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Dec 2021
9:40am, 3 Dec 2021
51,214 posts
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LindsD
T-bags 
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Dec 2021
9:43am, 3 Dec 2021
18,757 posts
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Chrisull
Bexley actually is a totally depressing result, no comfort for Labour here.
Basically (as many of the data scientists are hinting), Tories stayed at home, Labour barely picked up more than a handful, and that the countrywide opinion polls (slight lead for Tories/neck and neck) are accurate. Tice helped make the result look closer than it was. Libs and Greens vote was squeezed, but if it had been a truly close vote (less than a 1000), enough to cost Labour the seat anyway.
So I need to once again aim at the hard left/hard right simplism that people are raising outside this thread, and that is occasionally present on this thread.
It isn't two sides to the political spectrum, it is four sides. The less remembered side is commonly depicted as libertatians vs authoritarians, but that is NOT a helpful description. Let's call it social liberals (libertarians) vs social conservatives (authoritarians).
The reason Labour are not making in roads / despite seemingly the most inept government of the last two centuries, is the "culture war". The red wall is essentially made up of socially conservative Labour voters. The Surrey/London suburbs are made up of socially liberal conservative voters.
Quick digression: ** The reason I had a lot of time for binks is because I am libertarian essentially (decriminalise drugs, open borders, UBI). These are not left wing policies per se, but they are libertarian ones and binks would have agreed with me I think it's fair to say. In fact if I believed, all governments are crap, and it's best having as little government as possible, then I'd essentially be a right wing libertarian. (I don't) **
Labour are getting caught in a pincer movement (and if you googled on Twitter Tory bye-election ads yesterday, it's Starmer/Rayner taking the knee and the hashtag never Labour, vote for Britain). It's weird because the last IPSOS Mori poll has said Labour are more trusted than the Tories on immigration currently, and less trusted on climate change. However it seems immigration, Black Lives matters have been conflated with patriotism, workers losing their job due to capitalism. Labour haven't challenged this, in fact they've run scared of this - Corbyn merely accelerated the divide (and yes he attracted some by polarising the debate). But Labour in refusing to offer an alternative view/vision, are now (incorrectly - just look at their poor drugs policies) portrayed as a socially liberal, left wing party, and this is used to alienate and divide their own party.
Until Labour (and indeed many left wing parties) find an effective way to counter this narrative, they will keep on losing. Tack to the right on social conservativism they alienate the greens, wavering lib dems, and more left wing types, tack to the left and they lose more of the "former red wall" types. This bye-election result for me just totally echoed all of the above. I have no answers either.
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Dec 2021
10:05am, 3 Dec 2021
727 posts
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Fields & fountain, moor & mountain
In this instance I think the manner the by election came about prompts a sympathy vote.
But - I don’t think anyone is much convinced by Starmer. And
that must cut through to election results. The current PM’s party will generally carry an incumbency advantage so an opposition leader has to appear better to be trusted with running the country.
Also - I don’t know what it is but his voice sounds a bit unnatural to me. I find Khan and Burnham carry more gravitas and look more like comfortable in their own skin for want of a better phrase.
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Dec 2021
10:53am, 3 Dec 2021
17,046 posts
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richmachristmas
I'd not pin to much on the sympathy vote thing really, that's what so many tory supports wrote Batley and Spen off as.
I think it was a deeply con constituency and a block of lard with a blue rosette would win there.
I agree with you re Khan and Burnham, they're charisma comes from their dedication and passion for their home cities which is what makes them great Mayors. On a wider, national stage I think that would be lost. What Labour needs is figures like them to be fully and solidly behind the leadership.
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Dec 2021
10:59am, 3 Dec 2021
729 posts
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Fields & fountain, moor & mountain
I think Starmer comes across like a head prefect. Veneer of power but no real authority. Theresa May was similar.
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Dec 2021
11:03am, 3 Dec 2021
21,580 posts
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DeeGee
Surprised that Khan apparently didn't make it out to Bexley to do a bit of electioneering. I'm guessing that folk in that neck of the woods look eastwards to their identity rather than to London? Certainly they falsely claim to be from Kent every time I speak to anyone from there.
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Dec 2021
11:08am, 3 Dec 2021
730 posts
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Fields & fountain, moor & mountain
Wrong colour and religion I would suspect for much of Bexley. I wonder if there have been demographic changes in the under 40s, you’d assume that the grammar schools would be a pull for BAME groups if moving further out.
There’s a perception (put about by the Tories) in the Tory ring of the doughnut that he’s a Zone 1-3 mayor.
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Dec 2021
11:15am, 3 Dec 2021
5,495 posts
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um
(ahhh, the good old days ... but probably blame the GPO DeeGee, for not changing, or even setting, the postcodes from DA to SE-something back in 1965.)
I was born in Bexley when it was Kent.
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Dec 2021
11:16am, 3 Dec 2021
21,581 posts
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DeeGee
Maybe its a local identity thing? Bexley, Bromley, Orpington: all claim to be Kent. Dagenham, Romford, Chingford is all Essex, and your Twickenham and that mob are all Middlesex. Croydon's in Surrey.
It's like the old 071/081 advert, Inner city vs Greater London, Central London vs Outer London.
So he will be a Zone 1-3 Mayor, because he was put there by Zone 1-3 voters having focussed on Zone 1-3 priorities.
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Dec 2021
11:18am, 3 Dec 2021
21,582 posts
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DeeGee
(ahhh, the good old days ... but probably blame the GPO DeeGee, for not changing, or even setting, the postcodes from DA to SE-something back in 1965.) I was born in Bexley when it was Kent.
Oh, I certainly blame the GPO. My Doncaster postcode puts me firmly in South Humberside.
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