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Nov 2024
12:09pm, 8 Nov 2024
28,455 posts
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TROSaracen
Well it was clear from the outset that one of the key areas of the election was that folk were generally unhappy with things as they were. Reps were hammering Biden, successfully, on the point.
Once Kamala appeared on the scene she had a substantial initial boost as 'something different' - and surged into the lead. Had the electorate continued to believe she offered something different I think that lead would have been retained. The reps were desperately (and unsuccessfully at the time) trying to pin 'no different from Biden' on her. She just needed to solidify that bridgehead by continuing to create the feeling that she'd be a bit different from Biden.
The lead then started to ebb away for 2 reasons:
- she herself, under direct questioning, said 'I would have done nothing different'. That remark went huge. It was pivotal that she couldn't create some way of distancing herself without actually being specific. How about, for example 'As VP I supported Joe's decisions, but had I been President I would have driven a different agenda - and you can see from the policies I've set out what that looks like'.
Sure the Reps would have howled, but she had differentiation at the time but then blew it by stating she would have done exactly the same. Biden team might have howled, and that would have helped her too.
- she also failed to really articulate a policy platform that differentiated her in any meaningful way. She waffled and platituded and attacked Trump most of the time.
I am just convinced that had she worked on differentiating herself that late, decisive Trumpward drift would have been substantially smaller.
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Nov 2024
12:23pm, 8 Nov 2024
4,191 posts
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Big_G
I don’t think much would have changed, regardless of what she said or did. James O Brien summed it up the other day where he basically said many voters didn’t care enough about Trump’s previous misdemeanours or what any of his previous ‘inner circle’ said - they were more concerned with gas prices and what spare money they’ve got in their pockets. And for whatever reason, people trusted Trump more on this, as he was going to change something/anything. We can look on and think that Trump is an idiot and that he was basically making things up as he went along, but it doesn’t matter.
I think even if his wife or any of his offspring came out and said he was a wrongun, that still would not have changed the result. Somehow none of that mattered.
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Nov 2024
12:26pm, 8 Nov 2024
27,638 posts
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Bazoaxe
Yeah, but why is it that more than 50% of people think that way. I dont understand it.
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Nov 2024
12:34pm, 8 Nov 2024
6,905 posts
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paulcook
Selfishness.
they were more concerned with gas prices and what spare money they’ve got in their pockets
If someone tells you he's going to make your life better it doesn't matter who he is. (Or it turns out, whether he's telling one of the biggest lies imaginable).
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Nov 2024
12:36pm, 8 Nov 2024
27,640 posts
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Bazoaxe
One positive side effect for me is that the funds my pension is invested in have performed very well over the last 2 days. Puts me in a quandry though, delighted to see the positive fund growth, but uncomfortable with the reason behind it.
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Nov 2024
12:55pm, 8 Nov 2024
18,085 posts
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jda
Most people believe a rapist over a woman.
Yes, the rich will quite likely get richer Bazo.
It's not like we don't see the same this side of the pond. Not to quite such an extreme, but still.
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Nov 2024
1:34pm, 8 Nov 2024
27,641 posts
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Bazoaxe
Of those that chose to vote in the USA jda, then yes thats true about who they believe
On the rich getting richer, I did read about massive jumps for Musk, bezos and co - in the billions. Sadly although I saw some gains, my overall wealth isnt even pocket money for these guys and they probably pay more for a bottle of wine
And yes again we have plenty of these over here as well and have voted for them in large numbers as well
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Nov 2024
1:44pm, 8 Nov 2024
5,711 posts
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J2R
I think the idiocy of the whole Trump economic programme will probably result in most people in the States, even the pretty rich, losing out ultimately. But the very richest, the likes of Trump, Bezos, etc., will probably do pretty well. They now have unprecedented power over the government agenda. It really is going to be a full on fascist plutocracy.
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Nov 2024
2:20pm, 8 Nov 2024
5,712 posts
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J2R
Sorry, should have been 'the likes of Musk, Bezos, etc'
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Nov 2024
3:13pm, 8 Nov 2024
46,673 posts
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SPR
Anything Kamala said she was going to change, the question would be why not now.
If you look at the demographics, the question is who was going to vote for her instead of Trump. Could she have got the Latinos back (and would they have made a difference)? She already did well with black voters, there wasn't a swing to be had there. Was there a turnout issue/ possible swing due to Gaza? Jury still out on that one. Could she have convinced more white women to vote for her? It seems clear they were a target but she failed to get the needed swing. Thing is she got a higher percentage of white people than Obama 2012 and Biden if the data is correct.
Turnout and Latinos seems to be the big thing, and if turnout is related to postal voting due to COVID rather than protest, then this might have been close to the result in 2020 without that.
Funnily enough, that might have been a better outcome as he'd have still had the restrainers in his camp then.
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024