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Coronavirus discussion thread

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fuzzyduck79 Feb 2021 9:55pm, 8 Feb 2021 77 posts	Quote Pin fuzzyduck79 Fopp, that graph was ONS data for the summer, which is random community testing, hence independent of which age groups ask to be tested I’d say pubs reopening might explain some part of the 20-39 trend in that graph, but as always there won’t be one simple explanation for what was going on
sallykate Feb 2021 9:59pm, 8 Feb 2021 7,554 posts	Quote Pin sallykate Fopp, surely it’s too difficult to separate out seasonality from the containment measures we had in place - in this country at least? We have no way of knowing what the summer figures would have been without those in place. I’ll happily check the literature to see what the expert consensus is. Even allowing for seasonality, the winter peak is horrendous. And if it doesn’t spread so much in summer there’s little chance of immunity building up in the broader population. It’d be interesting to see some analysis of whether cases are down in younger people now as a result of more in that age bracket having caught it in summer.
fuzzyduck79 Feb 2021 10:00pm, 8 Feb 2021 78 posts	Quote Pin fuzzyduck79 Jeez, read some of your follow up posts and can’t see the point of engaging further Building up immunity via safe spread huh. Think I’d back a vaccine rollout first
sallykate Feb 2021 10:06pm, 8 Feb 2021 7,555 posts	Quote Pin sallykate @Fopp I’ll trawl for the latest asymptomatic transmission figs tomorrow. This is a virus which behaves in ways which are unlike flu. The majority of infected people will not pass it on; a small minority will pass it on to lots (look up “dispersal factor” for more). And if it turns into a serious case it goes well beyond the respiratory system, we’ve learnt it triggers a massive inflammatory response which can affect anywhere in your body - hence long recovery times and also the effectiveness of steroids such as dexamethasone.
Grast_girl Feb 2021 10:06pm, 8 Feb 2021 1,975 posts	Quote Pin Grast_girl We sent all children back to school in unsuitable environments, followed by university students, which increased the cases from Sept (having been conveniently primed by eat out scheme). From Nov onwards the new variant made matters worse. Some seasonal differences are probably going to occur because of colder air temperatures, greater tendency to close doors and windows and reduced vitamin D (which only hits about Nov time because we can be making vit D up until Oct and it has a half-life of about 30 days), but probably not enough to see the increase in cases/deaths we have seen.
Grast_girl Feb 2021 10:10pm, 8 Feb 2021 1,976 posts	Quote Pin Grast_girl Just looking at the false positive rates by looking at number of tests in New Zealand (somewhere we know has very few cases) since 1st Jan (148469) vs cases (158), which even if they were all false positives would give a rate of 0.1%.
Fopp Feb 2021 10:27pm, 8 Feb 2021 63 posts	Quote Pin Fopp There was an interesting video from Dr J Campbell showing results on Vit D from the UK Biobank I think it was. Showed a 38% lower infection rate for habitual takers of supplements. I don't think it was a proper study just analysis of data but certainly merits more attention as he says. FD - I don't see how observing the fact that summer offers potential to acquire more immunity within the population at a much lower risk due to better immune condition as anything to get miffed about. It could potentially save lives, it merits discussion.
simbil Feb 2021 10:55pm, 8 Feb 2021 9,212 posts	Quote Pin simbil For the question from the last page, there are a couple of factors that may explain the low deaths last summer - relatively low base of cases due to lockdown suppression, the lag of time from being positive to being in hospital to passing away, but mainly the virus spreading first in younger people who tend not to die and then spreading to older age groups later.
Fopp Feb 2021 11:08pm, 8 Feb 2021 66 posts	Quote Pin Fopp Seems all a bit too convenient that story simbil, one might suggest confirmation bias at work. All flu and previous coronaviruses are seasonal except this one?
simbil Feb 2021 11:25pm, 8 Feb 2021 9,213 posts	Quote Pin simbil Don’t think H1N1 was seasonal when it appeared, there was a 2 year pandemic. As populations gain resistance, seasonal variation can become more of a factor as could well eventually happen with C19. But it’s not a major factor this year and is a distant third after vaccinations and restrictions at best.