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Jan 2020
10:05am, 13 Jan 2020
1,592 posts
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Surelynot
Bazo - I know we are on opposite sides of the Scottish independence debate. As a supporter of the Union, how do you react to Alister Jack's interview yesterday where he stated that. even if the SNP gets a majority in favour of an independence referendum in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, this will not be allowed by Westminster?
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Jan 2020
12:16pm, 13 Jan 2020
15,741 posts
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Bazoaxe
Good question SN and I find myself in two minds on this. A majority of seats at Holyrood (or Westminster) doesn't necessarily also mean a majority support for independence and so its not a straightforward question.
I would say if a majority of people voted for parties with Independence in their manifesto then that is enough for a 2nd referendum. No doubt about that. However if those parties have majority of seats but less than 50% of the vote it is less clear cut.
I don't think we can keep asking the question over and over again and I actually think Sturgeon knows this. She needs the next vote to produce her desired answer. If it doesn't then the dream is over for a long time. The problem she has is that the rank and file don't see that and just want their vote. This is probably a key point in the whole debate.
As at today I think we are still around 55/45 and actually I would suggest if we had a 2nd campaign and the union strategy was right, it would actually be a good approach to hold a vote and put this to bed once and for all.
I don't have a lot of time for Jack based on what I have seen and read.
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Jan 2020
12:24pm, 13 Jan 2020
1,601 posts
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um
Given the Brexit experience, if Scotland did ever vote independence, how long would it take to agree & implement?
Would the Barnett formula apply to allocating the national debt, and would debt allocation be based on population/residence, nationality, or land area?
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Jan 2020
12:28pm, 13 Jan 2020
2,518 posts
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J2R
As an Englishman watching from hundreds of miles away, I don't really have a good understanding of the whole Scottish independence question. But would I be right in thinking that there have been two separate and opposing influences at work since the last referendum, because of Brexit? Firstly, the fact that Brexit is fundamentally an English Nationalist thing, dragging Scotland out of the EU against the will of a very clear majority of its people, would, I imagine, have made a lot of Scots more amenable to the idea of independence than before. On the other hand, Brexit has clearly demonstrated what a miserable, messy, awkward experience leaving a union of long standing is likely to be, which I suspect has turned quite a few people against Independence. So it's which 'faction', if you like, has gained or lost more which is the key here. Is this in any way right?
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Jan 2020
12:30pm, 13 Jan 2020
15,744 posts
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Bazoaxe
um, these are some of the difficukt questions which I find many on the other side of the debate just want to tag as project fear and brush under the carpet.
I really wish the nationalists in general and those in government could be more like HappyG and SurelyNot and others on here who could actually properly consider, debate and answer these questions.
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Jan 2020
12:45pm, 13 Jan 2020
8,347 posts
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simbil
If one thing is learnt from the Brexit debacle, it is hopefully that leaving is just an action and it is the destination that everyone needs to understand and agree on.
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Jan 2020
12:46pm, 13 Jan 2020
33,853 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
I don't have any easy answers, but agree that the questions that um and J2R stated above and generally the approach that Bazo proposed are all correct.
Doesn't really get us anywhere other than to say it's all rather a mess and leave Scotland, like the wider UK, deeply divided. When you've got a bit over 50% disagreeing fairly diametrically with a bit under 50% on any major political topic, it's going to be unpleasant.
For what it's worth, I would summarise my support for Scottish independence as being:
a. on social and moral grounds, not economic. That is, I recognise that it has a big cost but that I think Scotland by itself would have a more socially inclusive outlook and having the ability to have a government that reflects that is worth some (significant) cost.
b. the case for independence is definitely not made at this time and that there is *not* a majority in favour at the moment, for independence or even for another referendum about it.
c. that it is a topic still worthy of debate because of its importance, because of the ever widening gap with English politics and because of the closeness (whether it's 45 - 55 or nearly 50 - 50) of the support for both sides.
But it's not an easy topic, for sure.  G
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Jan 2020
12:52pm, 13 Jan 2020
1,593 posts
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Surelynot
Bazo - I agree with your assessment. The next vote will have to be won for the independence movement. I do think that there's a hardcore of Unionists who will applaud Jack's position on this 'not in Sturgeon's lifetime' position but there will be many who will see this as anti-democratic. A continuation of this sort of thing will make people reconsider their position. I do know some family members who voted no are already very uncomfortable with what's happening in the UK at the moment.
um - the timetable for independence would have to be agreed and would depend on the attitude of the rUK. The allocation of the national debt is up for discussion as is apportioning a share of any assets.
J2R - Brexit has been messy because there was no plan for it. I would expect any referendum in Scotland to be based on a set of criteria that sets the direction and timetable. I don't underestimate how difficult it may be to achieve - especially if the rUK government are hostile.
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Jan 2020
1:23pm, 13 Jan 2020
6,105 posts
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jda
Way I see it, Scotland is becoming independent, but it's a slow gradual process rather than an abrupt rupture.
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Jan 2020
1:43pm, 13 Jan 2020
1,594 posts
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Surelynot
jda - if you look at the demographics in terms of support for the Union, it's strongest in the >55 category. If you look at the <30s, independence has the strongest support.
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