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USA Presidential Election watch - have you got USA Presidential Election

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Chrisull Nov 2016 8:57am, 10 Nov 2016 10,228 posts	Quote Pin Chrisull I think Trump is a last bastion against a changing world. By 2024 quite likely Texas and Arizona will have large enough Latino populations to topple Republicans in the electoral college - and while I wouldn't make the patronising claim all Latinos will vote for a Democrat, I think that when one candidate routinely impugns a single ethnic group, he is more than likely to struggle to win the majority back for years/decades. So within the next decade Republicans will have to be less racist, they concluded that after Romney, but have managed to pull this one out of the fire. However the Latino surge in Florida is only a small version of what will happen next time and the time after IF they continue on these tired and divisive politics. I suspect Trump, who is a vain man, will want to leave a legacy and be remembered for "building things" rather than say deporting Muslims/Mexicans or kicking 20 million people off healthcare insurance and, as with all new presidents, he has a small window of 2 years until the mid term elections to do this, where at which point he will lose that opportunity almost certainly in one if not both houses (as nearly all presidents do). He only has a 52-48 majority as it is after losing a New Hampshire senator late last night. So he will concentrate on some things at the expense of others. And when it comes to economics he is not a conservative, he will want to spend to back these projects, which is why much of his own party hate him. I also think that we who oppose him have to be careful of crying "it's the end of the world" whenever something like this happens. So is it even more of the end of the world if Le Pen gets in?? It's like climate change, I fully believe that it is happening and it is very much human influenced, but I also believe alarmism is not helping engage with people. Will the seas will dry up by 2100 and a quarter of the world will be habitable (this isn't an actual quote, but it's the kind of thing)? Climate is a chaotic system and very hard to accurately predict other than trends which look very bad. But we tell people the world is gonna end, and it doesn't then when the worst does happen, people will be ignoring it.
runnyeyes Nov 2016 9:09am, 10 Nov 2016 1,316 posts	Quote Pin runnyeyes Always interesting to read your thoughts Chris
Chrisull Nov 2016 9:10am, 10 Nov 2016 10,229 posts	Quote Pin Chrisull As for reading, well the American papers are better than the Grauniad currently (although Simon Jenkins is good today), see here in the Washington Post: washingtonpost.com and the New Yorker: newyorker.com and on social media, follow both conservatives and liberals is all I can say. Michael Moore has been excellent from the left on this: " Everyone must stop saying they are "stunned" and "shocked". What you mean to say is that you were in a bubble and weren't paying attention to your fellow Americans and their despair. YEARS of being neglected by both parties, the anger and the need for revenge against the system only grew. Along came a TV star they liked whose plan was to destroy both parties and tell them all "You're fired!" Trump's victory is no surprise. He was never a joke. Treating him as one only strengthened him. He is both a creature and a creation of the media and the media will never own that. " and for conservatives - I found this article, I don't agree with it, but has some interesting points: reaction.life "If Mr Trump does insist that the rest of Nato should make a higher contribution to defence, it would be hard to argue against him. Perhaps we should start by committing ourselves to spend two and a half percent of GDP on our defence."
Binks Nov 2016 9:22am, 10 Nov 2016 7,367 posts	Quote Pin Binks The reaction to Brexit was the reason Brexit happened. The reaction to Trump is the reason Trump happened. blogs.spectator.co.uk It seems that a campaign of calling people racist/sexist/morons etc only polarises them to silently vote for the thing you don't want them to. Marine Le Pen is up next in France. A truly horrible prospect. Will the Guardianista (like the highly educated and intelligent people they claim to be) learn from the first two times and try a different approach to changing an outcome? Perhaps finding out what these people are really pissed about and trying to fix that? Or will it just be a deluge of name calling and facebook memes and hoping for third time lucky?
HappyG(rrr) Nov 2016 9:56am, 10 Nov 2016 26,078 posts	Quote Pin HappyG(rrr) 4th time lucky. You big boys and girls keep forgetting Scottish independence referendum. That's another one I lost! G
Chrisull Nov 2016 10:05am, 10 Nov 2016 10,230 posts	Quote Pin Chrisull It seems like it will be Juppe against Le Pen... Juppe is quite popular in France and I suggest won't be averse to borrowing many of Le Pen's clothes. She might find it harder to define herself against a more right wing candidate. (see May vs UKIP). But yes, I've pointed out the same thing (if you've been reading Binks)... we have to drill down to the nuances, people aren't racist to their friends and neighbours, but do fear a generalised "other", and some of this is historical, institutionalised and learned behaviour, that we ALL suffer from. Some people I read say there is no common ground with those who are sexist and racist. Well good luck with that, you don't have to condone their views when dealing with people everyday. Dave Eggers article on hanging out with Trump supporters is a lot of fun (he admits they sound totally crazy), but it's the anti Trump protesters who come across as bitchy and narrowminded. theguardian.com
postieboy Nov 2016 12:37pm, 10 Nov 2016 3,933 posts	Quote Pin postieboy I ended up buying The Times. Whilst it's editorial gave a very cautious approval of Trump's victory based on the tone of his speech, the vast majority of articles are quite pessimistic. I loved The Sun's front page with Homer Simpson going 'D'oh'! Sums it up quite succinctly I think.
Fenland_Plodder Nov 2016 12:47pm, 10 Nov 2016 10,441 posts	Quote Pin Fenland_Plodder So those bringing up children, how does it work when the leader of the 'Free' world proclaims the following: "A lot of stuff in the world doesn't matter. You know what matters? Ass. Ass matters." Donald Trump at the third presidential debate: "Nobody respects women more than me." Three minutes later: "Such a nasty woman." (October 19, 2016) "You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful — I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the psy. You can do anything." –Donald Trump in a 2005 interview with Access Hollywood’s Billy Bush "I know more about ISIS than the generals do, believe me... I would bomb the sht out of them." –Donald Trump, Nov. 13, 2015
simbil Nov 2016 1:00pm, 10 Nov 2016 7,390 posts	Quote Pin simbil My kids think he is hilarious.
Duchess Nov 2016 1:00pm, 10 Nov 2016 7,226 posts	Quote Pin Duchess The same way it worked when one of his predecessors announced "we start bombing in ten minutes...." And can you just imagine what social media and such would have made of JFK?