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Aug 2019
4:24pm, 28 Aug 2019
5,046 posts
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jda
Bojo's obvious intention is to provoke parliament into stopping him, at which point he hopes to win a GE. If he actually gets a mandate on a clear manifesto commitment for a crash brexit then that is the point at which it starts to look plausible.
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Aug 2019
4:38pm, 28 Aug 2019
15,990 posts
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Stander
I really don't see a GE happening before 31st October now.
If it happens afterwards, Deal or no Deal then becomes irrelevant. It's then all down to who the public thinks would best guide the country through the rest of the process and manage the country going forwards.
I presumes this explains the many spending pledges made recently and the bringing forward of the spending review by the Chancellor.
(This assumes we do actually leave on 31st - nothing is certain in the current crazy climate.)
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Aug 2019
5:00pm, 28 Aug 2019
2,317 posts
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B Rubble
Does anyone else think this is Dominic Cummings pushing the agenda? It doesn't seem to be the thing that the roly-poly labrador Boris would instigate. Of course he'll be very good at doing the "blah blah ... new government ..whiff whaff.." stuff that most people with any intelligence aren't fooled by.
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Aug 2019
5:08pm, 28 Aug 2019
15,058 posts
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Chrisull
Shock, horror - I agree with Stander's last comment/reading of the situation. No GE before 31st now.
I also think that the element of chaos means it's no longer certain what will happen next, and Cummings/Johnson for all their gaming might well end up on the losing side.
I was on holiday reading about the fascists just about to get the election in Italy with the collapse of the coalition 3 weeks ago, and now they're just about to be locked out of power for the next 5 years, so it shows how quickly things change. In Italy what has happened is the equivalent of Corbyn resigning, letting Keir Starmer take over and then the Lib Dems pledging to work with him. (This is a very inaccurate analogy before you come criticizing DeeGee  ). But my point is the magnitude of what has happened there to change the game. The game might be changed again, who knows...
But basically I'm not going to get exercised and angered by the proroguing of Parliament. It's a provocation and a big risk. Let them take it.
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Aug 2019
5:09pm, 28 Aug 2019
12,039 posts
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richmac
If there is a GE and a pro EU government gets in with a comfortable majority then presumably, on the basis they were democratically elected (will of the people and all that) given the carte blanche we have just seen demonstrated then an immediate renegotiation and re join of the EU would be entirely acceptable to all the leavers who are so into democracy ?
just as long as the fucking clowns who have failed to negotiate a decent exit are kept locked away from the adults.
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Aug 2019
5:23pm, 28 Aug 2019
5,047 posts
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jda
"I also think that the element of chaos means it's no longer certain what will happen next"
After the past three years of clarity and certainty, you mean?
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Aug 2019
5:31pm, 28 Aug 2019
2,318 posts
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B Rubble
A GE is going to be a big gamble, as it has been for the two most recent PMs who've taken over from an incumbent resigning leader. I would guess that the EU would "leave the door open" for a return if a pro EU government had a chance of being elected. Even if a pro Brexit government gets in a proper withdrawal will take so long that it may even be a possibility at the next election.
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Aug 2019
5:52pm, 28 Aug 2019
2,216 posts
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J2R
I think the idea of the EU leaving the door open for a return is a red herring, unfortunately. There is simply no mechanism for this to happen other than via Article 49, the same way a new country joins, and the process normally takes years. Besides, it requires unanimous approval from the other 27 countries, and I can't see that being easy to achieve, at least not without some serious concessions (over e.g. Gibraltar).
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Aug 2019
6:30pm, 28 Aug 2019
3,517 posts
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run free
Have to say - this is far more exciting than Eastenders.
And how come Bolsonaro has refused aid unless Macron apologises to him!! Perhaps the oil companies are offering him a much more lucrative deal to get into the Amazon.
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Aug 2019
6:38pm, 28 Aug 2019
1,186 posts
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um
Despite all the hype, on all sides, wasn't 'parliament' going to be 'suspended' for 3 weeks anyway, for the round of party conferences?
Would it have been better accepted (or just as bad) to fully load the parliament schedule with brexit stuff all through the conference period?
But - a bit like here - unless there's a TAMO* moment, no MPs are likely to change position, so why spend more time talking?
(TAMO - part of my project management backgound ... 'Then A Miracle Occurs' )
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