Coronavirus discussion thread

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fuzzyduck79 Feb 2021 6:16pm, 8 Feb 2021 76 posts	0 fuzzyduck79 Someone on Five Live a few nights ago who is head of a chain of hotels said UK govt ignored their attempts to sort a raft of issues with the proposed quarantine system. Also pointed out that air con in most hotels recycles the air from room to room without filtration...which is a slight problem. So potentially we might be taking in one live case, putting everyone in a hotel so they can all slowly get infected for 10-14 days and then release several more incubated (but not quite symptomatic yet) into the community. You'd need an effective track and trace program to detect that was happening though, so probably not worth losing any sleep over.
Too Much Water Feb 2021 6:21pm, 8 Feb 2021 8,050 posts	0 Too Much Water This will be common to all hotels globally surely? A lot of the chains have certain brand standards applied globally. I believe there have been cases in Aus / NZ where spread has been via hotel air con systems
simbil Feb 2021 7:08pm, 8 Feb 2021 9,209 posts	0 simbil Don't think Covid is seasonal like Flu, it's just easier for it to spread if more people are indoors. If we open up fully it will spread happily in the Summer - look back to July 4th 2020 when it started rising again as soon as things started opening up.
Fopp Feb 2021 7:27pm, 8 Feb 2021 59 posts	0 Fopp Summer 'cases' were a probably a casedemic. Due to the low prevalence the false positives became material. Deaths is a much better gauge and there were none, statistically speaking. It is definitely seasonal. the reason it and other respiratory viruses are seasonal is not just because you're indoors, there are multiple reasons. Vitamin D deficiency, dry air, cold air allows the virus to linger longer, those are just the ones that immediately come to mind.
Fopp Feb 2021 7:39pm, 8 Feb 2021 60 posts	0 Fopp Also, only the 20-39 group is going up, probably a combination of factors again. Testing capacity increase and I suspect more 20-39 actually getting tested. As we know that age group are much less likely to show symptoms so initially would not have put themselves forward for testing. Obviously it's also possible that increased interaction was a factor but a positive test is not really a case if there are no symptoms and it's not too wild an assumption that asymptomatic cases aren't a particularly good vector of transmission, but I am open to rebuttal here but it is borne out by the other groups not increasing.
simbil Feb 2021 8:24pm, 8 Feb 2021 9,210 posts	0 simbil There are plenty of warm humid countries that covid has torn through. Restrictions and vaccines are the big controlling factors, Summer less so.
sallykate Feb 2021 8:46pm, 8 Feb 2021 7,551 posts	0 sallykate Asymptomatic transmission has been estimated to account for nearly 50% of cases - it's not a trivial vector. I'd have to remind myself at what point false positives become a factor; David Spiegelhalter (I think) explained it well on a More or Less earlier in the year. I'd still be interested to know what we'll end up with as an acceptable risk or number of cases / deaths per year. We will have to get to that. We won't eradicate it but nor can we allow it to dominate in the way that it has - neither from the perspective of ToF's observations about the effect on our daily lives and economy, nor from the perspective of the strain on the NHS.
Cheg Feb 2021 8:50pm, 8 Feb 2021 2,532 posts	0 Cheg Cheers Sallykate. I wouldn’t have expected that. In my head someone who is very symptomatic, sneezes all over the shop big viral load much more likely to spread. Then someone no symptoms more often the receivers rather than spreaders.
Fopp Feb 2021 9:34pm, 8 Feb 2021 61 posts	0 Fopp simbil, if you don't think it's seasonal, how do you explain the deaths in winter and not summer. I am not saying it doesn't spread in the summer at all. However it's low level and immune systems deal with it well. Instead of a more gradual and consistent spread in more temperate regions as you allude to, you get a a large peak in the winter and then a lull in the summer in climates like ours. This is one of the reasons why any kind of restrictions in the summer is such an awful idea, it stops a relatively safe spread and immunity build up, assuming the restriction work. I am sure even the most ardent lockdown advocates on here would acknowledge this. Not including your good self of course
Fopp Feb 2021 9:49pm, 8 Feb 2021 62 posts	0 Fopp Sally, I'd like to see the source of the 50% asymptomatic vector. As I said it's not something I've seen and I don't know how it could be traced? As for false positives, in my mind it's not just discordant results but the fact that the PCR test is the only factor, the actual clinical presentation of the patient is ignored.