Coronavirus discussion thread

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Hunkyteddy Jan 2021 11:21am, 21 Jan 2021 709 posts	0 Hunkyteddy I still think it's too early to draw international comparisons. The situation in Brazil is likely to get worse due to their strain and (fingers crossed) our speed in vaccinating should see our death figures falling sooner than other countries. Also, there are different ways on recording. Do we know how we compare to other countries in terms if excess deaths, for instance.
ChrisHB Jan 2021 11:28am, 21 Jan 2021 20,462 posts	0 ChrisHB I do not believe that excess deaths is the gold standard in reporting after the first year. Because - let's say 10,000 people die from COVID in 2020 who otherwise would have died from the complications of old age in 2021. That gives 2021 a head start of 10,000 fewer deaths than normal. I hazard a guess that the number of years of life lost is a better standard, but I have made that up all by myself. It's also a better indicator of the impact all these deaths have.
anthonyj89 Jan 2021 11:36am, 21 Jan 2021 98 posts	0 anthonyj89 ChrisHB, that's what makes it so hard for us actuaries. Stakeholders are wanting us to weaken our mortality assumptions based on last year's data, but in reality many of the deaths are accelerated deaths, with a 'stronger' surviving population, and excess mortality will to some extent come out in the wash over the next few years. By how much, is finger in the air stuff.
anthonyj89 Jan 2021 11:37am, 21 Jan 2021 99 posts	0 anthonyj89 On the other hand there might be for example missed cancer diagnoses, which would affect younger people and affect years of life lost to a greater extent than covid ever could.
ThorntonRunner Jan 2021 11:38am, 21 Jan 2021 4,503 posts	0 ThorntonRunner Yes - I suppose at the end of the day everyone dies once, so Chris has a very valid point
Hunkyteddy Jan 2021 11:45am, 21 Jan 2021 710 posts	0 Hunkyteddy I think that will be largely taken into account because of the 5 year average. If the 5 year average is 600k and there were 100k excess deaths, next year the average will be 620k if my maths are right.
Ocelot Spleens Jan 2021 11:50am, 21 Jan 2021 29,849 posts	0 Ocelot Spleens The excess deaths was below normal this summer, that effect was immediate once the covid infection ratewas reduced to very low numbers. fingertips.phe.org.uk
Ocelot Spleens Jan 2021 11:51am, 21 Jan 2021 29,850 posts	0 Ocelot Spleens doh! last summer, i.e June/August 2020
Velociraptor Jan 2021 12:30pm, 21 Jan 2021 51,171 posts	0 Velociraptor I had a little exchange last week with someone on Ravelry who asked if I'd post yarn I'd listed for sale to Brazil. "Normally I'd post to anywhere, but I'm not posting yarn at all at the moment because we're in lockdown," I said. "Oh, yes, you're in the UK, it's bad there," was her response. This was just after flights from Brazil had been suspended due to "their" new virus strain.
Little Miss Happy Jan 2021 1:26pm, 21 Jan 2021 4,196 posts	0 Little Miss Happy Looby Lou - I'm concerned that delaying the second dose of the vaccine may adversely affect efficacy. Whilst I see what the government were trying to do I wouldn't be surprised if it backfired. I'm sure there is more research being done.