Nov 2024
10:51am, 5 Nov 2024
22,326 posts
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Chrisull
AtlasIntel apparently halved black voters in one crosstab for one state without explanation... sounds legit. Bit like was it TIPP who just took Detroit (or was it Atlanta) out of their predictions in an earlier poll. Also amazing, Iowa wasn't polled once until Selzer, and then 4 times by right leaning pollsters after that... I'm feeling more comfortable, Michael Moore was the canary in the coalmine in 2016, but this time he thinks Harris. Even Twitter's MAGA echo chamber are getting spooked. |
Nov 2024
10:52am, 5 Nov 2024
25,990 posts
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larkim
Ah yes, he was born in Africa.
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Nov 2024
10:55am, 5 Nov 2024
33,390 posts
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Johnny Blaze
I have a theory that Texas is going to go for Harris. That's 38 EC votes, more than Pennsylvania and Georgia combined. Why? Because I think Texas is seen as being the vanguard of anti-abortion measures in the States, it only went to Trump by 5 and it has a big Hispanic vote. Iowa also has fairly draconian abortion limits. I'm extrapolating a lot. |
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Nov 2024
10:56am, 5 Nov 2024
25,991 posts
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larkim
On my IHT post earlier, Business Relief is also being reduced. According to the govts figures, "a majority" of new estates won't pay additional IHT through that change, whereas "over 3/4" won't in the farming community. And 500 farmers will be affected, but 1000 business owners. So I'm quite surprised that the business owners, being in the majority, aren't the ones kicking up a fuss. I think the change is slightly less punative as they were already exposed to 20% IHT on some aspects of the business, but there will be an impact there. There is a conceptual challenge with IHT about trying to preserve assets after death rather than liquidate them to satisfy the IHT charge. If one assumes the assets are worth preserving / being retained in the family. Which may or may not be the right thing. |
Nov 2024
11:01am, 5 Nov 2024
5,690 posts
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J2R
There is a potential problem for any putative Trump successor, as Trump's narcissism will mean that he will turn on anyone who is taking any of the limelight away from him.
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Nov 2024
11:02am, 5 Nov 2024
29,955 posts
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richmac
humanity causing climate change & love O&G how do they square their logical hostility towards Musk? Or has he played them to sell cars ?
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Nov 2024
11:02am, 5 Nov 2024
5,691 posts
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J2R
I'm sticking to my 296, by the way.
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Nov 2024
11:05am, 5 Nov 2024
29,957 posts
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richmac
lol managed to cut most of my post was meant to start by saying many magas dont believe in |
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Nov 2024
11:13am, 5 Nov 2024
33,391 posts
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Johnny Blaze
J2R wrote: There is a potential problem for any putative Trump successor, as Trump's narcissism will mean that he will turn on anyone who is taking any of the limelight away from him. Yep. He will also make his support conditional upon a guaranteed pardon if they win in 2028. There's no bottom to this guy's lack of conscience. |
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Nov 2024
11:14am, 5 Nov 2024
25,992 posts
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larkim
Of course, if he loses he still has another term available to him to tell himself he's the best candidate for. Does he even need to think of a successor in that circumstance?
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