Nov 2019
8:47am, 12 Nov 2019
33,159 posts
|
HappyG(rrr)
Sure, but in our FPTP voting system, vote share doesn't matter, seats do. And SNP low vote share translates into a huge number of seats. Which very much matters when majorities could be single figures or no overall majority.  G
|
Nov 2019
8:49am, 12 Nov 2019
9,246 posts
|
rf_fozzy
TRO - I realise that, but it shows a lot can still happen.
|
Nov 2019
9:11am, 12 Nov 2019
8,270 posts
|
simbil
Scotland is a very big deal - 2017 saw 13 seats return Tory, 12 being gains. BoJo needs to get 2017 results +15 ish to be able to form a stable gov. If those 12 seats flip back in Scotland, it leaves a much bigger job for the Tories to do south of the border. |
Nov 2019
9:35am, 12 Nov 2019
10,109 posts
|
Markymarkmark
"Roll up, roll up, place your bets! All to play for, and nobody knows where the ball will land...." |
Nov 2019
11:18am, 12 Nov 2019
15,494 posts
|
Chrisull
TRO - I disagree it is relevant - although the caveat is past performance is not a great predictor of future trends. The tendency is for Labour/Corbyn to have hit their low water mark, and then outside Parliament, the ground game and the actual media performances of Corbyn make up *some* of the deficit, as (unlike the Euros) it is a 2 horse race. Johnson is almost an equally as appalling media performer as May - BUT for different reasons. His gaffes and lies offset his less wooden public performances. And May was still a far more liked public persona than Johnson was at this stage. You are also wrong on 10% being a 100 seat majority. The pollsters are saying 7-8% is the minimum needed for it NOT to be be a hung Parliament. |
Nov 2019
12:08pm, 12 Nov 2019
24,590 posts
|
Wriggling Snake
I meant to ask HappyG that, how are the Tories doing now that Ruth Davidson has gone?, as simbil pointed out, if it is going to be close (I happen to think it will not be), the Scots Tory seats could turn into a big deal. I think it will not be because the Tory vote will hold up, your average Tory will want to vote against Corbyn, more than vote against Brexit. The labour vote will vary depending on how the remain/leave vote reacts to labour's ridiculous position, and how other issues pan out. At present it seems to me all the parties are pretending they are going to spend some money that they have pulled out of a magic top hat, so Labour's natural position of we will supoort you in your community is weakened, or at least I think so. I don't happen to agree about May being much more liked, basically she wasn't Corbyn and performed abysmally, yet the Tory vote came out for her. Johnson is not Corbyn and plays better to that audience, the Tory vote will come out for him too. I would say Johnson is more divisive than May, i.e if you don't like him, you really don't like him, almost Thatcher like, May is just a bog standard Tory. |
Nov 2019
12:09pm, 12 Nov 2019
9,453 posts
|
larkim
Are you looking at that through left-wing tinted glasses Chris? Johnson is very much liked as a public persona, it seems to me. Despite everything!!
|
|
Nov 2019
12:14pm, 12 Nov 2019
9,454 posts
|
larkim
yougov.co.uk Johnson most popular (34%) Corbyn 22%. Some consolidated data here on approval ratings en.wikipedia.org |
|
Nov 2019
12:36pm, 12 Nov 2019
24,591 posts
|
Wriggling Snake
Odds Tory majority 4/7 hung 6/4 20s bar |
|
Nov 2019
12:44pm, 12 Nov 2019
9,457 posts
|
larkim
How reliable were the bookies last time around WS?
|
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Oct 2024
-
Economics
Aug 2023
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018
