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Oct 2023
6:45pm, 19 Oct 2023
64,595 posts
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LindsD
I am also hopeful of good news in the morning. I guess there might be exit polls at 10?
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Oct 2023
6:49pm, 19 Oct 2023
3,466 posts
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paulcook
Current betting odds
Mid Beds
Conservative 50% chance
Labour 40%
Lib Dem 10%
Ie if Labour and Lib Dem would prefer GTTO then one has to stand down and not try today
Tamworth
Labour 75%
Conservative 25%
That’s as close to an early opinion poll as you’re likely to get.
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Oct 2023
6:52pm, 19 Oct 2023
29,714 posts
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fetcheveryone
They don’t do exit polls for by-elections I think. Maybe not a big enough sample.
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Oct 2023
6:52pm, 19 Oct 2023
3,467 posts
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paulcook
As for FPTP vs PR, if Muslim voters leave Tories en masse and vote Green or Lib Dem, right now (with FPTP and Labour heading to a large victory) it’s unlikely to swing many seats and won’t impact Parliament. Under PR you’d get more representation from Green and Lib Dem in parliament.
And while today that goes for the Palestine / Israel issue, that could follow for other policies. Just my 2cents.
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Oct 2023
6:53pm, 19 Oct 2023
15,644 posts
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jda
I also anticipate a Tory hold and Labour using it as an excuse to move even further right. Like Uxbridge.
Prove me wrong, voters! Or Starmer!
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Oct 2023
6:55pm, 19 Oct 2023
64,596 posts
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LindsD
Ah. Bugger.
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Oct 2023
7:12pm, 19 Oct 2023
31,093 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Malibu Rishi described as “Dr Death” by govt scientist. That’s all right then.
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Oct 2023
7:14pm, 19 Oct 2023
4,780 posts
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J2R
Unfortunately I suspect that mid-Beds is one of those areas where the voters would simply find it physically impossible to vote for Labour. They'd be standing there in the polling booth and no matter how hard they tried, the pencil would move and put its cross next to the Tory instead.
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Oct 2023
7:14pm, 19 Oct 2023
328 posts
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5km_is_plenty
What swing is required in both seats to get Labour win(s)?
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Oct 2023
7:15pm, 19 Oct 2023
329 posts
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5km_is_plenty
Unfortunately I suspect that mid-Beds is one of those areas where the voters would simply find it physically impossible to vote for Labour. They'd be standing there in the polling booth and no matter how hard they tried, the pencil would move and put its cross next to the Tory instead.
A bit like where I live. No chance of Lucy Bitchface ever getting unseated. 
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