Sub 3Hr Marathon
312 watchers
Mar 2018
2:11pm, 28 Mar 2018
113 posts
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icenutter
In the marathon, you aren’t limited by the lactic energy system, because you are running below the aerobic threshold. Therefore any slowdown is due to muscle damage (or running out of glycogen). So if you set out at a goal pace, then chances are you will slow down at the end due to the factors above. So therefore your overall pace will be lower than you set out at. If you set out just to run your best time, then even splits is probably a sensible strategy as it will prolong any slowdown. But in calculating that target pace, you should be mindful that you will probably finish in a slower time than estimated. This, of course, doesn’t apply if you pick a target time or pace that is well inside your ability or form. I take Eluid Kipchoge in the Sub 2 race as an example. They set off at 4:34.5 pace, but by 40k was 20 seconds off his goal. Getting that time back, at that stage in the race, is very difficult. But had he set off in 4:33 pace, then that slowdown would have been accounted for. And just so I’m clear, I wouldn’t advocate taking Barry’s strategy as gospel. But that the orthodoxy of even pacing for the marathon doesn’t stand up to scrutiny at the top end of the field. |
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Mar 2018
2:26pm, 28 Mar 2018
114 posts
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icenutter
A different take on it, is imagine running a race at a fixed heart rate. At the beginning you’d run faster as you were fresher, then gradually slow up. The effort is consistent, but the pace varies.
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Mar 2018
2:31pm, 28 Mar 2018
2,646 posts
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jdarun
It's certainly the case that most runners run a positive split but the performances I was most pleased with and regard as closest to my potential at the time are the most evenly-paced two. And of course going out too hard can give a massive failure - I'm sure we've all passed a lot of much better runners in the last 6 miles of a marathon. Whether perfectly flat pacing is perfectly optimal may not be proven or indeed provable but it's certainly close. I wouldn't quibble with +1 or -1 either, we're talking fine margins here and wind direction and temperature play as big a role, as does the possibility of drafting in a group. Nike thought flat pacing was best for their highly-controlled 2h attempt. My current thoughts are if I can do 2:45 I can do it as 1:23/1:22 just as likely as any other strategy, so I will be happy to drop a few secs over the first half. That way, if I'm really only intrinsically capable of 2:47-8 I shouldn't blow up too badly. Current forecast (and prevailing) wind is for a gentle tailwind over the last few miles at least. Incidentally the 3h runner listed up there by icenutter has a 1:22ish half and ran a slightly faster marathon the previous year (looked him up on rbr). There are worse convertors but plenty better too. |
Mar 2018
2:32pm, 28 Mar 2018
25,798 posts
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SPR
I take Eluid Kipchoge in the Sub 2 race as an example... But had he set off in 4:33 pace, then that slowdown would have been accounted for. Slowdown would have happened quicker. |
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Mar 2018
2:41pm, 28 Mar 2018
2,647 posts
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jdarun
Yeah but if he'd done the first 20 miles at 4:20 pace he'd have had plenty in hand  Honestly don't know exactly how flat a pace is optimal in terms of human physiology but it is also worth remembering that from a purely physics point of view a uniform pace minimises the total energy requirement (assuming no wind/slope). |
Mar 2018
8:10pm, 28 Mar 2018
12,763 posts
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Bazoaxe
SPR nailed it. To take Steve Way, that was a gtraining run for Comrades and almost 10 mins off his PB. I suspect you would see a different result in his PB race. Or what about Kimettos WR which I think was a negative split. |
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Mar 2018
9:18pm, 28 Mar 2018
115 posts
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icenutter
Steve way 2014, best time in London. PB is from Glasgow Commonwealth Games in the same year. Split Time min/km Percentage 5K 00:15:55 03:11 -1.5 10K 00:31:58 03:13 -0.5 15K 00:47:53 03:12 -1.0 20K 01:03:53 03:12 -1.0 HALF 01:07:21 03:11 -1.5 02:14:42 25K 01:19:52 03:13 -0.5 30K 01:36:10 03:16 1.0 35K 01:52:36 03:18 2.1 40K 02:09:13 03:20 3.1 Finish time 02:16:27 03:18 2.1 Average Pace 03:14 Eluid Kipchoge 2016 London Course Record Split Time min/km Percentage min/km 5K 00:14:16 02:52 -1.7 10K 00:28:37 02:53 -1.1 15K 00:43:17 02:57 1.1 20K 00:58:10 02:59 2.3 HALF 01:01:24 02:57 1.1 02:02:48 25K 01:12:39 02:54 -0.6 30K 01:27:13 02:55 0.0 35K 01:42:07 02:59 2.3 40K 01:56:49 02:57 1.1 FINISH 02:03:05 02:52 -1.7 Average Pace 02:55 I can't find splits from Paula Radcliffe's world records. |
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Mar 2018
9:23pm, 28 Mar 2018
12,770 posts
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Bazoaxe
In Kipchoge's race the pace dropped between 35k-40k as he was racing Biwott and only picked up towards the end. Kipchoge should have broken the WR that day and run faster
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Mar 2018
9:37pm, 28 Mar 2018
25,804 posts
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SPR
Paula slight negative split: iaaf.org Kimetto slight negative: trackandfieldnews.com |
Mar 2018
8:27am, 29 Mar 2018
5,083 posts
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postieboy
Quick de-lurk to put in my tuppence about pacing. There's nothing psychologically more uplifting in a marathon still feeling strong in the second half of one, especially once you reach about 16 miles. That carries you through until about mile 24 when only having to hang on is a lot easier knowing there's under 15 minutes of running to endure. Constantly passing people is also great for focussing. See the person in front tiring, pass him or her, then repeat over and over (sorry Baz!) I'm prouder of my 2:58 in 2016 than my 2:55 last year because I nailed the pacing in that first one (slight negative split for the newer folks here).
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