Dec 2019
11:03pm, 21 Dec 2019
2,500 posts
|
J2R
BJ is just a lazy populist, like Trump. The question to ask is "What would Trump do?". The answer is not to tack back towards the centre in the hope of getting things done, but simply to do and say the things will get the most cheers from the faithful.
|
Dec 2019
8:43am, 22 Dec 2019
1,016 posts
|
Brighouse Boy
J2R - BJ will need to move into the centre ground in order to hold on to all the traditional Labour voters who changed parties this time, otherwise he risks losing power at the next election. And that's before the Labour party actually get their act together by then (not holding my breath for that though), although I strongly believe that we need a solid and effective opposition at the very least.
|
Dec 2019
9:03am, 22 Dec 2019
9,820 posts
|
Joopsy
I think that the last election has showed that he doesn’t need to worry about losing power for at least four years. He can then start rallying the troops again and writing racist articles.
|
Dec 2019
10:53am, 22 Dec 2019
15,632 posts
|
Chrisull
SPR - Yes the report doesn't seem to dig that deep,but I might tweet them and ask. Actually thinking overnight I made a mistake in my assumptions. There is a third class, Labour undecideds(neither Remain nor Leave). So we know 2.5 million Labour voters switched to another party. And we know out of those 700,000-800,000 went to leave parties. (Say 800,000). Leaving 1.7 million. So out of 2.5 million, a generous (but not impossible) estimate might say that's 25% could have been undecided previously on Brexit - so 625,000. So added to say 800,000 leavers, that still leaves comfortably over 1 million remain voters who switched. 1.075 million. Now if we say - this last is TOTAL guesswork, say said 25% of those switched to the SNP (which would strike me as high, SNP accounted for about 3-4% of the overall vote I think?) That would still leave 806,000 Labour remainers switched to another party.... above (best case estimate) 800,000 Labour leavers in England/Wales. But like I said I'd need to see the stats. But the narrative coming from Rebecca Long Bailey/Lisa Nandy/Unite is wrong. Switching to the 2nd referendum did not cost Labour the election. In fact it probably saved Labour from a far worse loss. |
Dec 2019
11:32am, 22 Dec 2019
850 posts
|
Roberto
David lammy hinting at a possible leadership bid. I've been saying for a few years how I really like him as an MP and one day could be a leader. May be a bit soon for him really but of the suggested candidates, he would probably get my vote.
|
Dec 2019
11:33am, 22 Dec 2019
605 posts
|
Scrooge
labour's default position now has to be pro-EU/remain. power until 2024 means the tories now own brexit. if brexit is a success, then it matters nothing if labour suddenly support it, the tories have that ground covered. if brexit is an utter disaster then a half organised labour party with a credible leader will utterly clean up power for the following 20 plus years (downside being they inherit only a poisoned chalice and broken economy....)
|
Dec 2019
1:36pm, 22 Dec 2019
1,973 posts
|
Canute
Chrisull Your analysis of the number of voter who switched away from labour is intriguing. I wonder what your analysis suggests about the likelihood that a progressive alliance in 2019 might have prevented the CON from gaining an absolute majority. After allowing for those going to SNP you estimated that another 800,000 remainers switched from labour. But did the shift from LAB to other progressive parties result in CON gains? In Kensington the shift from LAB to LD allowed CON to win. In High Peak, the shift from LAB to GREEN probably led to the CON gain. In contrast, in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, the shift from LAB to LD allowed Tim Farron to hold onto his seat, preventing a CON gain. I haven’t had a chance to examine all the seats where tactical voting might have made a difference, but the main reason for the CON absolute majority was the shift from LAB to CON in the northeast. and midlands, and it is not clear that a progressive alliance could have prevented this. The switch away for LAB in the northeast and midlands was linked to Brexit, but I suspect the fundamental problem in these areas is economic deprivation, exacerbated by the evidence that the north has lost out relative to the southeast. Voters wanted change. Ironically they found it easier to believe that BJ would deliver change than Corbyn. If BJ want to secure his gains in the northeast and midlands he needs to deliver change. On the other hand, if Labour are to recover, they have to win back the trust that Corbyn squandered. |
|
Dec 2019
1:45pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,633 posts
|
Chrisull
My analysis stems from this report. dataprax.is Actually I missed on the fourth page: " We estimate that over 1.1 million Remainers who voted for Labour in 2017 switched to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens orthe SNP in 2019. " So my 25% undecideds wasn't too far off the mark (giving me 1.075 million). Elsewhere I see this report is being used to argue that Nigel Farage actually cost the Tories 20 more seats in the red wall! twitter.com I'd take that with a pinch of salt, as the whole justification for Farage standing was that culturally some voters could NEVER vote Tory, but would vote Brexit Party. But maybe they had figures showing that there was a subsection of switchers who said they would have voted Tory if Brexit party hadn't stood... |
Dec 2019
2:14pm, 22 Dec 2019
6,019 posts
|
jda
There is no "remain". Not even in the libdems (I imagine). You might as well oppose the invention of the electric light bulb, or the LED for that matter.
|
|
Dec 2019
2:16pm, 22 Dec 2019
6,020 posts
|
jda
All this wishful thinking about alliances is a bit silly IMO. There's a reason the LD and Labour parties both exist. Of course people who aren't idealogues and zealots can see the theoretical potential for a compromise position, but such people don't run political parties on the whole.
|
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Oct 2024
-
Economics
Aug 2023
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018
