Nov 2019
10:47am, 28 Nov 2019
29,720 posts
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SPR
Easy to blame Corbyn for everything but not sure how Labour solve the committed leavers conundrum other than by coming out for Brexit so don't see how there was a winning formula there focusing on Brexit. I mean before this, most people were saying they wouldn't lose much by coming out for remain which it seems has proven to be incorrect. |
Nov 2019
10:54am, 28 Nov 2019
9,759 posts
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Torry Quine
Jo Swinson's challenge, which was correct, also served the purpose of bringing the donation into more people's view than an SNP leaflet could have hoped to have done.
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Nov 2019
11:02am, 28 Nov 2019
8,288 posts
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simbil
SPR, hard to say how it would have played out nationally if labour had gone clearly remain. Probably bad in heavy leave areas but it’s not clear that any strategy other than a leave one would work in those.
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Nov 2019
11:06am, 28 Nov 2019
27,169 posts
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macca 53
A long read but an excellent summary imho, from someone who has been there and done it! Basically saying , a plague on both your houses..... policyscotland.gla.ac.uk |
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Nov 2019
11:07am, 28 Nov 2019
29,722 posts
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SPR
Agree Simbil, but that's the point. It seems the strategy has worked ok with remain voters (little loss to LD) but not with leavers.
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Nov 2019
11:09am, 28 Nov 2019
27,170 posts
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macca 53
Oh! And also saying, cone back in 10 tears when “Brexit” might be close to “getting done”
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Nov 2019
11:31am, 28 Nov 2019
5,872 posts
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jda
"There has, throughout this sorry saga, been a depressing absence of people searching for any Brexit resolution which might, over time, command really substantial majority public support across the UK." Ha ha ha. If that is a major part of his criticism, he has less to offer than I had hoped. |
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Nov 2019
11:58am, 28 Nov 2019
27,173 posts
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macca 53
You may need to read further JDA ( but it is unmistakenly written in civil service language so nothing is unequivocal)......
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Nov 2019
12:12pm, 28 Nov 2019
15,621 posts
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Bazoaxe
I agree with HG, Tories not a problem in Scotland. Its the SMP who are  In addition to the Swinson Court case (which I heard SMP are appealing) the SMP also had to destroy campaign leaflets which appeared to have Scottish Government approval on them which broke rules. My current MP is LibDem and I will vote for them on the basis of keeping the SMP MP numbers down rather than a vote for the LibDems. No idea how I would vote otherwise. |
Nov 2019
1:40pm, 28 Nov 2019
15,533 posts
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Chrisull
On why MRP polling has some issues (Nate Silver of 538 is also not a great fan), and may not be giving a true picture. A long and technical blog: blogs.lse.ac.uk Summary: Basically YouGov's community is self-selecting, and even with 1.2 million, the people who respond more are a) over 55 and b) more likely to be Leave voters. This is a trend in the model rather than a bias from the original sample. As any model is vulnerable to problems with its assumptions, it could render it less useful. Why are people excited by the MRP poll? Because 1 week out in 2017 it got it right. HOWEVER, this time it's 2 weeks out, and based on even older data. My thoughts 1) - that all voters have an inertia, that polls to some extent can miss that barring those "landslide" moments, such as Blair getting in. (Brexit doesn't count, as there was no precedent - no previous Brexit votes). So by inertia I mean - they say I hate x) I'm voted for x) last time and I'm voting for y) this time. Then they don't they vote for x). I think Labour voters have quite a lot of inertia, more than polls give credit for. Certainly did in 2017. I call it the Chinese Takeaway conundrum. You say I fancy something different tonight to the usual and you scan the list, and circle some alternatives, and then when you come to phone for it, it's like actually I'll stick with what I like. Maybe you have tried another dish before and it wasn't as good. I think there is a lot of that at elections. So when you see polls tightening, it isn't because people have changed their mind or are intentionally lying, it's because only proximity to the vote crystallises their decision. Also people often to falsely remember - they say ah yes I voted for x) I'm voting for y), forgetting they voted for y) last time. Also interestingly one of the political data scientists I follow says she's seen some unweighted data where it is neck and neck, and while she says the whole premise for *weighting* is correct and raw data should be treated with suspicion, the weightings need to be solid. Which brings me back to the point at the top of my post and why they might not be... So long and short of it, I still think Tory majority, but I'm swinging back to 20 seats now or less. It still might flip the other way and give Johnson a landslide but given the currently is evenly divided and there is no particular love for Johnson, I think the idea of a safe Tory majority will make it easier for some to vote for Corbyn. |
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