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Nov 2019
3:12pm, 23 Nov 2019
24,718 posts
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Wriggling Snake
Indeed. Brexit was and is Cameron's answer to the Tories internal problems. By doing this he has fucked his own party and almost everyone else. Cameron's mistake has been exacerbated by the useless May and now the liar Johnson.
True enough Labour have been shite.
The L 'Democrats' position is patently stupid.
What a fucking mess.
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Nov 2019
4:50pm, 23 Nov 2019
31,144 posts
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LindsD
That ^
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Nov 2019
5:00pm, 23 Nov 2019
5,831 posts
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jda
I don't understand how people have been gaslit to the point that they think the only way a 3 year old advisory referendum can be legitimately overruled is via another referendum. It's not how our country has ever worked before. And yet the same people (at least most) would accept that if Johnson wins a majority then he has the right to pass his WA which was never approved in any ref.
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Nov 2019
6:11pm, 23 Nov 2019
58,692 posts
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swittle
Cicero said, 'O tempora! O mores!', denouncing his political enemies, as he '....deplores the sorry condition of the Roman republic, in which a citizen could plot against the state and not be punished for it.'
[Shapiro, 2005] in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_tempora_o_mores!
O times! O morals! indeed.
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Nov 2019
8:40pm, 23 Nov 2019
2,404 posts
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J2R
Another poll (Opinium) is now showing the Tories 19% ahead, on 47%. I think it's pretty clear now that we're stuffed, and that the British public is about to elect a far Right government which will do untold damage to the country. Part of the problem, of course, is that people see the main alternative to Johnson as completely unpalatable.
Back in 2017, the day after the general election, I remember being relieved at the fact that May had actually had a serious setback rather than the boost she had expected. But I was also disappointed that, despite losing the election, Corbyn had probably done well enough to survive as Labour leader. I have now come to think, in retrospect, that the particular electoral arithmetic of that result could hardly have been worse.
Firstly, it allowed Corbyn's delusional cult members to act ever since as if they had actually won the election, rather than fail to do as badly as was predicted against an uncharismatic Tory leader who was desperately trying to hold together a fragmenting party and whom any decent Labour leader would have completely trounced.
Secondly, it did not do enough to turn the tide, the precise distribution of the seats in fact pretty well ensuring that May continued and accelerated the rapid march to the Right by making her government dependent on the bigots of the Democratic Unionist Party. A few more seats going to Labour or the Lib Dems would have prevented this.
But thirdly, and most pertinently to our present crisis, it seems to have allowed the delusional Corbyn cult to believe that coming back from so far down in the polls is something their great Leader does, and he will do it again! They don't see 2017 as a one-off, but rather as a pattern, and unfortunately, I'm damned sure they're completely wrong about this. And you know what? When it all goes wrong, and he is heavily defeated by the most incompetent and deceitful Conservative party leader for many decades, the cult will stick by him, and blame it all on the media, and the Blairites and centrists, and probably the Lib Dems too.
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Nov 2019
9:05pm, 23 Nov 2019
15,520 posts
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Chrisull
While 19% does feel like an outlier, I must admit, but even with stats discard the outliers and you are left with 12-13% which means Labour are gonna have to come from a long way back. And the one thing about strong Labour performances, they generally also have strong Lib Dem performances. Which is not happening.
Ok Blair did not need the Lib Dems help, but they performed. You can argue Corbyn was strong (and Lib Dems were nowhere to be seen), but he had less seats than Kinnock of course.. who lost. The writing is on the wall.
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Nov 2019
9:17pm, 23 Nov 2019
22,922 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I am not sure that Labour will learn from a heavy defeat. Momentum and the harder left elements seem to be pretty entrenched and a myth will doubtless be promoted that Corbyn is "the greatest PM we never had". Corbyn's likely effect on the Labour Party was widely predicted soon after he was elected and it has all come to pass. I'm still hopeful that the polls will narrow but the window is getting ever smaller. If the Tory manifesto avoids any major slip-ups Labour are toast. My guess is that there will be at least one major snafu but it's just a guess.
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Nov 2019
10:53pm, 23 Nov 2019
15,521 posts
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Chrisull
First data model via YouGov. Lib Dems look away now. This the one used for 2017, which got it very close.
Con 349
Lab 213
LD 14
SNP 49
Plaid 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
JB - AT least Momentum and the Corbyn bloc are at odds with each other, I think infighting will ultimately let someone else in.
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Nov 2019
12:13am, 24 Nov 2019
8,279 posts
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simbil
Assuming you’re not someone who will be badly effected by Brexit, there are a few silver linings to a Tory win.
First is that they have owned Brexit from start to end and whatever happens is on them.
Second will be the end of Corbyn. This is his last chance as leader, he’ll be wanting to retire in a few years. Who knows what will come next though.
Third is that some people who hardly ever vote get what they wanted with Brexit.
I wouldn’t put money on any particular result just yet though.
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Nov 2019
12:44am, 24 Nov 2019
6,076 posts
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Dooogs
Lordy. Just what will the next Tory Parliamentary party (unburdened with the Clarkes, Gaukes, Greenings, etc of their last cohort) do with an actual majority? They might get slung out with the economy in a massive slump but what clusterfuck of a country would we be by 2024?
I've been a civil servant for 6 years (and a public sector worker for 15) but I'm not sure I could stomach the vista of a full five years working for a BoJo government with no prospect of a change.
No prospect of a significant, positive change once Corbyn goes. He's got enough acolytes in the PLP (and Unite) that a Long-Bailey or Rayner will probably take over, rather than a Starmer or Thornberry, alas...
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
