Jun 2024
10:42am, 27 Jun 2024
3,242 posts
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Mushroom
Went to a hustings last week - held in a local secondary school - Education based Q&A. Tory MP since 2010, previously Lab, who are most likely to regain seat - it is one of the Top 10 for Labour to flip. The best candidate on the night, in terms of talking well and sounding credible, was the Green Party guy (I think he might be a lecturer). Although I liked him, I am taking no chances and ticking Labour on the day. Off to another hustings tonight - this one based on the Environment. |
Jun 2024
10:52am, 27 Jun 2024
22,520 posts
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rf_fozzy
The Polling nerds will like this one - someone has built a tool to compare all MRPs and models by constituency: inglesp.github.io
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Jun 2024
10:53am, 27 Jun 2024
24,766 posts
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larkim
Johnny Blaze wrote: If the Cons *were* to get only a handful of seats, would that be their actual death as a party? Parties clearly can survive on small numbers, but I suppose the problem for them is how they describe their fundamental underpinning philosophy. They've had "issues" to bind them over the last few years; can they survive with "just" a 'small state, individual liberty' sort of shorthand philosophy which broadly defines (defined?) the GOP in the US? |
Jun 2024
10:53am, 27 Jun 2024
17,353 posts
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jda
We had a well-attended hustings a couple of days ago, biggest church hall in our small town completely overflowing. 8 candidates, for some reason we always get a few nutters as well as the main parties, which provides some entertainment. Andy Brown the Green won my vote for being prepared to speak honestly about Brexit. The Labour guy didn’t make much of an impression. It would be quite funny if the Tory won and was one of 50 MPs in a thoroughly defeated opposition. If it’s at all close here then it’s already a landslide nationally so one more or less won’t matter.
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Jun 2024
10:55am, 27 Jun 2024
5,360 posts
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J2R
paulcook wrote: Vidiprinter mode installed. Conservatives 3 (T-H-R-E-E) seats!! x.com Don't believe it. But would I welcome it if it were true? Does the sheer unadulterated joy of having the Conservatives reduced to 3 seats outweigh the horror of having 9 Reform MPs? I'm not sure it does, to be honest. I'd prefer a result with the Cons well below 100 and Reform with none or at best 1 (and preferably not Farage). |
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Jun 2024
10:57am, 27 Jun 2024
24,767 posts
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larkim
I'm not sure a "statsforlefties" individual calculation would really tend towards bias towards the Tories!! Think that analysis can be successfully ignored, as delightful as it might be to me.
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Jun 2024
10:58am, 27 Jun 2024
17,354 posts
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jda
The tories have thoroughly exploded their reputation for competence and fiscal responsibility. It’s hard to see what they have left as a USP, given that there is an alternative far right wingnut party.
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Jun 2024
11:11am, 27 Jun 2024
24,768 posts
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larkim
Even though you say that, still 1 in 6 people will continue to vote for them, and if Reform wasn't around it would be likely more than 1 in 5. As a prediction which I would be delighted to be wrong about, in 8 years time they will be as robust a potential force as they've ever been with at least 1 in 3 popular support.
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Jun 2024
11:19am, 27 Jun 2024
24,769 posts
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larkim
Wailing and gnashing of teeth about 16/17 year olds voting, and we've got existing voters like this... |
Jun 2024
11:23am, 27 Jun 2024
165 posts
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Joe1970
@larkim in what has been a pretty grim election campaign, that gave me a genuine lol. I guess it's nice to know some people have red lines on what they can and cannot vote for!
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