5 Nov
10:16am, 5 Nov 2024
22,324 posts
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Chrisull
Time to ask, are people happy with their predictions? I'll start and say, in retrospect I think I'd go 292 Harris now (I think she picks up one of Georgia or N Carolina, which both carry 16 delegates). But it's still awkwardly close, Nevada remains on a knife edge as fozzy points out. Also if Harris loses PA (now looking the most dodgy of the three rust belt ones due to very poor turnout in Philadelphia, although they go in with a 410,000 vote advantage today), but wins either Georgia or North Carolina, an electoral dead heat becomes possible..... The thing that makes or breaks it today is one thing. Whether Democrats get out and vote or stay at home. They vote in enough numbers, they win, it really is that simple. The hope is the Dems Get Out of the Vote campaign is massively superior to Musk's imprisoned contractors in the back of white transit vans with no seats. Nearly everything points to a Harris advantage, but as season 3 of Slow Burn podcast showed on the rise of David Duke (Ku Klux Klan man)and his tilt at the governorship, there really is no upper limit to racist self interested voting, and we'd be naive to assume there is. In the end Duke blew up his governor's campaign, as we hope Trump has done here. But it will come down to their incompetence (as it did with Duke), not to common sense winning out, if that is so. |
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5 Nov
10:17am, 5 Nov 2024
22,325 posts
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Chrisull
Here's the link to the Musk story for those that didn't know it: wired.com
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5 Nov
10:18am, 5 Nov 2024
18,055 posts
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jda
Trump’s rallies have been wastelands of tumbleweed. I can’t see why people are still taking him seriously.
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5 Nov
10:20am, 5 Nov 2024
33,384 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Can I change to 360 D D please? Might as well go all in! |
5 Nov
10:23am, 5 Nov 2024
6,872 posts
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paulcook
Several media entourage stated similar. Even a cameraman trolled him by panning to empty sections when he said one rally was a sellout. Either they're all staying at home and will still vote for him or even his core support is fed up. Yet the predictions don't seem to have changed much for days now. |
5 Nov
10:23am, 5 Nov 2024
6,107 posts
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Cheeky’s Dad
Interesting take on TRIP US that, while the race is still too close to call, momentum is with Harris and that the recent extreme rhetoric from Trump advocates is finally turning some voters against him. The theory being that such comments from The Donald himself are baked in and he could basically say anything, when those around him try to out trump Trump people actually get scared. Maybe wishful thinking and The Mooch & Katy Kay are clearly pro Harris but an interesting take. We shall see
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5 Nov
10:24am, 5 Nov 2024
33,385 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Yes I saw the indentured labour story. What a charmer he is. One of the additional pleasures of a Harris victory will be knowing Musk spent several hundred million dollars backing the wrong horse. I know he can afford it but he might have to rein in his little chats with Vlad lest he gets a bunch of indictments slapped on him. |
5 Nov
10:29am, 5 Nov 2024
46,602 posts
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SPR
I mean Musk spent loads on Twitter and is doing a rigged giveaway so he'll hardly care. The good thing about Trump not winning is Musk won't be near power. I really hope Harris wins. In the same way as Labour here, she needs to make the next 4 years good so Trump lite is less a danger (I presume Trump won't be standing but you never know). |
5 Nov
10:29am, 5 Nov 2024
15,525 posts
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sallykate
Nate Silver's probabilistic model finally has Harris in front of Trump - it's been close for a while but usually Trump coming out on top by one or two; now it's Harris. projects.fivethirtyeight.com Another take: thecycle.substack.com |
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5 Nov
10:30am, 5 Nov 2024
15,526 posts
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sallykate
Just realised that second link doesn't display all the content unless you're a subscriber but Michael Moore includes it all here: michaelmoore.com
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