Dec 2019
5:17pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,636 posts
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Chrisull
To win an outright majority in 2024 by 1 one seat, Labour needs to make the same amount of gains did as Tony Blair did in 1997. This is without Tony Blair, or ANYBODY in the party who has his undeniable charisma as a leader (policies matter less so, I'd say), which was evident since 1994. Sadly, it is not going to happen. The biggest surprise in elections after the 1997 result (which wasn't a surprise, only the scale was), was 2017, which lets recall, didn't actually make that much difference. May was still PM, Labour still couldn't outvote her, she'd just lost 20 seats. Labour still lost. The FPTP system is currently working against Labour (in terms of votes needed to secure 1 mp), and while it yet might work for them in the future, with the current electoral map will not. Also you have: 1) the Tories propose to abolish the Fixed Terms Parliament Act - so they can choose WHEN to call an election 2) The boundary changes which will favour the Tories, to come into effect before 2024. 3) The distant, but real possibility, that Scotland becomes independent. Tony Blair and Harold Wilson are the only Labour prime ministers to WIN an election in the last 70 years. So is anyone brave enough to say yeah but... Labour could still win an absolutely majority in 2024 ? |
Dec 2019
6:22pm, 22 Dec 2019
6,022 posts
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jda
Worth remembering that demographics tip strongly towards Labour over a 5y period without anyone changing their view. Based on current voting. And also Brexit will no longer be an issue to attract the old vote to the Tories. Probably. There will be lots of Europe in the election, but not Brexit per se.
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Dec 2019
6:52pm, 22 Dec 2019
20,207 posts
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TRO Saracen
Rawnsley nails it. theguardian.com I have about 5% hope they’ll come to their senses; but a sinking feeling that RLB is going to get it. Which makes Labour’s chances about nil. |
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Dec 2019
7:27pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,637 posts
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Chrisull
JDA - and demographics strongly tip towards the Democrats in 2020, and yet Trump is gonna win it again. TRO - Not if the young have anything to do with it... (and last time they did). theguardian.com |
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Dec 2019
7:29pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,638 posts
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Chrisull
I could be wrong on RLB and will hold my hands up if she gets in, but my gut feel is people don't like losers, and continuity with losers. That will be the single biggest issue. Everyone supports Man Utd when they're winning the league, a lot less do when they're in a mid table/relegation fight.
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Dec 2019
8:08pm, 22 Dec 2019
15,680 posts
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Bazoaxe
The Scottish nationalists are similar to brexiteers in wanting the outcome regardless of the consequences.
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Dec 2019
8:51pm, 22 Dec 2019
1,662 posts
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JRitchie
Someone asked earlier about whether Boris would, with a majority move to to the centre. As Boris is not a conviction politician but will flex his position deepening on the mood of the nations (if he or Dominic interpret it right and lets new honest they did this month) then how Boris will play out will, I think, actually depend on how Labour play out. Other than Brexit and throw some money at the NHS the tory party manifesto was pretty light. If Labour stay far left (Long-Bailey and Rayner) then Boris may get an easy ride - from what I see of the two of them on TV they don't seem much better than Corbyn. They will stay shut out of Scotland as well. If Labour realise they need to move to the centre and can be united on this and communicate this well and get traction, then I think Boris will tend to move to the centre / as well. He will want to keep the gains he made. We won't see this till 2022 and mid term. SNP however are stuck. Boris doesn't need to agree to second referendum and in an argument can just point to the 2014 result. I appreciate that EU referendum changes that - but then Cons will say, so what. There is no legal obligation to allow a second referendum and he can kick the can down the road until the next general election. He doesn't need scottish seats and as long as the SNP arn't loosing to Labour, Cons are winning. SNP need a B- plan. The only thing I can see that would help them (apart from trying to be better at using the powers they have and they have a lot to gain here as I don't see them being a shining beacon of a better organised Scottish NHS, or a better Scottish education system etc) is to get into some cosy conversations with the EU once GB is out as presumably to reassure people that Scotland could smooch into the EU with ease post referendum. At the end of the day though it will all come down to the economy. TV pictures of long queues of trucks at Dover on 31.12.2020 or a national interest into what the EU trade deal detail actually says and means - if one is agreed - will count a lot more on the Tories fortunes than whether a new Tony Blair comes on the scene. The lesson is there in the experience of the WA. |
Dec 2019
9:44pm, 22 Dec 2019
1,976 posts
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Canute
Chrisull I agree that the Tories hold the levers that will allow them to stack the odds in their favour for the next GE. However, I do not think that another Tony Blair is required to achieve another Labour victory. We are seeing different forces driving the political agenda both in the UK and world-wide than at any previous point in my life-time. More than at any time in the past 70 years, dishonesty is winning the battles. More than at any time is history, a large proportion of the population have access to information that bypasses the ‘establishment’ channels. It is possible to use these channels for good or ill. In his book WTF, Robert Peston provides a very credible account of how Dominic Cummings engineered the on-line campaign to win the 2016 Referendum. It wasn’t all outright lies, but it was clever distortion of the truth. There was enough truth in the ‘£350 million a week for the NHS’ claim to make it plausible. Cumming himself wrote an article in the Spectator in Jan 2017 saying that Leave’s their own research demonstrated that was slogan that won it for them. In the run-up to the 2017 GE, May’s team lacked Cumming’s ‘evil genius’ and allowed the Momentum team to paint a favourable image of Corbyn. To Corbyn’s credit he did come across as more ‘genuine’ than May and that helped. In contrast, I think it is likely that the post mortem examination of the 2019 on-line campaign will provide evidence that Cummings was far more influential than the tabloid press in the vilification of Corbyn. And Corbyn played into his hands in a manner that Cummings could scarcely have dreamt possible. In five years time, an even larger proportion of the electorate will form their opinions via the internet, and the on-line campaign might be even more important than in 2016, 2017 and 2019. However there is also a chance that the narrative will be established well before 2024. It is crucial that Labour elects a credible leader in 2020 and that the party conducts a principled campaign to expose the truth behind whatever story Cummings attempts to project. I do not think I am being either fanciful or paranoid in thinking that Cummings is already working on it. But there are many things that are unknowable at present. Cummings may be an evil genius in waging on-line campaigns, but the UK has very little expertise in trade deals in the modern world. Unfortunately there is a high likelihood that BJ will not secure a deal that is actually good for the UK. The progressive parties must make sure that they do not allow Cummings to distort the picture. |
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Dec 2019
9:54pm, 22 Dec 2019
20,208 posts
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TRO Saracen
Interesting that no one is even discussing the LD’s. That’s probably even worse for them than the never ending Labour discussions...... .......wonder if they’ll go ‘rejoin’...... |
Dec 2019
10:20pm, 22 Dec 2019
25,063 posts
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Wriggling Snake
Somebody should champion rejoin.
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