4 Feb
3:49pm, 4 Feb 2025
33,652 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I wonder "how" they have factored in "invade Panama" - cos if that goes tits up that's one of the world's biggest trade routes bunged up. In fact if I was prez of Panama I'd have a contingency plan to blow up the locks.
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4 Feb
4:00pm, 4 Feb 2025
25,755 posts
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Chrisity
Canadian liquor store, guess where the american booze was. |
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4 Feb
4:17pm, 4 Feb 2025
33,653 posts
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Johnny Blaze
He's shown his hand now. I expect more of that kind of thing. In fact, I am offering up a prayer to St Jeremy of Diddly Squat for Tesla sales to fall through the floor. |
4 Feb
4:29pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,553 posts
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larkim
jda wrote: You're just making up post-hoc word salad based on nothing other than your unsupported assertion that the market has predicted the outcome, therefore the outcome is what they predicted. If I say I'm going to pick an integer between 1 and 1,000,000, then when I tell you what number I picked, are you going to say "that's not surprising"? Because you could guess a thousand times and still almost certainly get it wrong. (The point, just in case I haven't belaboured it enough, is that saying "everyone knew Trump was going to do crazy shit" is not in any way the same thing as saying "everyone knew exactly what crazy shit Trump was going to do". And if his crazy shit is market-influencing, which it most certainly was, then it's nonsense to claim the market could account for the details of what he did without knowing what it was that he was going to do.) See also: bsky.app But Trump literally said he was intending on imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China. He literally said he was putting Musk in charge of DOGE. He trailed more or less everything he has already implemented; there have been no great surprises. Crazy stuff that he said he would do, he has done. And smarter minds than mine (certainly) looked ahead when he said he would do those things and started making decisions about where their money looked best placed. I can't believe this is even arguable. This is what markets do *all the time* and they are not so binary as to only be considering the world where tariffs are either in place, or not in place. Here's an article from 27th November last year:- skadden.com On November 25, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump announced that, on his first day in office, he would impose new tariffs on all imports from Canada, Mexico and China. Do you think its seriously credible that the financial markets in the USA and Canada didn't hear that news and consider the impact on their future profitability? And also weigh up what the Senator said in that final paragraph and make a judgement about what "price" to adjust stocks by. If you announce that in 1 months time you may do something which will be costly for me, I "watch that space" and perhaps act in the meanwhile to mitigate my losses. I also keep a close eye on you throughout that period and have time to weigh up what the impact may or may not be, so that when you do make your decision I'm prepared and I've probably done what I can in my best interests. |
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4 Feb
4:34pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,554 posts
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larkim
And to be clear, what I am *NOT* saying is that everything he has done has been predictable, nor that the markets therefore accounted for absolutely everything precisely. What they do is make adjustments ahead of the announcements, and then fine tune those views when they get clarity. So they can and do still get it wrong, but they have a massive vested interest in trying to be in the right region. If something surprises them completely, that's when we get enormous swings. And what we did not see, beyond something of an opening blip, was enormous swings.
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4 Feb
4:37pm, 4 Feb 2025
18,417 posts
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jda
"But Trump literally said he was intending on imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China." Newsflash: he hasn't. |
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4 Feb
4:43pm, 4 Feb 2025
18,418 posts
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jda
"And what we did not see, beyond something of an opening blip, was enormous swings." Did you not look at the link I put to the bsky post? |
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4 Feb
4:49pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,556 posts
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larkim
And yet, that morning blip was gone by the end of the day, before any pause on Mexico or Canada. Mid-day blips are really of little consequence. And as for whether he has or hasn't imposed them - he has, and he has paused them; using them as a negotiating tool as observers predicted he might well do. And China's tariffs are literally in place unmodified. |
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4 Feb
4:51pm, 4 Feb 2025
33,654 posts
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Johnny Blaze
jda wrote: "But Trump literally said he was intending on imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China." Newsflash: he hasn't. I was going to say that! "Government by shakedown" has got off to a rocky start, but I expect more of the same. Say what you like about Al Capone, but his protection rackets delivered results! |
4 Feb
5:12pm, 4 Feb 2025
22,632 posts
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Chrisull
Larks be like this NY Pitchbot headline (and it's a real one): bsky.app |
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