The Sub 3:15 Marathon Thread

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14 Jun
3:00pm, 14 Jun 2024
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larkim
Obviously not real "science" but this might be interesting at the very least to consider.

Two marathon runners with good history behind them training to race each other. One will train at 5min/mile, the other at 10min/mile. No doubles, no cheating, no limits on volume.

Who wins?

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jda
14 Jun
3:06pm, 14 Jun 2024
17,279 posts
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jda
Looks a bit silly to me. What sort of volume will the 5 mm runner manage? I think we've seen demonstrated that high mileage steady pace is enough for a pretty good marathon, if not perhaps optimal. Maybe there's a point at which slow running is too slow to train at all, but the 5mm guy just won't have any mileage.
14 Jun
3:10pm, 14 Jun 2024
24,581 posts
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larkim
Oh, its definitely a bit silly. They are both sub 15 5k runners, but I guess the 5min/mile guy will only get 3-4 miles done per day. That said, 10 min/mile for the other guy is way outside of what they would normally train at, so HR will be v v low and there might be no stimulus or adaption.

Still might be interesting just to see what sort of gap it creates, or whether their existing running traits overcome the stupid training block they put in.
14 Jun
3:30pm, 14 Jun 2024
27,796 posts
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Dvorak
10:00 runner, by a distance. But I'm also pretty sure that someone of a similar standard, but running 8:00s (either 8 or slower, or 8 or faster) would trounce either.
14 Jun
3:40pm, 14 Jun 2024
24,582 posts
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larkim
I'm not 100% certain the 10 min would win; with great running pedigree already in the legs, it's remarkable what good runners can do off relatively little volume.

My offspring ran 2:48 off 18mpw in Oct 22. Admittedly he did manage some proper long runs in there, and his average pace was 7m15 or so for the runs he did do, but it was the mara training he'd done in 2019/20 that got him through (he only ran 72 miles in 2021 and about 440 in total in 2022 before the marathon). I wouldn't put it past him to train daily at 5min/mile pace and accumulate 21-25mpw and still be able to knock out a sub 2:40.

I suppose it might depend how "easy" the 5min/mile runner finds it to run a 5min/mile based o current fitness.
14 Jun
4:53pm, 14 Jun 2024
6,381 posts
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Windsor Wool
Tanda might like the 5 min/miler!
14 Jun
5:05pm, 14 Jun 2024
3,475 posts
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riggys99
It may also depend how far away from the marathon it is. If you have a good base then a few weeks of higher intensity but lower milage may lead to a better time than a few weeks of slower but more miles. (Given same taper etc)
14 Jun
6:24pm, 14 Jun 2024
24,584 posts
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larkim
5 minutes miling and 20 miles per week = 2:47 on Tanda, 10 minutes miling and 100 miles per week = 3:18. (Acknowledging that both numbers are nonsense).
14 Jun
6:43pm, 14 Jun 2024
6,383 posts
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Windsor Wool
gotta love Tanda!

And trust, of course.
14 Jun
7:29pm, 14 Jun 2024
69,394 posts
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Velociraptor
I'll be very interested to see if they both make it to the start of the marathon. I note that they've dealt quite thoroughly with the various tricks each runner might have used to game the system.

About This Thread

Maintained by Windsor Wool
For those who want to go sub 3.15 in a marathon and/or those that have already done it and want to give advice. Share your journey or help someone else's! here.

2024 achievers:
Akie: 3:15 @ Rotterdam
allmatthew: 3:09 @ Manchester
Bowman: 3:01 @ Boras
Mark J: 3:12 @ Christchurch NZ
PJH92: 3:13 @ London

2024 declarations:
Växjö 19/10: Bowman
Amsterdam 20/10: charlesvdw
Cleethorpes 23/11: riggys

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