Jun 2024
10:03am, 24 Jun 2024
28,117 posts
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richmac
I agree with Larkim. Oddly I see this as a purge of the right, a lot of deep seated Troy voters won't go anywhere near reform and will see Tory gains in locals etc as re enforcement of their position. |
Jun 2024
10:03am, 24 Jun 2024
5,395 posts
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paulcook
Easy to say that now in hindsight, but not sure that was based on fact. Corbyn polled more in 2019 than any Labour election since 2001. And that was a bad result. If Tory figures lose millions of voters, it might be a different matter. Similar to Corbyn though from 2017 to 2019, I get the impression a lot aren't going to bother at all, so it's up to a new leader to create whatever vision is sound. But generally the world loves hyperbole hence the "Tories are dead". |
Jun 2024
10:03am, 24 Jun 2024
5,347 posts
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J2R
larkim, yes, but the current manifestation of the Tory Party doesn't bear much resemblance to the Tory Party which dominated British politics for the last 100 or so years, having been taken over by UKIP entryists a while back and then gone slowly insane. Notably, they are not 'broadly conservative' - they are revolutionary, tearing things up rather than conserving them.
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Jun 2024
10:10am, 24 Jun 2024
24,714 posts
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larkim
You could say the same about Corbyn's Labour party. Factions come and go and pull the parties around, but they tend to revert back to their long term norm. I don't buy that Starmer et al are now occupying the ground that the likes of Major, Clarke, Cameron, Osborne, etc previously occupied, so the fact that that space is vacant means the Tories can revert there and pressure Labour in the future. The nutjobs on the extreme will persist to a degree (cf. the noise that the pro-Corbyn types still make within Labour) but ought to lose their influence as electoral credibility in the centre reasserts itself. It is not beyond possibility that the vast majority of the MPs returned from this election for the Tories still reflect the nutjob wing of the party, in which case it will make it harder for them to return to the centre. But I still would expect it to happen. (Has anyone done any analysis of what the likely make up of the parliamentary Tory party might look like based on the individual leanings of those who look safest / most likely to win?) |
Jun 2024
11:16am, 24 Jun 2024
32,564 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I think their punishment needs to be as severe as possible given 14 wasted years. I'm here for it.
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Jun 2024
11:29am, 24 Jun 2024
5,348 posts
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J2R
I'm waiting for all the headlines in the right wing press about how Labour have failed in the election, when the Tories just manage to get over 100 seats.
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Jun 2024
11:33am, 24 Jun 2024
5,396 posts
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paulcook
Look at the DM (might have been the Express I honestly can't remember) today. Headline, 10 days to save the country from supermajority. They've given up winning, it's now the margin despite the fact there's theoretically no difference whatever the size of any working majority.
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Jun 2024
11:52am, 24 Jun 2024
32,565 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I've seen an article which says that whilst a small number of MPs may give the Tories HR problems in filling opposition shadow roles, the difference between say, an 80 seat majority and a 200 seat majority may not in fact be that great. What really matters is the attitude of the governing party to the opposition. If they play a reasonably straight bat then the opposition gets a fair shake. If they act a la Maybot and Johnson, they could take the attitude that they give the opposition as little a say in matters as possible. "For all her affection for the House of Commons, Theresa May decided not to give parliament a meaningful role in the decision on what a Brexit deal should look like. Even with a slim and then non-existent majority she was able to proceed – ultimately to her own detriment – without allowing meaningful scrutiny of her plans, at one stage refusing to allow inconvenient opposition or backbench debates in the Commons for a period of over five months." |
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Jun 2024
11:56am, 24 Jun 2024
5,397 posts
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paulcook
Johnny Blaze wrote: Tories HR problems in filling opposition shadow roles That's if the Tories are opposition!!! Though, you raise a good point about whoever is in opposition that somebody possibly raised before about who it will be and any possible coalition of opposition. If no party is huge in number they may need more than one party to fill all shadow roles. Are shadow cabinet positions even a requirement?! |
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Jun 2024
11:59am, 24 Jun 2024
24,719 posts
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larkim
Well, when the left were on the receiving end of Johnson's 80+ majority, we all viewed it as being "he can do what he like", so any majority more than that probably doesn't really bring much additional power, assuming the Labour Party continue to have minor fissures and cracks in party discipline. Lack of discipline may be even harder, in fact, when 30-50 MPs can actually band together and defy the Whips without actually causing a govt defeat.
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