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Nov 2019
1:39pm, 22 Nov 2019
15,513 posts
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Chrisull
Horrible set of bye-election results last night. Tories took one off Labour in Wales, one off Lib Dems in Chichester and stopped the SNP winning a Tory seat in Scotland because the Lib Dems stood a council candidate who took 7% that was needed. And they held on elsewhere. I'm fearing the worst now.
Labour have had a Ok/moderate first debate where Corbyn was deemed to have done at fair, released their manifesto, and this time last time is where it started changing for them. This time a) no-one believes the manifesto because there is simply too much in it - plenty of good, but not even talking costs/taxes, there simply isn't the time/size of state capable of doing it at all. Too much headline stuff and middle class giveaways (nationalise everything, scrap tuition fees), not enough simple fairly easy to do and will make people's lives better stuff (get rid of the benefits cap, change pips eligibility and all kinds of shitty means testing).
Also in the polls the Brexit party standing in the north is showing that Tories will take places like Grimsby currently, as Lab voters go directly to BXP (although I'd query Survation's figures - we know 1 in 4 Lab voters are Leavers even up north. But in the Grimsby poll their vote is down from 49% to 31% , which is roughly a 36% change higher than 1 in 3 - which suggests Lab remainers must be going Brexit Party too.... which doesn't make much sense to me or rather all Labour leavers are going BXP, and some Lab remainers will stay at home, and some former UKIPPers are now going BXP).
I'd say Tories on course for 40-50 seat majority, revised from my previous 10-20 one.
Tactical voting seems pointless when you realise only 14-15% of the population would ever consider/do it. (and that's gone up marginally from the previous 2 elections.)
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Nov 2019
1:48pm, 22 Nov 2019
11,483 posts
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Cerrertonia
14-15% of the population seems like a lot in the context of FPTP. In 2017 there were 11 seats with majorities under 100 and more than 30 with majorities under 500.
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Nov 2019
1:58pm, 22 Nov 2019
24,713 posts
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Wriggling Snake
Indeed, tacttical voting is pointless, because who drfines the tactics, everyone has to do the same thing.
The Tories will win. Corbyn unreliable, not credible, neither is McDonell, if you are going to spend pots of money, tell us where it will come from. Ah well. Some people are going to be shat on from a great height.
For some reason, people don't like Swinson either, I don't like the their Brexit policy, but they seem to lack credibility as much as Labour.
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Nov 2019
2:08pm, 22 Nov 2019
15,514 posts
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Chrisull
That's because Swinson is terrible, their policies are either flakey (overturn Brexit without referendum) or downright bad - 1% surplus is austerity++, her comments on nuclear weapons were stupid (especially for a party that used to run on not renewing Trident), her squirrel hunting past adds a degree of yuk too her personally, she comes across as hectoring, non-empathetic, not pragmatic (refusing to consider coalitions). They seem like they are trying to appeal to Tory remainers first, and don't give a stuff about Labour. I say this as someone who liked Charles Kennedy, but the days since he was leader are long gone. The Clegg, Farron, Cable, journey to Swinson one has really been a bad one.
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Nov 2019
2:12pm, 22 Nov 2019
10 posts
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ThePenkethRunner
The Squirrel hunting thing has been proven to be fake as has the story about her husband getting millions of pounds from the EU
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Nov 2019
2:15pm, 22 Nov 2019
15,515 posts
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Chrisull
Yeah that was kind of the cherry on the icing on the cake, the cake is still inedible without it :-). I didn't believe the EU one, so hadn't commented on that.
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Nov 2019
2:40pm, 22 Nov 2019
3,636 posts
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run free
Mrs shanksi - Singapore has 2 parties but one party has had the house majority by at least 90%. The party in power seems to have a lot of MPs that have PhDs or at least a bachelor degree. The public transport is amazing. And have just been checking out their cycle highways (called PCNs - Park Connectors). It really is excellent. However think car Drivers still a little too close... opps very off topic.
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Nov 2019
2:51pm, 22 Nov 2019
1,396 posts
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um
[Singapore does show the way ... good and bad. The 'single' party works well - the people I spoke to said 'vote for that, or you know what's coming' - ie no investment, road repairs, housing repairs etc until you have learnt to vote for the right party.
It is very much a benign form of dictatorship - as long as you fit in and agree & comply with their strategy and values. Or you can leave ...
It's the safest and most polite place I've ever been in - as long you don't chew gum, do drugs, drop litter, cross the road without a green light etc etc. And it has English plugs!
Interesting the mix of automation & basic - eg many of the MRT (tube) lines are fully automated, no driver or guard (let SWT think on that), yet there's a host of manual labour sweeping leaves each day.]
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Nov 2019
2:58pm, 22 Nov 2019
776 posts
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Roberto
Swinson is awful with a pretty poor voting record on many issues that she is trying to sell herself on.
While a minister in the coalition government, she voted with the tory whip more often than several career Tory mps. Lib dems enabled the extreme austerity measures that we have seen. Dont trust her whatsoever.
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Nov 2019
3:03pm, 22 Nov 2019
29,680 posts
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SPR
If the Lib Dems actually got a majority it would be because most people want that policy...
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
