Jul 2024
2:56pm, 26 Jul 2024
45,445 posts
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SPR
I've not seen the news but googling it brings up some stuff. The issue is the books were open to them before the election (as per the economic experts) so they should have known before then which is where the 'politics' come in. If they stick to Tory plans then that surely means cuts are coming? |
Jul 2024
5:23pm, 26 Jul 2024
162 posts
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Yakima Canutt
I'm not sure about this, but I can see exactly why Labour are doing it. I have no idea about the obligations of financial transparency from government to challenger parties on things like departmental budgets, spending forecasts, commitments and the like, but I do know that getting you arms around departments spending a combined 500bn per year is a pretty big set of data set to figure out over a 2 month period. However, Im also sure there will also be different assumptions made about the future to arrive at the position each party want to make. I'm more likely to believe the labour line, simply because the conservatives still have the "shysters" label attached to their credibility just now. Perhaps that's just memory bias. |
Jul 2024
5:31pm, 26 Jul 2024
22,763 posts
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rf_fozzy
There are some things Labour didn't know - the size of the public sector pay recommendations (and them being higher than widely expected) for example - but they could have had a good guess at (The fact the Tories knew what it was and didn't publish is what get Reeves out of the hole) |
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Jul 2024
5:33pm, 26 Jul 2024
22,764 posts
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rf_fozzy
But yes, they certainly knew the wide, big picture stuff, as the IFS have pointed out several times. But the Tories were also lying out of their back teeth to try and force Labour to say they'd have to put up taxes because they'd then have made the election about that. The mistake Labour made was that they could and would have won the election based on the situation the public sector is in and therefore the need for extra cash. Even the overturning of the NIC cuts from the past two years would have been something. |
Jul 2024
5:50pm, 26 Jul 2024
32,863 posts
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Johnny Blaze
There was a theory that Sunak called a July election because he knew things were about to get worse rather than better. This might be why.
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Jul 2024
6:01pm, 26 Jul 2024
22,765 posts
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rf_fozzy
Some Harris-Trump polls starting to come through. I'd not pay too much attention yet: 538 - now part of ABC - has not even started to show a polling average for the Presidential election yet after the change of candidate (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ ) However, of anecdotal interest is that polls conducted with fieldwork this week are showing Harris with substantial leads: projects.fivethirtyeight.com Maybe house effects, maybe a dodgy pollster, but +7/8% would see a comfortable win in the EC if true. But not enough information yet. Give it another week or so. |
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Jul 2024
6:51pm, 26 Jul 2024
45,447 posts
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SPR
If the black hole was why the election was called, then Labour should have been pointing it out given IFS was talking about a conspiracy of silence between both parties during the election campaign. Flynn said during one of the debates that it was £18bn (found from a previous post I made), so unless this is an additional £20bn then most of it was known. bbc.co.uk |
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Jul 2024
6:57pm, 26 Jul 2024
45,448 posts
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SPR
I agree about the mistake that @rf_fozzy highlighted. The thing is if Labour were in government and left a huge budget gap, the Tories would be shouting about it pre and post election. We don't even have to imagine it as it happened when the Tories first came in and was their excuse for austerity.
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Jul 2024
7:22pm, 26 Jul 2024
32,864 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Thanks, Fozzy. I am avoiding looking at their polls at the moment because I don't want to be crushed with disppointment. But my hope is that Lady Eowyn will soon smite the orange Nazgul. I hope so, anyway. |
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Jul 2024
7:25pm, 26 Jul 2024
32,865 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Could it just have been that it would have been a massive self-own if the Tories had attacked prospective Labour tax rises to plug the hole the Tories had themselves created? I don't know, tbh.
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