Oct 2019
11:29am, 3 Oct 2019
8,891 posts
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larkim
So, if you were a politician trying to engineer ("against the will of the people") a remain outcome at this point, what is the most sensible approach? Let's assume extension asked for / granted and govt collapses under a VONC. A "remainer" in a caretaker govt would have to be very confident about the GE outcome to have any confidence that "remain" could still be on the table post GE. If the Tories win, even with a small majority, they would hold the cards in a stronger position than they are in today. Which could lead to a leaving deal, or no deal. So not the ideal "remain" outcome. Probability of success for remain? I'd put it no higher than 5% that post GE the govt will be in favour of remain, maybe 30% likelihood that a govt is returned with a mandate to ask the people for their opinion again. So does the caretake govt need to prioritise putting in place a fresh referendum prior to a GE? It would seem to me more likely that there could be a remain outcome from a referendum compared to from a GE, simply because Corbyn is unable to convince many that he's a credible PM. The LibDems can bluster all they like about wanting to win a GE, but they won't. They might hold a balance of power, but they wouldn't win. |
Oct 2019
11:42am, 3 Oct 2019
9,164 posts
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rf_fozzy
So having fucked about for weeks/months, Johnson has now issued an edict saying the EU have 2 days to start negotiating. independent.co.uk Shows he's not in any way serious about getting a deal. |
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Oct 2019
11:47am, 3 Oct 2019
8,893 posts
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larkim
Well to be fair, if they don't start work on the negotiations PDQ there isn't much time until the end of October!
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Oct 2019
11:51am, 3 Oct 2019
18,882 posts
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DeeGee
Well, that's fine. He can have his prorogation for those two days to prepare the Queen's Speech and get on with all the other legislative programme that he's not yet done.
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Oct 2019
11:51am, 3 Oct 2019
8,194 posts
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simbil
Larks, MPs can't engineer a remain outcome - all they can do is engineer a situation where we have not yet left and the people are asked for direction either via a general election or another referendum.
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Oct 2019
11:52am, 3 Oct 2019
5,363 posts
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jda
There simply isn't an option of a referendum under a caretaker/Corbyn govt, as they have no withdrawal agreement to put to the people. I do not believe there is any chance of a caretaker/Corbyn govt surviving long enough to negotiate such a deal and organise a ref - this is 6-9 months min if everything goes well and the country needs policies and budgets in the meantime.
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Oct 2019
12:04pm, 3 Oct 2019
2,305 posts
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J2R
There absolutely needs to be a referendum before a GE, if there's an extension. The trouble is that if Corbyn is leading the GNU, he will want a GE instead, because he's stupid and arrogant enough to think he'd win it. He wouldn't, Labour would get wiped out, Cons would get in with a working majority, and it would be game over. The only way this would be avoided would be if the GE were far enough off to allow people to see through Johnson's conman act, but I don't hold out any great hope of that.
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Oct 2019
12:11pm, 3 Oct 2019
8,894 posts
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larkim
Yep, that's my thinking too J2R. I agree also with jda though that there isn't an option for a referendum under a caretaker govt (or at least, not a likely one). Just making the point that in the enthusiasm to bring down Johnson and have a GE, it may be that the unintended consequence is a cleaner route to actual Brexit of some flavour unless Labour / Lib Dems do something spectacularly unexpected. |
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Oct 2019
12:19pm, 3 Oct 2019
2,306 posts
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J2R
It seems self-evident to me that by far the best option for Remain at this point would be if Corbyn were to agree to step aside and allow someone like Harriet Harman or Margaret Beckett to head a caretaker government after a VONC. His acolytes keep going on about how he has the 'right' to be interim PM, as leader of the opposition. This is nonsense (it just needs to be someone who has the confidence of the house), but even if it were true, it's irrelevant - he would not be able to get Remain-leaning Tories behind him and they all know that. If Beckett were put forward, I think she'd get a lot of backing.
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Oct 2019
12:19pm, 3 Oct 2019
24,203 posts
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Wriggling Snake
I think simbil has it right, neither side (because that is how Brexit is now, rather than a discussion of what is best) can get what they want, as we have been for the last 3 years we are drifting, drifting, drifting and the hard liners will win, again by a terrible default. I think Larkim is correct too, the LDs are playing their usual trick (fair enough), appealing to parts of the Labour and COnservative vote to hold the balance of power. What they do with that I have no idea, but that could be the route to a second ref with Labour....seeing as (he types while laughing) Labour are 'neutral' on Brexit. |
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