Politics

52 lurkers | 215 watchers
SPR
SPR
9 Sep
3:26pm, 9 Sep 2024
46,029 posts
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SPR
Cheg wrote:It’s entrenched as well. The core republicans and democrats that don’t budge is huge.


It's really about this.
Chrisull
Chrisull
9 Sep
3:37pm, 9 Sep 2024
22,110 posts
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Chrisull
Which is kinda why it's odd it's so close. Demographic change favours the democrats, Biden won 2020 and the midterms (which underestimated how animated the Democrat base was). Some of the polls are obviously crap (republican high schoolers do one that gets equal weighting/ranking, according to Nate Silver, with YouGov).

But Pennsylvania alone remains virtually tied in most polls. As for big states that would annihilate the need for the rust belt ones, Florida has swung Trump since 2012, and Texas is probably still 4 years away from going blue, so it remains on a knife edge.
Dave W
Dave W
9 Sep
3:44pm, 9 Sep 2024
21,947 posts
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Dave W
Which beggars belief, IMO. You only have to look at him and hear him speak for about a minute to know that he's not fit to run a whelk stall, let alone the US of A.
Cheg
Cheg
9 Sep
3:46pm, 9 Sep 2024
4,475 posts
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Cheg
Popular vote split

1992 - Dem 43.0%, Rep 37.4%, Ind 18.9%
1996 - Dem 49.2%, Rep 40.7%, Ind 8.4%
2000 - Dem 48.4%, Rep 47.9%
2004 - Dem 48.3%, Rep 50.7%
2008 - Dem 52.9%, Rep 45.7%
2012 - Dem 51.1%, Rep 47.2%
2016 - Dem 48.2%, Rep 46.1%
2020 - Dem 51.3%, Rep 46.8%

Including Al Gore and Hilary Clinton who won the popular vote for the Democrats but didn't get win the presidency.
paulcook
paulcook
9 Sep
3:54pm, 9 Sep 2024
6,385 posts
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paulcook
Harris will win ...

france24.com
Cheg
Cheg
9 Sep
3:56pm, 9 Sep 2024
4,476 posts
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Cheg
Let's hope he doesn't drop a ball like in 2000 then.
J2R
J2R
9 Sep
3:59pm, 9 Sep 2024
5,607 posts
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J2R
I worked in the States on and off 1998-2001, admittedly in the politically atypical Silicon Valley, and while I never wanted to live there I didn't feel as if the place was completely alien. But now, with half the nation supporting Trump, I'm sure I'd feel almost as out of place there as in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. These are people I have no point of contact with. It's not just that I disagree with their politics, but their whole view of right and wrong. If they can be fans, disciples even, of someone so obviously base, repulsive in every way at a human level, I cannot relate to them at all.
J2R
J2R
9 Sep
4:04pm, 9 Sep 2024
5,608 posts
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J2R
@paulcook , I'd love to believe this, but it has 'Paul the Octopus' vibes to me. :)
paulcook
paulcook
9 Sep
4:08pm, 9 Sep 2024
6,386 posts
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paulcook
He at least makes some political sense / justification. It's far more than a tentacle on a box type prediction.
J2R
J2R
9 Sep
4:11pm, 9 Sep 2024
5,609 posts
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J2R
Agreed.

About This Thread

Maintained by Chrisull
Name-calling will be called out, and Ad hominem will be frowned upon. :-) And whatabout-ery sits somewhere above responding to tone and below contradiction.

*** NEW US election PREDICTOR *** Predict:

Winner is TROSaracen 226 R R

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