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May 2020
6:29pm, 26 May 2020
7,919 posts
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chunkywizard
Gus, F6 is in with 245/945, ie much better. As Badger says it used to be a look up table but now that has changed with the current generation of watches
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May 2020
8:16pm, 26 May 2020
15,806 posts
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Gooner
My predictions look to be fairly spot on on my 245 despite being nowhere near my old pbs that are in my garmin connect history.
I have tested my max HR and input it as well as wearing the watch every day though so that may be why.
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May 2020
9:02pm, 26 May 2020
11,152 posts
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larkim
Wow, that's a crazy set of predictions badger. If it's changed to predicting what you're notionally capable of "now" I suppose that makes some sense if it's factoring in long runs etc - though everyone else's watches predictions listed on the last few pages tallied precisely to the runsmarter calcs.
It's also fundamentally "wrong" in a sense as comparability across VO2Max has been well researched as being quite consistent, even if in individual circumstances specificity of training will of course have a bit impact. Just because I could run 20:00 tomorrow doesn't mean I can run 1:32:00 half, or 41:30 10k tomorrow.
What's the point of a predictor which only tells you where you are today?
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May 2020
9:49pm, 26 May 2020
12,292 posts
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Badger
Quite handy for planning your pace strategy for a race tomorrow?
CW, how do your predictions line up for other distances? I think you only mentioned your 5k earlier.
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May 2020
9:55pm, 26 May 2020
7,920 posts
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chunkywizard
My predictions are:
5K: 19:07
10K: 40:20
Half 1:30:02
Marathon: 3:15:25
I think the 5K is difficult (but might get it on a track). 10K is the same but maybe.a bit more achievable , Half, I’d hope to be quicker, and Marathon is probably 5 minutes quicker than I could manage.
As I said before, loads better than my 935 used to be!
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May 2020
10:01pm, 26 May 2020
30,160 posts
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SPR
I think the point of the watch predictor should be to tell you your current shape so the way the new ones work makes sense to me.
FWIW, I've been within 10 secs of the 5k prediction on my FR230 over the last 3 years.
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May 2020
10:06pm, 26 May 2020
11,153 posts
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larkim
Surely it would be better for the watch to be told what race you're targeting and then provide a prediction for that one only? What's the point in a display showing a marathon prediction when you're training for a 5k?
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May 2020
10:12pm, 26 May 2020
7,922 posts
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chunkywizard
If you are looking for an idea of what marathon pace is at the start of a training plan Then it could be used for that reason.
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May 2020
10:24pm, 26 May 2020
30,161 posts
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SPR
Well it kind of gives an indication of what to work on. If times are way out of line as you move up, working on endurance will improve most distances, conversion super tight? A bit more work on speed.
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May 2020
7:16am, 27 May 2020
11,154 posts
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larkim
@CW - yes, but won't that create a self fulfillling prophesy? If you only train at the MP for the predicted marathon that you're untrained for, you'd be at too slow an MP to be useful to train at? Accepting that there is always a "finger in the air" when setting an MP at the beginning of a plan, of course.
Anyway, good to hear that the predictions are a little more subtle than a straight VO2 max calc on some watches these days; as with anything, once you understand what your watch is saying *for you* then its up to the individual to use that info. I can see that it would be motivating to start on a marathon plan for example with a 5k prediction that's reasonably accurate, and a marathon prediction which is wildly inaccurate (too slow), and then see the marathon prediction improve as the plan progresses.
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Garmin 735xt problem
Jan 2021