Nov 2020
2:58pm, 11 Nov 2020
24,060 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Assuming Biden gets to 306 they need to flip at least 3 states or get almost 40 electors to vote against their pledge. Can't see it happening but perhaps the latter has never happened for over a century because nobody had the brass neck to try it. I still think Drumpf is pissing into the wind although, as I have often said, he may only be one man but he corrupts and debases everything and everyone he touches, so who knows.
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Nov 2020
2:59pm, 11 Nov 2020
24,061 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I should add my understanding of the EC is wiki only and even that was a skim read as it is a very complex system. Can't see 3 states going against the popular vote myself, but we shall soon find out.
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Nov 2020
3:03pm, 11 Nov 2020
24,062 posts
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Johnny Blaze
My guess is that the only way states will flip either way (ballots or electors) is if he wins back each state with an incontrovertible case. If he can't and the results stand, no state will repudiate the outcome of a free and fair election. He has no chance unless he has evidence. He has no evidence so it won't work. Famous last words... |
Nov 2020
3:07pm, 11 Nov 2020
12,646 posts
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larkim
No I agree; but the mood is different now. Imagine a state with 16 votes in it's power with a Republican (pro Trump) governor and / or Republican (pro Trump) state legisltaure. Then imagine in that state, where the margin of victory is say 20,000 votes, that Trump files a successful suit where some evidence of fraud is unequivocally found. Or perhaps a mistaken destruction of 50,000 votes post-counting. Something unlikely but possible. In that state, would it be so hard for the governor / legislature to argue that they have lost confidence in the popular vote so are duty bound to fulfil their own office requirements by making (partisan) nominations? It's not beyond the realms of possibility that people could behave like that riding on the wave of local pro-Trump enthusiasm, is it? I'd be 99% certain that it won't happen, or won't happen to the degree necessary to swing the vote, but it would be a foolish democrat who wasn't on the alert from it potentially happening. |
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Nov 2020
3:19pm, 11 Nov 2020
24,063 posts
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Johnny Blaze
It's all down to evidence is my feeling. And there doesn't seem to be much floating about judging by the number of suits which have already been chucked out. I'm thinking that even the lawyers pursuing these baseless suits know how much bullshit they are. Even if he finds decisive issues in one state I very much doubt he will find issues in 3.
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Nov 2020
3:45pm, 11 Nov 2020
3,221 posts
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J2R
I believe the issue of faithless electors was dealt with in a ruling by the Supreme Court this summer - if they don't follow the popular vote in the state, they are kicked out.
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Nov 2020
3:57pm, 11 Nov 2020
16,892 posts
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Chrisull
They tried with the faithless electors in 2018 I believe.... and got nowhere. J2R is correct. Trump has no evidence, so he can't win any cases of fraud. At the moment there is no reason to think his attempts will work. 20 suits tossed out. 1 he won wasn't fraud, it was where the Republican observers in PA were ordered back further than they should have been. But in covid times, you can see why people get itchy. Even if they find issues, they are not going to reverse the individual state result. Best they can hope for is like a revote, like in North carolina after the Repuiblicans were found guilty of clear fraud. nytimes.com Made no sodding difference as the new Republican candidate still won. At the mo, sit tight, he's just muck throwing - let's see Mid December where this should all fizzle out as expected. Until then, it's Trump just trying to get in the news so he can raise money to cover his 1.6 billion debt! And it's quite funny because he's pretending that any money raised goes to fight fraud but the small print says half goes to pay his campaign debts. Some supporters receive up to 28 messages a day!!!! |
Nov 2020
4:00pm, 11 Nov 2020
36,416 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Is there a filibustering possibility here? Isn't there a deadline early December (8th) when all Electors have to do their vote, which means if some states are held up by legal proceedings could the whole thing be invalidated or something?
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Nov 2020
4:03pm, 11 Nov 2020
24,064 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I think it's really complicated! Trust the Yanks to let the lawyers trample all over what should be a simple process.
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Nov 2020
4:21pm, 11 Nov 2020
3,222 posts
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J2R
Maybe I'm being naive, but I think that Trump's hopes of the Supreme Court acting as some kind of deus ex machina for him are misplaced. Of course they are conservative leaning, as a result of his machinations. But even so, I seriously doubt they would runner-stamp something which is clearly illegal and flies in the face of the US constitution.
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