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Jul 2022
9:30pm, 13 Jul 2022
12,986 posts
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jda
A GE is not itself a referendum on independence but is generally taken to be an endorsement of the manifesto of whichever party wins.
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Jul 2022
9:33pm, 13 Jul 2022
3,227 posts
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JRitchie
So it’s not a referendum on independence then.
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Jul 2022
9:34pm, 13 Jul 2022
23,124 posts
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Bazoaxe
It’s a stretch to think the snp will win the GE though.
Best they can hope for is over 50% vote in Scotland and saying that’s a mandate to open negotiations. Doesn’t mean whoever wins the gE had to agree though
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Jul 2022
9:48pm, 13 Jul 2022
42,940 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
For GE it would be seats in Scotland. For Holyrood it would be a majority of seats for independence supporting parties.
A party can stand on any issue it likes. If I stand on a ticket of a single issue like "free candyfloss for everyone" that is perfectly legitimate. If I get a majority of votes then that can be taken as a the majority support my policy of free candyfloss and I should deliver on that promise.
The undemocratic thing is to claim in your manifesto on which you are being elected a load of aspirations that you then choose NOT to enact. Like most political parties do.
The SNP will be offering a clear choice to the electorate. If the people are not supportive of independence, then the votes for the SNP will go down massively and independence is off. I don't see why anti-independence supporters (those of you who vote for Labour, LibDems, Conservatives or others in Scotland) wouldn't be delighted by this. Surely, if you believe 55% or more of people are against independence, then your preferred parties should gain more seats. What's to lose?  G
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Jul 2022
9:50pm, 13 Jul 2022
42,941 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
And yes JR, this thread was started specifically as a place to debate pros and cons of Scottish independence. It was started by a non-Scotland resident to understand what the arguments were for and against. And as with most threads on Fetch, it's a pretty fair and friendly place to put opposing views and hear each others' arguments. G
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Jul 2022
10:07pm, 13 Jul 2022
23,125 posts
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Bazoaxe
Hg I find that confusing. So I agree if the snp win the GE they can enact their mandate and hold a referendum.
They are not going to win the GE. They will win the majority of Scottish seats and they might get more than half the Scottish votes. Neither though allows them to hold an independence referendum.
Note I have said consistently with Brexit I think there is reason to hold a referendum. That doesn’t look possible and also I don’t believe either side wants it right now as it could go either way.
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Jul 2022
10:56pm, 13 Jul 2022
3,228 posts
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JRitchie
I don’t disagree with what you write HG. But that still wouldn’t make it a referendum on free candy floss. I may want free candy floss, but think the NHS is more important to me and vote for the party that does more with that. Equally I may not want free candy floss but vote for you because the other candidates I really don’t like their single policy of taxing chocolate.
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Jul 2022
7:40am, 14 Jul 2022
42,949 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
But they are being forced into it by a UK govt that won't sanction a referendum.
What else do you think they should do? I suppose an alternative would be a referendum to say "Should the UK govt allow Scotland to hold a referendum on independence?"
But a referendum on whether there should be a referendum sounds a bit... meta! G
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Jul 2022
9:37am, 14 Jul 2022
23,127 posts
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Bazoaxe
I agree there is no clear process other than a section 30 agreed by both governments.
The question is how to get there and I think snp demonstrating significant support is the route. The current of being just under and occasionally over 50% is not enough
Sturgeons strategy needs to change as right now she preaches to the converted and hopes the old no voters die or become unable to vote and are replaced by younger yes voters.
Two key things sturgeon could do to try and get current No voters onside. Better governance under devolution and stop blaming the tories. Also hey us acknowledge the risks of independence and set out a clear plan on how they will be managed.
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Jul 2022
10:45am, 14 Jul 2022
42,955 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Bazo, that's how to address your concerns (which is reasonable, as you are speaking from your own position, of course!) But that's not necessarily the politically expedient way!
As you know, I've agreed with you in the past, in some ways I think the threshold for independence should be perhaps 60% in a referendum, for a change of this magnitude, rather than a simple 50% majority.
But we have to find a route for that referendum, again. There is too much demand for change (whether it's 45% or 50% or something else, it's not a tiny 10% minority with loud voices, it's a lot of mostly reasonable people, like me, who are very unhappy with the status quo).
I also agree with you that during a referendum I would like to see some real and honest statistics, both for and against. However, I am sceptical that we'll get that. Given the way politics works. Headlines and soundbites. Both camps have been guilty of that.
And final point - it is *irrelevant* (IMHO) how well or badly the SNP do as a devolved government. That has no bearing on the potential success of an independent Scotland. As I said above, a. it won't be the SNP in charge (certainly not in its current guise, because it won't exist) and b. running an independent country will be completely different from running a subset of devolved issues. Both better and worse in that there will be greater scope to both succeed and fail!
At least in this forum it's a reasoned set of chats though! Have a great day everyone. G
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