Nov 2024
4:44pm, 5 Nov 2024
22,332 posts
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Chrisull
PA, WI and MI are enough. But by 2. You'd want at least one of the others to make it a bit more comfortable. Hopefully North Carolina or Georgia as both will be relatively early to declare.
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Nov 2024
4:46pm, 5 Nov 2024
5,697 posts
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J2R
I'm a lot more anxious about the whole thing now, because it's not just the future of the world that's at stake, £25 of mine is on the line, too.
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Nov 2024
4:46pm, 5 Nov 2024
33,397 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Chrisull wrote: On other hand Florida already looking safe republican. But PA is looking very solid for Dems already. On what basis, please? Is the assumption that registered Repubicans erm, vote Republican? |
Nov 2024
4:51pm, 5 Nov 2024
6,876 posts
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paulcook
When do we mention faithless electors?!
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Nov 2024
4:56pm, 5 Nov 2024
22,333 posts
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Chrisull
JB - Yes: Now 873k election day votes from Florida (40 mins ago). 222k Democrats 414.5k Republicans Also in Nevada, for Dems to win, they'd hope to take the lead in Clark County at some point , as historically their vote grows over the day, as Reps declines. They've already gone into the lead there. |
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Nov 2024
4:58pm, 5 Nov 2024
22,334 posts
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Chrisull
Michigan and Atlanta, Georgia are both going to surpass their 2020 turnout numbers. In Philadelphia Puerto Rican turnout is set to pass 2020 figures by 11.30am.
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Nov 2024
5:00pm, 5 Nov 2024
23,362 posts
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rf_fozzy
Chrisull wrote: JB - Yes: Now 873k election day votes from Florida (40 mins ago). 222k Democrats 414.5k Republicans Also in Nevada, for Dems to win, they'd hope to take the lead in Clark County at some point , as historically their vote grows over the day, as Reps declines. They've already gone into the lead there. The experts in the field say don't read anything into these metrics. Voter registration doesn't necessarily tell you much. |
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Nov 2024
5:01pm, 5 Nov 2024
23,363 posts
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rf_fozzy
In fact the FT political editor has been already making jokes about these kind of takes.
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Nov 2024
5:57pm, 5 Nov 2024
22,335 posts
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Chrisull
Nope, indeed Florida is a big state. But still you'd say it's not a great omen there. Ralston in Nevada was quite keen that the Dems run ahead in Clark County as that's the normal pattern when they win, and that's happening. In previous elections the Dems have outstripped the Reps in Florida early on. The only way in Florida it would be wrong would be if massive amounts of switchers (eg Puerto ricans in Osceola - which there are some signs of), or indies breaking heavily - well indies lag both in Florida. There are trends to follow as the day continues, as turnouts surge or diminish. |
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Nov 2024
5:58pm, 5 Nov 2024
22,336 posts
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Chrisull
My sister is still bullish about North Carolina too (purely anecdotal of course)
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