25 Oct
11:36am, 25 Oct 2024
25,913 posts
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larkim
Just a curiosity that those closer to the US election will know - are mail-in ballots counted and publicly declared before the polls even open in the US? If so, how is that not considered utterly stupid?
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25 Oct
11:50am, 25 Oct 2024
33,305 posts
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Johnny Blaze
My understanding is that they are counted after the "vote on the day" votes. Which is as it should be, but unfortunately it also feeds into Trump's rigged election shtick.
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25 Oct
12:02pm, 25 Oct 2024
25,914 posts
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larkim
The only reason I asked is that I saw a tweet about votes being counted and being in favour of trump etc. Which felt odd. Maybe they were just making a presumption about the "normal" split of mail in ballots in that particular state. Can't find the tweet now!
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25 Oct
12:09pm, 25 Oct 2024
9,952 posts
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simbil
jda wrote: Worth noting that the 3% margin of error is really a meaningless number anyway. The sampling uncertainty is far smaller (3% is the sampling uncertainty on a sample size of 1000) but the possibility of bias in sampling can be basically anything depending on how good a job the pollsters have done. This is why the polling numbers and minutiae around polls don't resonate that much with me - unless the sample is good, the whole process is flawed from there on. It's also why I do take betting markets more seriously than some data purists - the people betting are prepared to put money against their method and each are a data point like a mini-poll of unknown methodology. Not looking to reopen old arguments, just explaining myself  I'm guessing Trump will win, very much hope I am wrong. |
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25 Oct
12:13pm, 25 Oct 2024
33,306 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Counterpoint: most gamblers never beat the house. It's kind of the house's business model.
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25 Oct
12:28pm, 25 Oct 2024
9,953 posts
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simbil
Isn't that handled largely by odds though, not whether the majority of betters were right or not? e.g. if 60% of betters are correct but only win half their stake due to odds, the 40% who lost their whole stake mean the bookie makes profit. Not to mention the magnitude of the stakes etc.
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25 Oct
12:37pm, 25 Oct 2024
17,992 posts
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jda
Perhaps it's not surprising some people don't like betting markets if they don't understand them.
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25 Oct
12:44pm, 25 Oct 2024
46,515 posts
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SPR
Trump gains with Hispanic men, Harris up with white women, Reuters/Ipsos polls show reuters.com Both are still behind with the groups they've gained with but Trump has gained with Hispanic men more than Harris has gained with white women when compared with 2020. "Former President Trump now trails Vice President Harris by just 2 percentage points among Hispanic men - 44% to 46% - compared with his 19 point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden at the same point in 2020, according to the analysis of more than 15,000 responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in the month through Oct. 21 and during the same period of 2020. Trump's gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favored him over Biden by 12 points late in 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. The two candidates are locked in an exceptionally tight race, with Harris up only marginally - 46% to 43% - in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-21." |
25 Oct
12:50pm, 25 Oct 2024
1,502 posts
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EarlyRiser
No apologies for leaning in on election strategies / target demographics and not on polling. Related considerations are propensity to actually vote and the encouragement to vote. Who turns out? Who helps them to do so? Harris is up on both. Higher motivated demographics. Bigger and better ground game.
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25 Oct
1:25pm, 25 Oct 2024
33,307 posts
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Johnny Blaze
My lived experience of the gambling life tells me that it's better off avoided.
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