Jun 2024
10:21pm, 25 Jun 2024
28,146 posts
|
richmac
Lol, for a guy whose all about left wing purity they agree with Faragé on a couple of big issues.
|
Jun 2024
10:29pm, 25 Jun 2024
21,706 posts
|
Chrisull
@Johnny Blaze - the polls are wrong in America and have been since 2020. Not massively but they've been consistently under estimating the Democrats. Proof is in weird samples showing the young swinging massively to Trump and the old swinging massively to Biden. Neither is true, and both feel instinctively wrong as well, they have over-engaged polling groups, that would seem to be the problem (possibly too many low quality partisan polls) Also Democrats are up in all the marginal Senate race polls, but then these same polls have Biden behind Trump in many of them. It is definitely unusual for states to consistently vote for one party's senator and then the other party as president. Biden being equal is very good news, it means he's winning. It will be close, but basically Biden holds Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, then he wins. And my opinion is currently he looks like doing that. Trump's conviction was the tipping point. |
Jun 2024
10:44pm, 25 Jun 2024
11,294 posts
|
Fields
simbil wrote: Hmm, seems like some evidence of the extreme left being Putin apologists right here on this thread. Interesting you didn’t see fit to quote the remaining part of the post which was anti-war, unlike the NATO cheerleaders I just want the war to end. The ongoing loss of life is tragic and so far all for nothing. I can’t see how people killing each other is bringing anyone towards a peaceful outcome - When the rich wage war it's the poor who die Wonder how many people have been needlessly thrown into the meat grinder since that post? |
|
Jun 2024
10:47pm, 25 Jun 2024
11,295 posts
|
Fields
richmac wrote: Lol, for a guy whose all about left wing purity they agree with Faragé on a couple of big issues. Might as well say that if I’m a vegetarian and had a moustache in the 80s I agree with Hitler on a couple of big issues too 🙄 |
Jun 2024
10:53pm, 25 Jun 2024
32,584 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
"It is definitely unusual for states to consistently vote for one party's senator and then the other party as president." The story seems to be that. People vote Dem in Senate races but the support disappears when Biden comes into the picture. It's a puzzle. |
|
Jun 2024
7:36am, 26 Jun 2024
28,151 posts
|
richmac
That's good news Chris hope you are right.
|
Jun 2024
10:13am, 26 Jun 2024
27,980 posts
|
TROSaracen
Hmmm I’m not as confident as Chris. ‘Polls wrong since 2020’ covers, well, the mid terms, when Trump was not on the ballot. Last two times Trump was on the ballot, 2020 and 2016, polls underestimated the Republican vote. Trump is a personality cult, almost detached from mainstream the GOP at large/Senate votes etc. The needle may have shifted a bit after the convictions, but far from decisively. Still all to play for. The other thing is that, and I know I’ll get flamed for this, but Trump is a good campaigner. He works the crowd, and increases his vote. He should have been 15 points down in 2020, but hauled himself close in an election he started with a Sunak like reputation. I had a look at the 2020 debate highlights and Biden was sharp, animated, expressive - I have my doubts as to him being at that level still. Democrats know it; calling the first debate before the convention leaves the door open to change the ticket if he crashes and burns. A bit of echo chamberism would be comforting, but the truth is it’s still a toss up, and plenty of pot holes to come for Biden. |
|
Jun 2024
11:33am, 26 Jun 2024
27,982 posts
|
TROSaracen
"It is definitely unusual for states to consistently vote for one party's senator and then the other party as president." It’s not unusual in Trump-World if it is unusual in US politics generally. There’s a swathe of old School republicans who hate Trump and won’t vote for him but will vote GOP in other votes. Likewise there’s Trump cultists who hate the GOP and will only vote for their hero directly. It’s very hard to measure this with the usual algorithms around registered voters and independents. When the Senate polls contradict the Trump vs Biden polls, they just reflect the balance between these populations. And I fear these lead to underestimating Trump, as per 2016 and 2020. |
Jun 2024
11:35am, 26 Jun 2024
24,743 posts
|
larkim
Funny how this has now turned into the "betting" election. Davey reports having had a flutter on 2010. And probably gives a good explanation of the fact that in every population of people who have an "interest", there is a subset that like to bet on that area of interest. The guy who bet on himself to lose from Labour should be sanctioned; after all, whilst the result was uncertain, he could personally take steps to ensure that he didn't win, so was actually capable of manipulating the outcome. Even though I bet he felt it was like betting on Man Utd to win the FA cup when you're a Liverpool fan, just to earn some money from the crushing disappointment! |
Jun 2024
11:43am, 26 Jun 2024
50,299 posts
|
HappyG(rrr)
Larkim, it was more like Mark Rashford betting on Liverpool to beat Man U, when he can influence it by being sh*t. So a much more serious offence to bet against yourself when you can influence the outcome. I agree the intention was almost certainly NOT to do that, but it doesn't matter, it shouldn't even be possible to do that. Immediate dismissal. I'd just say why not make it really simple and take any debate out of the matter - politicians can't bet on politics. End of? What's so controversial about that? It's not taking away some fundamental human right (gambling is a nasty business anyway, imho.) And politics isn't meant to be "a bit of fun". It's about governing the country and the world for the benefit of all, not for the fun and profit of a few. Grrr. |
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Jan 2025
-
Economics
Jan 2025
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018