Nov 2024
9:07am, 8 Nov 2024
18,084 posts
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jda
So after a day of shock and horror, everyone's sunk into depression....
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Nov 2024
9:24am, 8 Nov 2024
27,637 posts
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Bazoaxe
It needs to be accepted that for whatever reason, trumps message has resonated with the man on the street and they have voted for him. This has been something we have seen before. What is important is to understand why thats the case, and why the alternative message is not landing and learn from that. |
Nov 2024
9:33am, 8 Nov 2024
22,390 posts
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Chrisull
Nah some of us are still election watching. 13 close races left in the house still being counted. Democrats need to win 11 to flip the house. Stay put, you're already shaking your heads! Stay put because, most seats left in California AND i) Dems already favoured to win 8 (ahead or remaining vote distribution favours them) ii) One is a pure toss up they are slightly ahead in currently (in California). So that's maybe 9. iii) There's another they're ahead in but favoured to lose. That a real stretch but could be 10. iv) Out of the last 3 they are over 4 points behind in 2, so I'd say 2 are gone. But the last one still within the realms of possibility. So I'd say four possible outcomes: Repubs +5 , Repubs + 3, Repubs +1, Dems + 1 The most likely is Repub +3 (219 - 216). But at this point any victory for the Dems is quite significant, a plus 5 house is way easier to manage than a +1. Remember many of these house members are up for re-election in 2026. Now Trump deselects disloyalists, but in this election the real crazies (Mark Stein, Kari Lake) running for senate absolute MAGA loonies got their arses handed to them, while Trump still carried the state. So you can imagine there is gonna be some jockeying in the house between MAGA loonies and those with a seat to save. Trump has already disappeared, Greg Abbott has already said deportations won't happen overnight and they will take time and people need to be patient. It's like build that wall in 2016, in the end it didn't get done. I'm not saying things are great, but stay away from doomerism, on past track record they were evil but semi-ineffectual (as much from their own infighting). Same may well happen again. |
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Nov 2024
9:36am, 8 Nov 2024
22,391 posts
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Chrisull
As for messages, basically as pointed out previously NO incumbent government in a developed country won an election. Democrats did almost the best out of any of them. In the US household food prices rose by 35%. Wages didn't. Don't address that and no message will resonate |
Nov 2024
9:38am, 8 Nov 2024
51,327 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Really would like House to not be Republican, because then he has all 3 - Supreme Court, Senate and Congress and really would be able to ram through almost anything at Federal level. Agree individual states can still resist some things, but that's not much comfort!  G
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Nov 2024
9:40am, 8 Nov 2024
6,902 posts
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paulcook
Agree G. paulcook wrote:
A fascist president with no guard rails. What could possibly go wrong?! |
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Nov 2024
11:00am, 8 Nov 2024
6,904 posts
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paulcook
More stuff (and not just hidden away on the internet by conspiracy theorists and crackpots - well 😲) about the 2020 result theguardian.com |
Nov 2024
11:00am, 8 Nov 2024
28,454 posts
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TROSaracen
Sorry to Labour the point Chris but this is not an ‘incumbent’ loss. Trump had 4 years incumbency himself to be judged on, and Kamala was 1 step removed from incumbency as VP (she failed to make this tell in her campaign by not distancing herself like she should have). Americans do view voting for the Presidency as a seperate thing from party voting; it is a discrete judgement on the individual in the Oval Office. We need to analyse a bit deeper than merely incumbency. |
Nov 2024
11:23am, 8 Nov 2024
46,672 posts
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SPR
Why do you think distancing would work @TROSaracen and why do you think it's even credible?
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Nov 2024
11:58am, 8 Nov 2024
5,391 posts
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run free
Agree Bazoaxe and why are more countries leaning in the same way?
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