Jun 2024
9:14am, 28 Jun 2024
32,601 posts
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Johnny Blaze
If the US electorate, the Republican candidate and the Republican Party were all "normal" there should be no real reason why Harris shouldn't step in. They aren't and my guess is she won't. Plus, the stakes are even higher now.
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Jun 2024
9:15am, 28 Jun 2024
28,191 posts
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richmac
Won't be Harris then
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Jun 2024
9:15am, 28 Jun 2024
21,728 posts
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Chrisull
Time to panic on Biden. Although the rest is History doing a history of elections and pointing out only in two campaigns (1992 and 2017) could you begin to argue the campaign actually mattered. But here it is not good.
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Jun 2024
9:22am, 28 Jun 2024
11,315 posts
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Fields
GeneHunt59 wrote: Anyone know how accurate the exit polls are likely to be once polling closes on Thursday night. I usually stay up very late - all night in 1997!, but need an early night. I don't want to see exit polls when I go to bed saying Labour win only to wake up Friday with news Sunak has somehow scraped in. Maybe go to bed early say 2000 if possible and get up between 0200 - 0230. These are the timestamps for declarations from 2019 for info 2327 - first seat declared 0000 - 3 seats 0030 - 7 seats 0100 - 11 seats 0130 - 20 seats 0200 - 49 seats 0230 - 106 seats 0300 - 199 seats 0330 - 311 seats 0400 - 424 seats 0430 - 521 seats 0500 - 586 seats 0530 - 623 seats 0600 - 641 seats The big business is between 0200 and 0500 |
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Jun 2024
9:22am, 28 Jun 2024
32,602 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
GeneHunt59 wrote: Anyone know how accurate the exit polls are likely to be once polling closes on Thursday night. I usually stay up very late - all night in 1997!, but need an early night. I don't want to see exit polls when I go to bed saying Labour win only to wake up Friday with news Sunak has somehow scraped in. From what I recall they can be very accurate, but this is a funny old electoral mix at the moment so there may yet be surprises in store. |
Jun 2024
9:34am, 28 Jun 2024
3,853 posts
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GeneHunt59
I know it's forever ago, but early indications after 1970 polling closed were that Labour had retained power and Wilson had even started handing out cabinet positions for new government, only for Tories to win when full results came through.
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Jun 2024
9:34am, 28 Jun 2024
17,365 posts
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jda
Being black, leftwing and female are all disqualifying characteristics for president. It’s hard to think of a less plausible candidate.
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Jun 2024
9:35am, 28 Jun 2024
5,490 posts
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paulcook
Accuracy of exit polls. There is a video somewhere of some of them before this time scale. statista.com Given the size of Labour's victory, the margin of accuracy won't matter. |
Jun 2024
9:38am, 28 Jun 2024
14,359 posts
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sallykate
I think they are pretty accurate these days.
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Jun 2024
9:52am, 28 Jun 2024
11,316 posts
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Fields
I’m doing an all nighter next week but as it turns out the election is during a pre booked week of annual leave anyway. I reckon the exit poll will probably tell you what you need to know. If any particular seat is of interest the declaration time in 2019 is here - the Sunak / Hunt / Mogg ones for example were all in the region of 0400 I think electionresults.parliament.uk |
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