25 Oct
9:41am, 25 Oct 2024
23,297 posts
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rf_fozzy
(if you want to be precise, and we do, the uncertainty in the margain is 4.2)
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25 Oct
9:43am, 25 Oct 2024
22,301 posts
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Chrisull
As for copium - he's not saying anything other than we're saying. He thinks Harris has a very fractional edge (which is what a few of us are saying I think), but it comes down to voting on the day.
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25 Oct
9:45am, 25 Oct 2024
17,989 posts
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jda
Changing the rules to allow more spending within the (new) rules is exactly the same as breaking the rules and spending outside the (old) rules and it's just sophistry to pretend otherwise. Which made the original promise either stupid or dishonest, possibly both. |
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25 Oct
9:46am, 25 Oct 2024
23,298 posts
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rf_fozzy
EarlyRiser wrote: Ignore the polls at this stage. Watch the last-leg strategies. It's all about the margins. Trump plays for the male black / hispanic vote. He won't pull much of those across. Marginal. Harris plays for the female / trad republican vote. She has more of these to win over. She'll get most of them. More than marginal. My predication stays. Solid Harris win. Ignore the data? And go on assertions? The data shows some of those assertions are not correct though Trump is winning more male voters,core younger voters, more black voters and more Hispanic voters than in 2020. Harris is winning the women's vote by a huge margin, but Biden also did and there is a huge untapped resource for her to increase that margain The exception being college educated white suburban women who may have voted republican in the past. Here she may have some upside. But is it enough? |
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25 Oct
9:47am, 25 Oct 2024
22,302 posts
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Chrisull
It's not too late to put your prediction up their fozzy (ducking)...
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25 Oct
9:47am, 25 Oct 2024
27,597 posts
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Bazoaxe
lol, why not just wait for the result and that tells you what you need to know 
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25 Oct
9:48am, 25 Oct 2024
22,303 posts
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Chrisull
there even. Why do I default to the grammatically incorrect version.
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25 Oct
9:49am, 25 Oct 2024
22,304 posts
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Chrisull
And where's your prediction Bazo ;-)? And surely it's like football matches, half of it is the anticipation before hand? If you could look into the future and saw your team being tonked 5-0, it suddenly wouldn't be so interesting.
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25 Oct
9:51am, 25 Oct 2024
23,299 posts
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rf_fozzy
Chrisull wrote: As for copium - he's not saying anything other than we're saying. He thinks Harris has a very fractional edge (which is what a few of us are saying I think), but it comes down to voting on the day. It is copium. Because a 0.5% shift by stripping out the partisan polls is irrelevant. That was my point. For well understood reasons, Harris needs a ~+3-4% win in the popular vote. The current ~2% isn't sufficient. The state polling in WI, MI, PA is razor thin. Trump likely to win all the others (except perhaps NV). So those three are the game. Looking at the noise, which I wouldn't normally do, but it all seems to be nudging trump's direction and things like Rogan could well be enough |
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25 Oct
9:54am, 25 Oct 2024
23,300 posts
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rf_fozzy
Bazoaxe wrote: lol, why not just wait for the result and that tells you what you need to know I'm doing expectation management. |
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