Politics

214 watchers
9:05pm
9:05pm, 28 Oct 2024
6,824 posts
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paulcook
rf_fozzy wrote:I do think the horrific terror attacks by Hamas in October last year were the excuse they've been waiting for to do this. I can now see them fully occupying Gaza and the West Bank and expelling all Palestinians from Israel.


Yep.

Biden has done next to nothing to even attempt to stop anything. He's basically said if you don't stop, we won't tickle your tummy as much. Everyone knows where Trump stands, Biden has just been a giant disappointment.
9:06pm
9:06pm, 28 Oct 2024
7,591 posts
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Ally-C
I was under the impression that had forces operating air defence systems in Israel.
9:07pm
9:07pm, 28 Oct 2024
7,592 posts
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Ally-C
The US that is ^
9:10pm
9:10pm, 28 Oct 2024
23,331 posts
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rf_fozzy
paulcook wrote:rf_fozzy wrote:I do think the horrific terror attacks by Hamas in October last year were the excuse they've been waiting for to do this. I can now see them fully occupying Gaza and the West Bank and expelling all Palestinians from Israel. Yep. Biden has done next to nothing to even attempt to stop anything. He's basically said if you don't stop, we won't tickle your tummy as much. Everyone knows where Trump stands, Biden has just been a giant disappointment.


This is just plain wrong.

The Biden administration *has* been doing a lot. Lost count of how many times Blinken has been to Tel aviv.

Plus you don't know what is going on behind closed doors.

And whilst it might not matter to you, He is also constrained by the election and domestic politics as well.

Could they have done more? Sure. But they've not done nothing
9:13pm
9:13pm, 28 Oct 2024
23,332 posts
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rf_fozzy
Ally-C wrote:The US that is ^


Not sure. I thought they had an aircraft carrier group in the med and they've engaged Iranian drones in defence of Israel a few months ago (along with RAF jets if I recall), but I thought most of it was the air defence system.

But they're not actively engaged in a war or on hostile foreign soil.

They do have military personnel deployed overseas of course (Germany, Diego Garcia etc )
9:14pm
9:14pm, 28 Oct 2024
23,333 posts
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rf_fozzy
But it is true to say that they've not got any significant forces engaged in hostile territory for the first time since....?
10:13pm
10:13pm, 28 Oct 2024
6,825 posts
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paulcook
Amesbury was supposedly arguing about the temporary closure of a swingbridge. And cuts to the winter fuel payment.
10:22pm
10:22pm, 28 Oct 2024
22,315 posts
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Chrisull
Here's a fascinating article on how poll weighting can massively change the outcome of a poll (by up to 8 points):

goodauthority.org

And while we're on the subject polling analyst Adam Carlson drops this nugget:

"Poll after poll* shows Harris **leading** among those that've already voted (even narrowly in FL, where Ds are getting crushed in turnout by party reg)

Unless I'm missing something, either:
(a) Polls are badly misreading this group
(b) Indie/Republican early voters are voting bluer than we think

My money would be on the polls are missing something/they're getting an unrepresentative group, but if it's even a little bit of #2 that could be a major piece of post-election analysis that's just staring us right in the face"

He quotes the Marist polls I mentioned a few pages back, an A rated pollster. And goes on to say:

"Yes, these (the Marist polls) are essentially crosstabs and are not weighted to be representative of that population, but this is an unmistakable pattern.

Something's up."
10:25pm
10:25pm, 28 Oct 2024
5,383 posts
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run free
rf_fozzy wrote: The US currently has no armed forces engaged in any wars.


Does the US sell arms to Israel and Ukraine?
10:29pm
10:29pm, 28 Oct 2024
33,334 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I'm still optimistic.

60% of Americans detest Trump, and that includes some Republicans.
He's never got above 46% and since 2020 his list of crimes has grown ever longer. Women hate him. Trad Republicans hate him. In the last month he has insulted just about every constituency he needs.

That doesn't win him 50%+. Far from it. I'm still saying Harris 53%+.

About This Thread

Maintained by Chrisull
Name-calling will be called out, and Ad hominem will be frowned upon. :-) And whatabout-ery sits somewhere above responding to tone and below contradiction.

*** NEW US election PREDICTOR *** Predict:

1) Number of electoral college votes Democrats get
2) Party to win the Senate (Democrat or Republican)
3) Party to win the House (Democrat or Republican)

Do the prediction like this: 312 D D - you win if you get the first number right and no-one else does.

Johnny Blaze 360 R D
Bob 312 D D
EarlyRiser 306 R D
LindsD 298 R D
J2R 296 R D
Chrisull 276 R D
JamieKai 270 D R
Larkim 268 R R
TROSaracen 226 R R
PaulCook 0 G G

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