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Oct 2019
10:45am, 4 Oct 2019
32,604 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
SNP swept the board 2 x GEs ago but lost a lot of ground in the last one (lost 12 or 15 seats?) They're not universally loved up here (ask Mrs Shanksi and Bazoaxe!! Anyone except the SNP is how they might describe it?!)  G
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Oct 2019
10:47am, 4 Oct 2019
5,372 posts
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jda
Currently there isn't really an "anyone else" in scotland though, with the exception of a very rare LD or two...
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Oct 2019
10:51am, 4 Oct 2019
15,304 posts
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Chrisull
Johnson is unfortunately by far the most charismatic politician on offer. But it would take a black swan event to make him an unassailable PM.
Last night showed in by election wards, how the scenarios can play both ways. In Cardiff Tories held a seat because the opposition vote split down the middle between Lab and Lib dem, and if Lab had held the same vote share as late they would have won the seat.
CON: 36.4% (-4.5)
LAB: 28.0% (-10.0)
PC: 15.9% (+2.3)
LDEM: 13.9% (+6.3)
GRN: 5.8% (+5.8)
Conservative HOLD.
BUT in Taunton, Tories gained 20% of the votes but the Lib Dems were able to win the seat as the Lab vote was non-existent.
LDEM: 53.7% (+17.6)
CON: 38.6% (+21.2)
GRN: 5.2% (-13.3)
LAB: 2.4% (-5.1)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.
No Independent (-20.4) as prev.
This is what is gonna make the south west a hollow hunting ground. I am currently trying to persuade my normal Lab voting friends/family that they need to vote Lib Dem here, because Lab will do fine in other parts of the country, and better a hung parliament where you tactically voted, than a Tory majority where you voted for your first choice. But Lib Dem voters need to vote Labour in places such as Cardiff, so that you don't get Lab losing marginals to due to them losing votes to Tories and Lib Dems.
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Oct 2019
10:52am, 4 Oct 2019
6,634 posts
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paul the builder
Generally no-one cares about NI returns, and we might well be back in that situation again post the next GE, unless the maths precisely falls the way of the DUP (& Tories) again. But if it does - they might well be 1 or 2 lighter than their current 10.
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Oct 2019
10:55am, 4 Oct 2019
15,330 posts
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Bazoaxe
It’s a dilemma. Vote in the snp to avoid a hard Brexit or any Brexit. Reward. Leave the uk. And then leave the Eu in a hard scexit.
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Oct 2019
10:58am, 4 Oct 2019
6,635 posts
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paul the builder
You missed out the actual IndyRef2, where you can vote to stay (again).
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Oct 2019
10:59am, 4 Oct 2019
32,606 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
And get back into the EU within a few years as Scotland would be very welcome. No doubt that it would be a big financial hit though. Not arguing that.
I'd be happy to vote Labour or Lib Dem in Scotland if it didn't risk letting a Tory in. (In terms of avoiding Brexit.) G
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Oct 2019
11:05am, 4 Oct 2019
5,374 posts
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jda
Voting SNP is a long way from independence. Any new ref for that will only follow sustained polling in favour, which is completely independent from the votes in a GE.
Of course the SNP will make noises and leverage their power in that direction. But it's still a long way off. And I would bet dollars to doughnuts that it would only happen on the basis of smoothly sliding into EU membership.
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Oct 2019
11:12am, 4 Oct 2019
10,052 posts
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mrs shanksi
I will never vote snp or tory. I will be voting lib dem.
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Oct 2019
11:13am, 4 Oct 2019
10,053 posts
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mrs shanksi
My mp is Andrew Bowie and he's even been on radio 4 supporting Johnson. I had to switch over!
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