1:37pm
1:37pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,548 posts
|
larkim
jda wrote: "Very little he does in these first few weeks will not already be factored into the market in some way." That's assuming that what he does was accurately predicted by the market. Which seems a bit far-fetched. Not just the general sense of chaos but the specific market-impacting decisions. True; but before his taking office he had already floated 25% tariffs, day 1 executive orders dealing with some of the stuff he has put in place, appointments to senior roles etc. There's not been a great deal he's done since inauguration which hasn't been telegraphed loud and clear since during the election. |
2:22pm
2:22pm, 4 Feb 2025
33,650 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
I doubt the markets factored in "bully Canada into becoming 51st state".
|
|
2:24pm
2:24pm, 4 Feb 2025
33,651 posts
|
Johnny Blaze
The truth is that the level of corruption, incompetence and lawbreaking is not yet fully revealed and neither are the reactions to same. We are yet to see exactly how he is going to siphon off billions, but it will happen.
|
|
2:33pm
2:33pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,550 posts
|
larkim
Johnny Blaze wrote: I doubt the markets factored in "bully Canada into becoming 51st state". Given he was saying it in December, I reckon some of them at least took note. As with all things predicted by markets, sometimes they try to guess impacts and the reality isn't quite the same. But they have had time to at least think about some of his prospective term of office and make some judgements about the likely economic impact on the firms that the market represents. |
2:47pm
2:47pm, 4 Feb 2025
22,630 posts
|
Chrisull
I'd say the markets didn't believe he'd actually apply tariffs, hence they were up at the beginning. The actual big dip was caused by Deepseek, but when tariffs became apparent the markets started diving again. I'd imagine they will equalise out. Trump is an agent of chaos, even HE doesn't know what he will do next, so there's no way the markets could factor that in. I'm beginning to think tariffs won't really happen (except for China - at a way lower 10%), he'll just come waving them at the EU next.
|
|
2:49pm
2:49pm, 4 Feb 2025
22,631 posts
|
Chrisull
There's not been a great deal he's done since inauguration which hasn't been telegraphed loud and clear since during the election. Appointing Elon Musk as a fourth arm of the government effectively and handing the entire federal budgets to a bunch of 19-25 year old engineers, interns and white supremacists? I didn't have that on my bingo card. |
|
3:05pm
3:05pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,551 posts
|
larkim
Musk's DOGE etc was well telegraphed. The precision of what Trump has done wouldn't have been strong, but there's not been really anything he's done so far that is that surprising. It will be further down the line when events dictate his response that we'll see how the various economic indicators impact / reflect Trump. |
3:12pm
3:12pm, 4 Feb 2025
18,414 posts
|
jda
"before his taking office he had already floated 25% tariffs" So did the market account for these 25% tariffs that haven't actually happened, or what? |
|
3:17pm
3:17pm, 4 Feb 2025
26,552 posts
|
larkim
You know it's not as precise as that. If an incoming government announces a prospective policy the pricing of some of the stocks / shares starts to account for that potential so that when a final decision is taken whether to implement the policy there is less shock. And up to that point the market finesses its expectation of what will happen in reality. Fundamentally when he announced them, there was no massive market reaction. And now he's paused them there has been no massive reaction either. That says that either a) the range of possibilities was factored into the market (both upsides and downsides for US stocks) or b) the impact of the tariffs, whether imposed or not, is likely to be insignificant. |
|
3:32pm
3:32pm, 4 Feb 2025
18,415 posts
|
jda
You're just making up post-hoc word salad based on nothing other than your unsupported assertion that the market has predicted the outcome, therefore the outcome is what they predicted. larkim wrote: The precision of what Trump has done wouldn't have been strong, but there's not been really anything he's done so far that is that surprising. If I say I'm going to pick an integer between 1 and 1,000,000, then when I tell you what number I picked, are you going to say "that's not surprising"? Because you could guess a thousand times and still almost certainly get it wrong. (The point, just in case I haven't belaboured it enough, is that saying "everyone knew Trump was going to do crazy shit" is not in any way the same thing as saying "everyone knew exactly what crazy shit Trump was going to do". And if his crazy shit is market-influencing, which it most certainly was, then it's nonsense to claim the market could account for the details of what he did without knowing what it was that he was going to do.) See also: bsky.app |
Useful Links
FE accepts no responsibility for external links. Or anything, really.Related Threads
-
Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
-
EU Referendum - In or Out? Vote here
Aug 2018
-
March to Parliament Against Brexit - Sat 2nd July
Jun 2016
-
EU Referendum
Feb 2016
-
Ads on Fetch - anyone else getting Leave and Remain?!
Feb 2017
-
The Environment Thread :-)
Jan 2025
-
Economics
Jan 2025
-
Dear Scottish Fetchies
Jan 2023
-
Any economists out there - question
Oct 2022
-
Power and exploitation - please check my sanity
Oct 2018