Oct 2019
10:25pm, 3 Oct 2019
9,165 posts
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rf_fozzy
"At some point, if the UK actually wants to Brexit, it will have to make fact-based decisions on its future." Cracking article from Peter Foster here: prospectmagazine.co.uk |
Oct 2019
9:20am, 4 Oct 2019
2,992 posts
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Bob!
Rory Stewart as leader of GNU anyone?
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Oct 2019
9:34am, 4 Oct 2019
32,601 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
The name Peter Foster and the Fetch nickname fozzy... hmmm, any relation rf_?!  +1 to Banjo's suggestion of multi-option AV/STV referendum. But also +1 to everyone else's point that there seems to be no way that it will happen. Why do political parties love GE's so much? I guess because it is what they are all about and delivers them power. GE isn't what we need. A route to understanding what the public really want regarding membership or otherwise of the EU and a way of delivering it. Metro today again - astonished a number of articulate letters saying that "largest democratic decision" is being taken away from us and parliament, MPs and EU are trying to thwart prime minister in his legitimate aims etc. Some people really believe this stuff. Intelligent people who can write a letter and state their view. They weren't attempting to justify their view or propose a solution (because it was their letter and they didn't have to), but they were articulate enough to be able to describe their will and their dissatisfaction. I find it astonishing.
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Oct 2019
9:42am, 4 Oct 2019
5,369 posts
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jda
Re: "what people want". If there's one lesson to be learnt from the ref, it's that the vast majority of people on all side don't understand complex issues very well and their wishes may well turn out to be unachievable. Hence representative democracy in which we elect people who we hope to represent our views tolerably well, who then legislate on the basis of their political preferences and also in the light of expert advice. |
Oct 2019
9:45am, 4 Oct 2019
2,326 posts
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Fellrunning
Being articulate and literate doesn't make someone intelligent. I've said much the same about BoJo and Eton. I could send my dog to Eton and I'd have a dog that could bark with a posh accent for my money. Still a dog though. ...
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Oct 2019
9:50am, 4 Oct 2019
18,883 posts
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DeeGee
Interesting development indeed, Bob!
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Oct 2019
10:11am, 4 Oct 2019
15,303 posts
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Chrisull
Can people on here stop saying about how it's gonna be a big Tory majority at the next elections? 1) I don't believe it's true, and 2) The maths simply don't support it. First of all they are gonna lose all 13 mps in Scotland in the next election, the polls are pretty unanimous in this. Second they are gonna lose between 10-20 seats in London and the South West. Again the polls are pretty unanimous in this. So explain how a party (even if you say they win ALL 21 seats they lost from Mps they sacked, which I don't believe they will) who has lost their majority even with DUP, can lose another 30 seats and then win a majority... So presumably you see them winning 60 seats? From Labour yeah??? Yes, it's part of the "Bolsover" strategy (so called because they win the seat of the "Beast of Bolsover" Dennis Skinner. But there are several problems with: First) Labour voters are far more tribal when it comes to elections, and despite mouthing off about Farage/UKIP, there is still a stigma to voting Tory and an allegiance to what friends/family vote for. Second) There simply are not 60 Lab/Tory marginals. The marginals are mainly Lib Dem /Tory and they are held by the Tories. Yes I can see Labour losing 20 seats across Birmingham and the North Midlands... AND? That simply isn't enough. Are they gonna lose inner city Liverpool or Sunderland or Leeds? No they ain't. Third) Finally analysis shows that the split Lab/Lib Dem vote say 24%-24% each, in a general election actually could be an advantage: twitter.com In fact in those drill downs, Johnson can increase his share of the vote, from say 26% to 28% and LOSE seats, in the projections. Yes I fear a Tory majority too, and have spent most elections worrying about them, but the truth is Brexit/Tory support is racking up big numbers in already safe seats. First Past the Post quite likely is gonna screw the Tories in this election, but perhaps the first and last time in living memory. The Tories best case scenario is a 5-10 seat majority, and that relies on the Lib Dems not taking as many seats in London and the South West as predicted, not taking any seats elsewhere, and the Labour vote collapsing in the north. |
Oct 2019
10:22am, 4 Oct 2019
8,908 posts
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larkim
I wish I shared your confidence Chris, and you're much better informed on the electoral maths than I am. I'm just speaking from local experience where I know that with our 4,500 labour majority in a formely Tory seat, there are plenty of voters who sided with Labour at the last election who cannot countenance voting for Corbyn at this one, and so will side with the LibDems, which locally is the same as chucking your vote away. Minus one for Labour, no change for the Tories. I agree Labour shouldn't be losing the heartlands, and even with reduced majorities there are plenty of very secure Labour strongholds, and it helps the Tories not one bit to bolster their support in existing majority constituencies, but Corbyn's utter lack of appeal to the Blairite middle ground is a huge weakness that someone like Johnson seems to be able to appeal to. Rationally, I'm probably expecting no real change - as you say the Scottish electoral map will look very different, and even if London doesn't change much that still puts a big dent in the Tory numbers, and swells the size of the opposition (small o) so an inoperable hung parliament looks most likely. But Johnson's appeal is unpredictable I think. |
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Oct 2019
10:38am, 4 Oct 2019
5,371 posts
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jda
Like many here I was also concerned at the polls putting the Tories top until I read up a bit more on the electoral maths. Chrisull is correct. A point that was also made recently on twitter is that the lab/LD split is much more favourable than the tory/bxp split. Brexit party is basically a proportion of tories pretty much everywhere, and therefore will cost them in some marginal seats. But Labour and LD are strong in different places and they don't compete so much. Obviously in 650 seats there are a number of counterexamples but that's the broad picture. I know we are used to a situation where a modest majority of votes often leads to a big majority of seats but that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. Polls change of course and there isn't much room for complacency. But neither does it look hopeless. |
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Oct 2019
10:43am, 4 Oct 2019
32,603 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Polls schmolls Chris! My fears are not based on data, in-depth analysis and assessment like you have done. It's based on a the word on the street, Facebook and The Metro letters section. I hope you are right and I am just being a scaredy-poo. G
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