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Nov 2019
1:48pm, 28 Nov 2019
9,610 posts
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larkim
I'm stuck between thinking that the "bandwagon effect" might allow some wavering Tories to continue to vote for Bojo on the basis that the polls indicate he is comfortably leading, vs the "activate / deflate" effect would see the polls encourage a swing back to Labour or more "stay at home" from the Tories.
Truth is we won't know until 13th December. Though I am fearful we're not seeing the 2017 Corbyn effect - and bearing in mind that the existing seat distribution already has that Corbyn effect baked into it, he'd need to outperform 2017 to really keep Boris out of #10.
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Nov 2019
1:53pm, 28 Nov 2019
22,935 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I'm currently seeing that C4 have dealt with Johnson's absence from the environmental debate tonight by commissioning an ice sculpture of him.
An imaginative idea that will play well overseas and at home for years. I wish I'd thought of it.
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Nov 2019
1:56pm, 28 Nov 2019
42,851 posts
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Diogenes
About the only time he’ll ever appear cool.
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Nov 2019
2:52pm, 28 Nov 2019
22,936 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Boom!
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Nov 2019
3:04pm, 28 Nov 2019
8,725 posts
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Son of a Pronator Man
ice is the ideal medium.. Transparent and slippery
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Nov 2019
3:05pm, 28 Nov 2019
15,622 posts
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Bazoaxe
I have never been asked for my view in one of these polls. I looked into this during the Independence Referendum and it turns out not to be random. You need to be signed up to the poling companies and take part in endless other polls on random stuff and once you have done that for a while you might get asked for opinions on the bigger stuff.
I did register but lost interest quickly and well before I was asked my opinion. As far as I recall there was no benefit to taking part and so only those with lots of time on their hands or those that really really wanted their opinions to be heard are actually asked.
I think that's why they get skewed and its not good old boots on the ground asking people at random
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Nov 2019
3:15pm, 28 Nov 2019
33,431 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
*waiting for someone who know about polling to explain that they do also do random sampling, not just picking from existing, signed up professional pollees!*
Who are SMP Bazo? Did I miss a joke / slur there somewhere?! 
Polls def not looking good for anyone who isn't looking for Brexit and a country run for Tory fat cats' profits. G
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Nov 2019
3:16pm, 28 Nov 2019
31,285 posts
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LindsD
*confirms flights*
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Nov 2019
3:34pm, 28 Nov 2019
5,874 posts
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jda
The pollsters do all try their best at correcting for biases in the sample, but that changes over time so the corrections that would have worked last time, might not be right now. The massive increase in recent registration suggests a higher turnout among younger voters for one thing.
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Nov 2019
3:36pm, 28 Nov 2019
22,937 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Yep. I rather think that any pollster which calls it right at this stage has got it right more by luck than judgement
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