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Jun 2024
1:48pm, 27 Jun 2024
8,611 posts
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um
* is there a 'tongue in cheek' icon? *
If standing as a candidate, (and from a history in a WW industry where currency hedging was the norm) I could see betting against myself as a way to hedge my costs.
eg, if I expect to spend £10k (or lose £10k) on election expenses and lost wages.
If I can place a bet on me not winning, for say £5k, that will cover my expenses.
And if I win the election, I don't care because I'm on the gravy train and confident I'll more than recoup that outlay.
Sound commercial practise, or fiddling the system and/or not to be done?
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Jun 2024
1:50pm, 27 Jun 2024
17,358 posts
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jda
As I've explained, the crux (according to most of what I've read) is really whether the magnitude of the bet exceeds the risk that is already implicit in the event. If the bet is of lower or similar value, then it's *lowering* the risk and is merely considered hedging by those who attempt to draw any distinction in the first place. If the bet is of much higher value than the loss, it's a gamble and certainly a strong incentive to throw the context. There's a moral hazard in any case, because even partial hedging reduces your incentive to avoid the loss.
The idea that a candidate in the election who bet 50 quid on themselves to lose, is going to actively try to lose in order to win this small sum of money, is risible. Conversely, a footballer who's bet ten thousand on themselves to be the first player to kick the ball off the park, certainly has a strong incentive to do so.
(The spread betting scandal in cricket wasn't about players actually throwing games, but doing relatively inconsequential things like bowling a no-ball at a particular time, an event that I happened to witness first-hand.)
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Jun 2024
1:52pm, 27 Jun 2024
5,483 posts
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paulcook
um, I was going to make a similar suggestion. Hedges can be emotional, financial, or similar.
In this situation I suppose it’s a potential financial hedge to minimise the financial risk similar to insurance! But it also smacks of potential corruption.
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Jun 2024
1:56pm, 27 Jun 2024
5,484 posts
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paulcook
Yes, the spot fixing in cricket and tennis has often never been about purposefully losing matches but pre-agreed periods of matches or signals. But both are fraudulent.
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Jun 2024
1:57pm, 27 Jun 2024
50,320 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
But it's still reasonable to create a set of rules to eliminate all scenarios, not just because they have a risk of wrongdoing but because the activity risks bringing the whole institution of politics into disrepute and ultimately, because it is unnecessary and frivolous. The "just a bit of fun" argument is irrelevant. Politicians don't need to do betting as "a bit of fun". They are paid decent money to do a serious job. If that comes with a restriction that they can't place bets on politics, then it's hardly curtailing their lifestyle. Bet on football instead. Or don't bet. Grrr.
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Jun 2024
2:02pm, 27 Jun 2024
5,485 posts
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paulcook
Can’t disagree with that G. If it is corruptible it will be corruptible so the only way is to stop it. Preventing them betting on politics markets is not impinging on their liberties.
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Jun 2024
2:08pm, 27 Jun 2024
24,770 posts
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larkim
It's a liberty question I guess. If they are used to betting on politics, even if they are only betting on stuff they cannot influence, then it's a curtailment of their freedoms to limit it. (I agree it should be curtailed, but that's because I'm not a libertarian)
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Jun 2024
5:05pm, 27 Jun 2024
21,727 posts
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Chrisull
Yeah I'm very sceptical of a pure Reform govt and certainly not by 2029. We've already passed peak Farage according to three of the post Daily Mail onslaught headlines.
Also by 2029, I suspect things like Net Zero targets won't be such bete noires as climate disasters become more commonplace.
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Jun 2024
5:31pm, 27 Jun 2024
28,179 posts
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richmac
Clacton may be underwater by then
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Jun 2024
6:40pm, 27 Jun 2024
2,654 posts
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MsG
Today I discovered that we have an anti-abortion candidate standing in the election. This discovery was made by visiting his campaign website which has several graphic photos to illustrate his point.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
