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May 2022
1:09pm, 31 May 2022
27,377 posts
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Johnny Blaze
If he wins...
If ifs and ands were pots and pans there'd be no need for tinkers.
I don't *think* he will win, but yes, he could. In which event the chaos and poison continues unabated vs... kick him out and sluice out Number 10 and wash away the stink of him and his nest of rats.
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May 2022
1:20pm, 31 May 2022
2,344 posts
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Mushroom
Thatcher won her NC vote..
May won hers..
It just seemed to enable their detractors from then on in
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May 2022
1:22pm, 31 May 2022
1,166 posts
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paulcook
Everything Johnson does is about Johnson and not about the Conservative party. Surely even the rest of those fools in parliament can see that. So a win for Johnson might well be good for him but to the detriment of the party and their individual futures.
I can’t see anything other than a well orchestrated vote of no confidence. If they want him gone they have to do it right and get him gone.
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May 2022
1:38pm, 31 May 2022
27,378 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Here's my take:
The 80 Red Wallers will punt him because otherwise they are out of a job in 2024. It's just about the numbers and pure self-interest.
There's a bunch of other "marginals" who will also punt him for much the same reasons: step forward Raab C Brexit, Iain Duncan Shitbag and Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker. 35?
There will be a constituency of "grandees" of longstanding who hate what he is doing to the party, so they will punt him. 30-50?
There is probably a minority of cabinet ministers who have seen his uselessness close up and hate his guts. 10?
So that's 175. Ish.
Plus, he's stopped returning Nadine's midnight drunk texts so that's 176. Pretty close, I'd say.
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May 2022
1:41pm, 31 May 2022
17,994 posts
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larkim
If you resign and call a confidence vote, like Major did, it's a "put up or shut up" call which is winnable by the incumbent.
But if a NC is called on you it changes the tone completely; 50+ of your own, loyal, parliamentary colleagues want you out and you're already weakened even if you win with a margin that in any other vote would be deemed to be convincing.
Not saying Johnson would necessarily be forced out if a NC was held, but it's more likely than not. But as we've seen before, he's pretty teflon and thick skinned so I wouldn't put it past him to brazen things out.
But if he does lose the confidence of 50+ MPs, then wins the NC 65/35 (say) there's a non-zero chance that Labour and the LidDems will be able to harness some of the 35% to massively disrupt Johnson's government.
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May 2022
1:59pm, 31 May 2022
3,100 posts
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B Rubble
I think Johnson is pretty lazy and is getting fed up with having to deal with all of the cost of living and Brexit mayhem, together with the NI and Scottish people giving him a hard time wanting to leave the UK. It's quite likely that after facing a NC vote he'll take a well-paid retirement on the speaking circuit, trawling out the same old rubbish that he's always done, to a sycophantic giggling audience. He probably thinks Churchill had it easy with just WW2 to deal with!
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May 2022
1:59pm, 31 May 2022
27,379 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Johnson currently -15 on Conservative Home Shit Parade.
Ben Wallace +85
Zahawi +66
Zahawi... Jaysusmaryandjoseph
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May 2022
2:08pm, 31 May 2022
4,209 posts
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J2R
I still think that if the Tories get rid of Johnson they're stuffed, notwithstanding his plummeting approval rating with the public. I just hope they don't realise it yet. Their record in office has been utterly dire, and the country is unquestionably in a far worse state than it was a few years ago, with no prospect of any improvement in the foreseeable future.
But all this has been masked by the fact that they've got TV celeb 'Boris' there, with his quips and his funny hair and his 'not a politician' act. The Tories have managed to convince themselves that they're popular, but they're not - it's BoJo who is (or was) popular. Once he's gone, people will be more likely to see the horrendous reality beneath the surface, and try as they might, the right-wing press are going to find it impossibly hard to polish the turds that are Truss, Sunak, Raab, etc., in the way they could with 'Boris'.
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May 2022
3:07pm, 31 May 2022
18,832 posts
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richmac
The longer they leave the Johnson in post the more ready made the labour election campaign is "Why did they leave it so long?" "They knew he was damaging working people but chose not to act"
Not a good look is it.
Are we not overdue a picture of Kittens?
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May 2022
3:16pm, 31 May 2022
42,465 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
JB, you're picking up my cynicism about the staying power of Johnson and the Tories!
I was wondering this morning what the next election campaign will be like if Johnson is still in place. My (probably incorrect) conclusion is that, going into an election with a history of Brexit chaos, economic woes, lies and general malfeasance and corruption will only lead him to conclude he has to give red wall types and his core Tory base lots of red meat as far as the culture wars are concerned: Loud rhetoric against the EU A war on woke - whatever that looks like A referendum on capital punishment That kind of thing. I suspect, in short, that he will promise anything and everything, hoping that his base will overlook the destruction he has wrought in their desire to reverse social and cultural changes. He probably won't do half of what he says anyway. It's a tried and tested formula - promise the earth and people will believe it if it's what they want and you say it often enough. It won't be a "platform" : it will just be a grab bag of populist shite intended to grab votes and polarise the country.
I think even policies like Rwanda for immigrants, weights and measures in lbs and ounces etc. will be enough for him to keep the 20% on top of the true blues to get him 40% and a Tory win.
And I think his Conservative party MPs know this too. A few principled ones are saying that you can't just lie and dodge, it's unethical. But I'd say more are akin to the public and just saying he's good enough and he's got a few populist vote winners.
But who can say. Fascinating and horrifying at the same time.  G
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