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Nov 2019
1:52pm, 11 Nov 2019
18,947 posts
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DeeGee
The Labour voters who really wanted Brexit already jumped ship in 2017.
Splitting the Tory Brexit vote in key Labour held marginals isn't at all bad news for Labour, TBP standing down wont affect the remain support, so if the Labour and the Lib Dems can get some of their key Tory marginals then it's all positive.
Farage has stood down his troops to keep his powder dry. His vanity project losing all 650 seats wasn't going to reflect well on him.
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Nov 2019
1:54pm, 11 Nov 2019
9,442 posts
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larkim
Chris - yes, but if the outcome of the 12th December is to return at least 317 Tories back into the seats they won last time, that's hardly a triumphant change of direction that the left is looking for.
Some areas may be vulnerable (Scotland the most obvious) to Tories dropping back, but with Brexit = 1 Tories, Brexit >0 AND < 1 Labour and Brexit >0 Lib Dems, it does make Boris's job and narrative much easier. Had Boris had to battle with Farage over whether his deal really was Brexit I think there was more chance of a collective change in the understanding of where we were heading. I'm less confident about that today.
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Nov 2019
1:58pm, 11 Nov 2019
15,491 posts
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Chrisull
YouGov have just come out and said it makes no difference at all currently, and that basically Farage has got it the wrong way round, he needs to be standing in the Labour held marginals! Haha
Basically the only time it does make a difference is if Labour were to start trying to make gains (which with the best will in the wordl), they aren't. They are defending. He's helping them defend.
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Nov 2019
2:06pm, 11 Nov 2019
20,000 posts
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TRO Saracen
Question is really is this just part 1 of Farage’s climbdown and is there/ will there be a deal of some sort - probably on the quiet - in the Labour marginals.
When is formal announcement of candidates?
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Nov 2019
2:09pm, 11 Nov 2019
22,984 posts
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fetcheveryone
I think nominations have to be in by Thursday.
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Nov 2019
2:21pm, 11 Nov 2019
8,265 posts
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simbil
I guess Farage's best play is to try and win a handful of seats and play king maker with the Tories? So taking seats that the Tories could have a chance of gaining is a valid tactic so long as they hold the seats they won in 2017.
He can then make sure the gov sticks to the 2020 deadline and so get his WTO pure Brexit when a FTA can't be agreed in time.
He risks getting no Brexit at all. Doesn't seem to quite add up yet, so maybe there is more to come.
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Nov 2019
2:35pm, 11 Nov 2019
9,443 posts
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larkim
yougiv do caveat their "it makes no difference" analysis though:-
"There are three caveats to this. Firstly, whilst there has been a swing towards the Tories in their battle against Labour, the increase in Lib Dem and SNP vote share means that there is likely to be a swing against them in seats where they are battling against those parties.
However, there are not as many of these seats as there are Labour/Conservative marginals, and most of them will be the kind of places where the Brexit Party wouldn’t have won many votes anyway, such as Scotland or the more Remain-leaning seats in the south.
Secondly, it does help mitigate against the effects of a surge in support for Labour during this campaign. If the Labour vote share does start to recover, in the same way it did in 2017, this will make it more difficult for the party to start gaining seats from the Tories. However, on current polling it will take quite a turnaround of Jeremy Corbyn’s fortunes in order to reach this point.
Finally, whilst the practical effect might be quite small, we don’t know what effect Farage’s message might have on broader perceptions of the parties. It could be that even in seats where the Brexit Party is standing, voters that might otherwise have supported the party now feel more comfortable voting Tory after Farage’s comments."
So "firstly" - Tories might still have a tough battle against resurgent LD / SNPs. Agreed.
"Secondly" Labour's route to any sort of success is immediately cut off. Agreed
"Thirdly" it allows the BP and the Tories to be clear about Brexit. Agreed.
Which is what I think I was suggesting. In terms of raw electoral maths it was probably unlikely that the Tories were in fact going to be toppled by Labour in marginals. And this makes it even less likely. And the Tories and Labour can sing with one voice about Brexit, which changes that dynamic on the right.
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Nov 2019
2:56pm, 11 Nov 2019
5 posts
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fetch=bercow
Yep, it's the direction of travel that's important. When we look back at this election, you will find that through design/otherwise the Brexit Party will have had very little influence on Tory vote share/seats gained.
Remainer folks on this thread need to accept this in order to avoid the mental anguish that will follow on 13th December. Yes, that includes you jda - no swearing please 
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Nov 2019
3:00pm, 11 Nov 2019
1,569 posts
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Surelynot
Simplistically, the Tories are now the Brexit Party with more than just one policy and the Liberal Democrats are tacking right to fill the 'centrist' space formerly occupied by the Conservative Pary of Ken Clark and his ilk.
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Nov 2019
3:01pm, 11 Nov 2019
33,144 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
You really can't keep away, can you? I'm glad you're back.
But Stander, mate, just be yourself here. I mean, even the name Stander, is a pseudonym, why make up other ones?!
Right, I totally don't understand how Brexit Party people not standing in Tory seats can hurt Tories (if that's what you were saying Chris?).
And by the way how does "trying to defend seats" differ in any way from "trying to gain seats"? You've got to obtain support in either case. Which means people have to hear, believe and agree with your policies (or personalities, whichever you think it is people vote for when voting for a party in a GE).
Maybe I'm being naïve. But if I am then some of you are overthinking this analysis (cos let's face it, I'm smarter than 90% of the UK voters). Sad but true. G
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