Dec 2019
2:40pm, 22 Dec 2019
1,974 posts
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Canute
I agree that many of those in the northeast who switched from LAB to Brexit Party would not have switched to CON if Brexit Party had not stood. Many have bitter memories of Thatcher and/or distrust the 'elite'. They did not see evidence that the EU had helped them and they lost faith that Labour could. If BJ delivers tangible increase in prosperity for the north in the next 5 years, some might vote CON in 2024, but if the deprivation persists, this group are potential Labour voters again provided Labour offers them credible hope.
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Dec 2019
2:59pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,634 posts
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Chrisull
JDA - Ok I'll put it bluntly. It is now *no longer* possible for Labour or Lib Dems to win an outright majority. (Will this be the case in a decade? I don't know - but certainly in the next 5 years) So they only way they can gain power is with coalition/affiliation with another party (which is the norm on the continent in most countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, Finland, and more recently Germany). Yes they cater for two different needs, but a Labour party that moves a little to the centre, and a Lib Dem party that compromises a little more than Swinson could are natural allies. The deal then becomes "the only way your party can get into power is if you back the other party here" and they reciprocate. It ain't rocket science. |
Dec 2019
3:37pm, 22 Dec 2019
25,061 posts
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Wriggling Snake
That is correct..from where labour are now they cannot win so they need a reset..will the current cabal do that? No. Also I am sceptical of all this white working class in the North being left behind...yes in places, and labour haven't helped them....how could they, they have had the money taken from them. I also think there is another element, and I think this is true in the NW, the old industries are dead, people work in different ways and in different industries...some of them just might not see themselves as labour voters anymore. |
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Dec 2019
3:43pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,635 posts
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Chrisull
WS - There is hope. I will quote you this poll of Labour members taken last week on the 16th: yougov.co.uk 44% of members believe Labour should move towards the centre, vs 32% - no preference. I suspect if a moderate candidate with a decent platform and base and charisma can be persuaded to stand, they'd win. RLB is not inspiring, Clive Lewis will take from her votes. The moderates need to field one candidate, they could well win if the do. Agree with you on rest of points. |
Dec 2019
3:52pm, 22 Dec 2019
778 posts
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Ally-C
A table beside me in a restaurant last night were condemning Nicola Sturgeon for “celebrating” Swinson’s defeat. Maybe, just maybe, she was celebrating a young lassie who has defeated cancer twice becoming a MP. Wish I’d said something, but didnae want to ruin my birthday meal. |
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Dec 2019
4:26pm, 22 Dec 2019
1,975 posts
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Canute
With regard to the credibility of the proposal that a progressive alliance is the way forward for 2024, in my recent posts I have argued that a progressive alliance wouldn’t have helped in the north east in 2019. There, the best hope for 2024 rests with a trustworthy labour party. In the northwest, the issues are a bit different. Bolton, Bury North, Bury South and Warrington South all switched from LAB to CON despite a progressive majority. To regain those seats Labour needs to recover votes lost to the LD. While this might be achieved via a progressive alliance, it might alternatively be achieved by sensible (i.e moderate socialist) Labour policies. So overall, despite the attractions of a progressive alliance, I am prepared to accept that there is a credible path to Labour regaining the north, but it requires regaining the trust of the ‘alienated’ voters in the deprived north east and the progressive voters who shifted to LD in the north west. With regard to Scotland, when the Scots recover for their understandable anger with being dragged out of the EU and face the reality of that departure from the UK would be very messy, I suspect that support for the SNP might actually decline. On the whole the Scots lean leftwards. If Labour can find a decent national leader and also a decent leader in Scotland, there are a half dozen seats in the vicinity of Glasgow and further east including Lothian and East Lothian that are winnable. A moderate Labour leadership candidate with 'a decent platform and base and charisma' might not only win the leadership contest but also lead the a party to victory in 2024 |
Dec 2019
4:29pm, 22 Dec 2019
6,021 posts
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jda
I'm old enough to remember when the two-party system was dead and it was certainly not possible for the tories to win cos they were wiped out across Scotland and the SW. That was most of the summer, IIRC.
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Dec 2019
4:58pm, 22 Dec 2019
779 posts
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Ally-C
A decent leader in Scotland for Labour, 😀
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Dec 2019
5:04pm, 22 Dec 2019
23,010 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I think the departure of Scotland could get messy as well - mainly because the Tories would behave like utter dicks, but also because the battle lines between English Nationalists and Scottish Nationalists would be crystallised by a vote to leave - to the detriment of all of us in my opinion. We "should" be capable of behaving like mature adults about it, and if we had a genuine statesman leading a rational government we might be, but somehow I doubt it. I tend to think that similar battle lines are about to be drawn between "the UK" and the EU. The right wing press is so morally bankrupt that they will have no qualms about characterising any difficulties as "us vs them" and they will whip up jingoism and antagonism quite shamelessly. Of course it won't cut any ice with the EU, but it will doubtless shore up support from the Little England knobheads that Johnson needs in 2024. |
Dec 2019
5:08pm, 22 Dec 2019
1,586 posts
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Surelynot
Canute - Labour is a busted flush in Scotland. I write as a former member. They have yet to come up with a plausible response to the constitutional issue. Post GE, there are murmurings within the party that it's no longer sustainable to refuse Scotland's right to have a vote on Independence. They need to sort that out to prevent being caught between pro-independence supporters on the SNP side, and the Tories. The Tories in Scotland campaign on the single issue of 'no to a second referendum' -- even at council elections. They are now the home of the unionist vote. The decline in the SNP vote has been confidently predicted at every election since they became the governing party at Holyrood. Making predictions is brave, given the times we live in, but I don't see the SNP vote sliding. |
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