Coronavirus discussion thread

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ThorntonRunner Jan 2021 2:20pm, 21 Jan 2021 4,506 posts	0 ThorntonRunner I think it's a calculated risk, driven by the need to try to get the infection rate down and protect as many people as possible. The Israeli paper is I think a little misleading - 33% effectiveness is basically during the three week period after the vaccine has been given. It doesn't tell us what the effectiveness is of one dose after three weeks, as in Israel everyone then gets their second dose. It's always been stated that effectiveness builds up over time after the vaccination, so until there is hard data to the contrary, I'm reasonably happy with the suggestion that 50% effectiveness is likely - that seems to be consistent with the Israeli figure given that many of +ve cases after one dose in Israel will have been before immunity had built up
Little Miss Happy Jan 2021 2:23pm, 21 Jan 2021 4,197 posts	0 Little Miss Happy I don't think it was necessarily a rush to be first LL more a case of giving the maximum number of people some protection in the shortest time. Of course it does also mean that they can tell the public that the end is in sight though I note that most people don't seem to have noticed that even on the proposed new schedule everyone will only have been offered their first jab by the end of the year so second jab and maximum immunity for the later groups won't be until the beginning of next year.
sallykate Jan 2021 2:25pm, 21 Jan 2021 7,452 posts	0 sallykate Have to say that I agree that the schedule as presented for approval by the regulatory bodies should be the one that's followed.
larkim Jan 2021 2:34pm, 21 Jan 2021 13,302 posts	0 larkim 33% effectiveness is still an awful lot better than zero effectiveness! I think the experts are divided on the one shot vs two shot approach. I've not listened to all of this, but it was discussed on "how to vaccinate the world" bbc.co.uk
sallykate Jan 2021 2:36pm, 21 Jan 2021 7,454 posts	0 sallykate Have just picked up on the "useful links" feature - I'll try to keep on top of posting useful links shared here in the sidebar (maybe just the ten most recent to avoid building a huge sidebar).
larkim Jan 2021 2:52pm, 21 Jan 2021 13,303 posts	0 larkim In that episode I've linked to, Dr David Speigelhalter (generally a "sound" mind) reported that the Pfizer jab had reported efficacy after 15-21 days with a single shot of 89% from the trials, though the data wasn't entirely robust. He also said that the AZ shot had I think 73% efficacy after a single shot after 22-29 days. There was also comment that in general vaccines work well with decent periods of time in between shots, and 12 weeks shouldn't be a concern. So I suppose if it's the choice of 2.5m people vaccinated to 95% efficacy (double shot) or 5m people at 89% (single shot) it looks credible to get more people at least part protected. Even if efficacy was only just over 50% at first, and there's no harm in the delay, then single shot looks a decent tactic.
Shades Jan 2021 3:01pm, 21 Jan 2021 407 posts	0 Shades The subject of the 33% efficacy after first jab was mentioned on Politics Live programme today. There was a health reporter who stated that the 33% was after 14 days when the body's immune system starts to show a reaction. As the days go on that efficacy increases with time. She mentioned a graph but the graph which I didn't see or it wasn't shown.
Ocelot Spleens Jan 2021 3:01pm, 21 Jan 2021 29,857 posts	0 Ocelot Spleens 50% is very good for a new vaccine for a new virus. A bit of fag packet arithmetic. 3.5 million over 80...80% of deaths in over 80s..so you reduce current levels by 50%..you would still get what 1000 to 1300 deaths a day! Hospitalsations may well be better. Current restrictions must stay, social distancing must stay, right around until the infection rate is really low....the rate of infection is even now still the problem. If you ask me this method is all about pressure on the NHS, rather than the absolute best use of the vaccine. They're firefighting, but as I said it is pretty much a toss up which way you go. It also wouldn't surprise me if they change tack but they would need too soon.
Ocelot Spleens Jan 2021 3:02pm, 21 Jan 2021 29,858 posts	0 Ocelot Spleens Larks..Ta...that looks a good listen.
Ocelot Spleens Jan 2021 3:04pm, 21 Jan 2021 29,859 posts	0 Ocelot Spleens yes...so again...you come out of your home...get your jab...go right back in and stay there at least for 3 weeks....I.wish that message was rammed home more...I have nagged by dad every day about that...Nothing changes yet.