the time that you cast it. If you cast a vote for Party A or Party B, it has a much higher chance of being in the "winning" pile, at the time that you cast your vote. Your single vote could be the difference between carrying a party over the winning line or not. Once they are all cast and counted, the only ones with any worth are the winning ones, of course. Every other one is "wasted" or has had no impact. It is of course much more nuanced than that, as you may be choosing to cast a vote between Party A and one of the <10% parties, so by voting minority party you might be depriving Party A of a winning vote etc etc. |
Oct 2019
3:51pm, 30 Oct 2019
9,212 posts
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rf_fozzy
Hence the dire need for PR.
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Oct 2019
4:07pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,419 posts
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Chrisull
Electoral calculus currently predicts Labour going under the 200 mark.... That is considerably worse than 1983. It's been predicted a couple of times already in previous elections and never happened. I'd suggest Labour will not go below 200 and these polls are a bit excitable. They tend to overestimate the Lib Dems and under estimate Labour historically. We shall see.
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Oct 2019
4:11pm, 30 Oct 2019
30,437 posts
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LindsD
Thanks, larkim. Better than I could have put it.
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Oct 2019
4:14pm, 30 Oct 2019
1,610 posts
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JRitchie
This election is going to be interesting and I think there polsters could get this horribly wrong. Lots of tactical voting likely, weather on the day could be s**t and turnout could be terribly low. Personally it is also the day of my office Xmas party so I will look forward to slumping on the sofa at 2am, kebab in hand to see the key results come in. |
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Oct 2019
4:35pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,420 posts
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Chrisull
Electoral calculus is interesting because it applies the kind of stats based approach that post "Moneyball" era of Football betting, that many football betting sites use. So if you type in your post code - I've typed in mine to bring up: electoralcalculus.co.uk And there is a reductionist thinking present here that fails to take account of nuance. Number 1) This was a Lib Dem constituency until 2010, a lot of Lib Dem wards at council level returning an overall Lib Dem run Cornwall council Number 2) It is one of the poorest constituencies in the UK, there is a potential Labour vote that has never really been tapped by Labour (but could be if they threw money here) Number 3) It fails to take account of the snowball effect. So UKIP polled 0% here because the UKIP didn't stand and it went directly to the Conservative vote last time. And yet Brexit Party is predicted to get 11%.... I think that the Brexit party will be far less of a draw here (sadly, as that would split the Tory vote) Number 4) It doesn't represent tactical voting. So in my view, they have under represented the Tory vote, over stated the Labour vote, which will tactically move to the Lib Dems if it's clear they are the number 2s. And this is the kind of thing that happens if you rigidly adhere to the states. So getting this constituency wrong in terms of 10 percent suggests elsewhere in the country they could be similarly wrong, the states might tell you Man City are gonna beat Norwich, 3-0, but don't be shocked when Norwich win 3-2. |
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Oct 2019
4:36pm, 30 Oct 2019
15,421 posts
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Chrisull
stats not states!
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Oct 2019
4:48pm, 30 Oct 2019
9,348 posts
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larkim
But equally Chris I suspect you could pick out a different constituency and find similar issues which tip it in the opposite direction, surely? Getting individual constituencies right isn't necessary to get the overall position correct UNLESS they are missing something fundamental to the model that will affect many constituencies.
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Oct 2019
4:55pm, 30 Oct 2019
2,374 posts
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J2R
Chris, as a Norwich City supporter I can tell you that I was indeed shocked. And I'd dearly love to see the same kind of upset occurring in the election. It's clear that as it stands, Johnson is on for a good working majority. But I comfort myself (a little) in that the Tory lead is pretty well solely down to him, it's not from anything worthwhile the party has done in Government. And he is such a loose cannon, prone to gaffe after gaffe, that he may well do himself some serious electoral damage in the next few weeks if his minders can't keep him away from debates, etc. Six weeks might be enough rope for him to hang himself. Of course, he will have a sustained PR campaign from the majority of the press (and his chums Laura K and Robert P), but even so, he is capable of cocking things up. Of course, while the Tories' polling is artificially boosted by Johnson's constructed popularity, so Labour's polling is equally depressed by Corbyn's miserably poor ratings. But the more Labour can push their policies to the fore, particularly things like defending the NHS while Johnson and his mates want to privatise it, the better it is likely to work out for them, despite Corbyn. |
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