Jun 2020
2:11pm, 15 Jun 2020
16,217 posts
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Chrisull
The other thing to remember was/is Hilary was disliked (and a fair amount of sexism was mixed in there) by many, Biden still has the Obama aura around him, and he's liked and popular, there is no anti-Clinton vibe to fight against. He's not viewed as extreme as Sanders would have been, so it's quite hard for clear attack likes other than generic anti Democrat ones and he's old and senile one, which also rebounds on Trump.
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Jun 2020
2:41pm, 15 Jun 2020
4,138 posts
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run free
Normally the rep view is that the Democractic candidates are the anti-christ, satan's spawn etc and that people like Trump are God's chosen to pave the way for the return of Christ..... It's what have received in the past about Obama, Hilary and Trump from family members (who are republicans - don't ask) and FB feeds.
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Jun 2020
2:46pm, 15 Jun 2020
27,813 posts
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macca 53
I have never been asked for my opinion by a polling company (nor has anyone I know) - that’s why I give it on here! 😁😁
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Jun 2020
2:47pm, 15 Jun 2020
10,255 posts
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rf_fozzy
JR - MRP models based on polls for 2017 and 2019 GEs were pretty good. 538's MRP model gave Trump a 1-in-3 chance in 2016. |
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Jun 2020
2:48pm, 15 Jun 2020
10,256 posts
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rf_fozzy
I have been polled (post 2015 GE I think) by Ipsos Mori. But only once.
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Jun 2020
2:50pm, 15 Jun 2020
10,257 posts
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rf_fozzy
For those who don't know what MRP is: en.wikipedia.org yougov.co.uk Note that because UK GEs are essentially a result based on 650 elections, the uncertainty in results is greater than in US elections. However MRP tries to take some of this into account by estimating that similar groups and populations will likely vote in similar ways. |
Jun 2020
3:03pm, 15 Jun 2020
2,381 posts
|
Canute
It is clear that there is intense polarisation among those who use social media. What is less easy to ascertain is what the majority of the population think. We have the polls; we have Fox, which is held in distain by liberal minded people; and we have ‘reputable’ news media (NYT, Washington Post etc) who are branded as fake by Trump and his supporters. In all of this, I am inclined to trust polls and the reputable news media. However I accept polls are a statement about current opinion and hypothetical intentions; not a forecast of what will happen in Nov, while most articles in the reputable new media are written from a liberal perspective. To me, the fact that Trump has rarely obtained above 45% approval in the polls and is now trending consistently down towards 40% indicates that he is in trouble. I am concerned that when a nation feels insecure they are inclined to vote conservatively, but in contrast, the wide support for BLM is encouraging. |
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Jun 2020
3:14pm, 15 Jun 2020
10,260 posts
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rf_fozzy
Btw - in case anyone missed it -> bbc.co.uk This announcement by BP - first acknowledgement of stranded FF assets. And what many have been warning about for about 10-12 years. |
Jun 2020
3:20pm, 15 Jun 2020
16,694 posts
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Bazoaxe
To be contacted in polls you need to sign up and then go through loads of other polls on stuff before you get included in the real polls. I think they want to build a profile if you to help them and also keep out people who might want to influence the results. I did sign up for yougov but got fed up with the daily question s on whether I used Persil or daz and gave up. |
Jun 2020
4:24pm, 15 Jun 2020
1,850 posts
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JRitchie
A shockwave indeed fozzy. Writing down / impairing oil assets isn't cash out the door of course but its a recognition that something you have isnt worth as much as you thought last week - and it will affect the ability for energy companies to raise money. There is a huge uncertainty in predicting future oil price and of course if the sentiment for oil price goes up - so those impairments can be reversed. The thing with the BP news is that many other companies will look to the assumptions BP have taken (after all there should be some consistency) - so expect other news to follow suit. Really pleased however to hear last week that Total had bought into 50% of Seagreens wind farm off Angus and on the same day the wind farm received financial consent). We also have the Round 4 licencing by Scotwind. Hopefully the UK can pick up a good share of the supply chain for all of this. |
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