24 Oct
9:41pm, 24 Oct 2024
23,291 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: We don't know that. Not for sure. There is hope. We do know she is unlikely to win by +5% nationally. The polls clearly tell us that. |
24 Oct
10:09pm, 24 Oct 2024
5,665 posts
|
J2R
I didn't say she was going to win comfortably. I think Trump will win. My point was that even a narrow victory for her will not avert mayhem, as the Republicans will not accept the result. Of course, the difference between now and 2020 (or, more pertinently, Jan 2021) is that the incumbent is Biden, not Trump, which may be helpful for avoiding the worst outcomes.
|
24 Oct
10:23pm, 24 Oct 2024
264 posts
|
Yakima Canutt
rf_fozzy wrote: Reeves has confirmed expected change in fiscal rules to allow for borrowing for investment and infrastructure. Which is eminently sensible. I am not sure its an eminently sensible thing. But its definitively a "we have changed the rules thing" so that Labour can borrow more (for capital projects). Gordon Brown did a thing called PFI which kept debt off the books by building hospitals and schools and such like then leasing them, so the spend was an annual lease. After a few years the councils and authorities complained about how the leases were financially a bit... well.....shit! If I borrow to invest in capital that is fine as long as what I have invested in holds its value and gives a return (to pay the debt) so my tax does not have to increase to cover any shortfall. So what then could go wrong. If there is one thing that UK governments do well, its large capital projects. |
24 Oct
10:41pm, 24 Oct 2024
33,302 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
rf_fozzy wrote: Johnny Blaze wrote:We don't know that. Not for sure. There is hope. We do know she is unlikely to win by +5% nationally. The polls clearly tell us that. It's about the electoral college. Seven states. |
|
24 Oct
11:40pm, 24 Oct 2024
23,292 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Johnny Blaze wrote: rf_fozzy wrote:Johnny Blaze wrote:We don't know that. Not for sure. There is hope. We do know she is unlikely to win by +5% nationally. The polls clearly tell us that. It's about the electoral college. Seven states. Yes, but the polls in those states also show the story. She's unlikely to win them all. In fact, if the polls are right, she will be lucky to win more than 4 of them. And those are a 50/50 chance. Even if she wins all seven swing states, it won't be a "big" win. |
|
24 Oct
11:41pm, 24 Oct 2024
23,293 posts
|
rf_fozzy
Yakima Canutt wrote: rf_fozzy wrote:Reeves has confirmed expected change in fiscal rules to allow for borrowing for investment and infrastructure. Which is eminently sensible. I am not sure its an eminently sensible thing. But its definitively a "we have changed the rules thing" so that Labour can borrow more (for capital projects). Gordon Brown did a thing called PFI which kept debt off the books by building hospitals and schools and such like then leasing them, so the spend was an annual lease. After a few years the councils and authorities complained about how the leases were financially a bit... well.....shit! If I borrow to invest in capital that is fine as long as what I have invested in holds its value and gives a return (to pay the debt) so my tax does not have to increase to cover any shortfall. So what then could go wrong. If there is one thing that UK governments do well, its large capital projects. PFI is bad. This isn't PFI. Borrowing to invest is sensible. Or nobody would have a mortgage... (not that we should be comparing household finances to govt finances). |
|
25 Oct
7:29am, 25 Oct 2024
266 posts
|
Yakima Canutt
It isn't PFI, but it isn't a mortgage either. HS2 was a capital project. What about a new road. That's a capital project. Funded now by debt. Tax will have to rise from the economic growth generated by the new road to fund the interest and the debt repayment. GB Energy. Equity funded by government. Government take on debt to provide that equity. Government rely on profits from GB Energy to fund it. The trouble with government funding (like National Investment Bank and such like) is that part of the reason it's there is to step in when other traditional lenders don't (because they find it's too risky). I agree on government spending on capital and I agree it's important. There is also good examples of last government investment (BP, BT, The Post Office - well maybe not that one) They already spend a huge amount. I just don't like the idea of changing the rules to somehow make out this is new and different so clever and something not considered before and we were shackled by the wrong rules It isn't. It's just...... more ..... debt........ |
25 Oct
7:52am, 25 Oct 2024
17,988 posts
|
jda
It's just a political fudge to pretend they are bound by the rules while actually changing the rules. The market won't be fooled but may well judge that the change is fairly reasonable. Like "no increase in taxes for working people" which will actually increase taxes for working people. A lie to get elected on because no-one was prepared to speak the truth. If only they could take a similarly pragmatic approach to brexit. Oh no, that's an absolute red line, despite the fact that everyone knows it was, and continues to be, a complete disaster. |
25 Oct
7:54am, 25 Oct 2024
29,796 posts
|
richmac
YC's point of valid, the government since I don't know when, before I was born, probably have been fairly shit at capital plans, HS2 is the shining example of 'all noses to the trough'
|
25 Oct
8:54am, 25 Oct 2024
25,905 posts
|
larkim
Are Reeves / Starmer playing around a little more with basic Keynsian economics though? The broad reason the "rules" are there are to give the markets confidence that there are overall limits and structure to govt spending. It looks like there is a reasonable consensus that changing the rules at the minute is not a "bad thing", and the plan of spend to create wealth also feels pretty positive. (Though I would say that wouldn't I)
|
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Oct 2024
-
Economics
Aug 2023
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018
