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Dec 2019
12:49pm, 9 Dec 2019
594 posts
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Scrooge
aberdeen south leaflet watch - now 3 tory, 2 SNP, 1 labour. lib dem clearly a paper candidate. tories clearly chucking the kitch£n sink at this. their registered office is just round the corner, so i popped the latest one back through their letterbox with an 'assertive' message not to bother with any more.
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Dec 2019
12:51pm, 9 Dec 2019
43,261 posts
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Diogenes
I don't think there is a left-wing bias here.
There is an militant humanitarian/social justice element who seem to form the majority of contributors, and hurrah for that, I say.
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Dec 2019
12:52pm, 9 Dec 2019
33,590 posts
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Merry Christmas & Happy New G(rrr)
Lol at militant humanitarians Dio!  G
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Dec 2019
12:58pm, 9 Dec 2019
10,193 posts
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mrs shanksi
Good post HappyG. I felt very hurt by the negativity after the result the last time, some people on the yes side were very nasty and I deleted some folk off fb. It was all very divisive. If we had another ref I would respect the result, I don't fear it, I feel I could cope.
I live in the same constituency as my friend TQ and we have had chats about this IRL, about who I will vote for. We have a tory MP and I guess only SNP can beat him. But it's not as simple as stopping a tory for me. I don't want Scotland to gain independence because I don't want a border with England and I feel that any vote for the snp would be endorsing them and their goal of wanting another ref soon. I know I could vote for snp then no in a ref vote, but I don't want to endorse them since I would be very unhappy with a hard border. I'm still hoping Brexit won't happen.
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Dec 2019
1:06pm, 9 Dec 2019
33,592 posts
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Merry Christmas & Happy New G(rrr)
I sympathise and I agree entirely that these referenda for big changes are very divisive. For what it's worth, I think Scottish independence is unlikely to happen, because of the cost, and while Brexit annoys lots of Scottish people, it's not the "game changer" that SNP try to portray it. I think the real question is like a teenager leaving home - you might say you "hate your parents" but actually, are you brave enough and prepared to work hard enough to earn a crust on your own? And unfortunately (for me!) I don't think Scotland as a whole does have that belief or bravery (or stupidity, as some might call it!)
So if it ain't going to happen, why have another referendum about it? I'd agree with that certainly. Only if there were some massive mood swing (and I don't know how you'd measure that, as we know polls aren't a good measure!) then why go through pain of a referendum?
If you end up with a Tory MP in your constituency and you didn't vote for someone likely to beat them, wouldn't you feel you'd contributed to the more immediate problem of Brexit though? Isn't "Almost Certain Brexit in Jan 2020" a bigger problem than "Possibly Future Referendum for Scottish Independence"?
Glad we can discuss (pro UK and pro independent Scotland) civilly. I for one wouldn't want to risk friendships over these issues. G
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Dec 2019
1:16pm, 9 Dec 2019
15,646 posts
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Bazoaxe
HG, you are starting to sound like you might vote to remain in the Union
I had an interesting chat with my MiL the other day. A clear sign that she is on the mend is that she is worrying about Brexit. Its funny as I always had her down as a likely Tory voter. Completely unprompted my son said to me at the weekend, is Grandma a Tory voter.
As it happens she appears to be and always has been a Lib Dem. She hates Johnson and Brexit ,but her main concern is why did the Lib Dems put a young female in charge, surely we need an older man in a grey suit to appeal to the electorate were roughly her words !
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Dec 2019
1:22pm, 9 Dec 2019
9,276 posts
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rf_fozzy
That guardian article about tactical voting that got posted was odd.
It says York Outer would benefit from tactical voting, yet the Cons have an 8,000 majority
From 2017, Lab got 21,000 with 6,000 going to LD and GRN on a 76% turnout.
With all the will in the world, turnout is never going to be much higher, so even with 100% tactical voting Lab are unlikely to win that seat.
However, Keighley with a 249 majority in favour of LAB in a 2 way ultra marginal *would* benefit from tactical voting.
Similarly, Pudsey 331 majority in favour of CON, in a 2 way ultra marginal.
Penistone and Stocksbridge: 1300 majority in favour of lab (Angela Smith who went to Change UK) with ~2k LD and ~2k UKIP/BP vote up for grabs also marginal.
None of these get a mention....
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Dec 2019
1:35pm, 9 Dec 2019
18,991 posts
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DeeGee
Answered my own question, it was 18.31 last year, so they started going online about Midday Chicago Time.
I'll try again tomorrow and see what happens...
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Dec 2019
1:36pm, 9 Dec 2019
18,992 posts
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DeeGee
Ignore this. It's related to another thread!
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Dec 2019
1:39pm, 9 Dec 2019
10,264 posts
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Markymarkmark
Fozzy, I'm struggling with that too, because I live in York Outer! It's a 3 way race.
Historically, you could pin a blue rosette on a pig and it'd still get elected here. (The incumbent Conservative MP reminds me of Tim nice-but-dim in many ways - mainly a sense he doesn't live in the same world as his non-landowning/non-gentlefolk farming constituents at all. And he *always* votes along party lines.)
But - there was apparently a massive swing to the LibDems in the European Elections, and also the local council elections.
I'm torn - both the Labour and LibDem leafleting (and boy, there's a lot of it right now, mostly in favour of LibDem, with the 2 major parties being equal on a ratio of roughly 4:1:1 overall) suggest that only they can win locally. If I go with past GE results, it'd have to be Labour. If I go with more recent Euro & local results, it's LibDem.
The Guardian isn't making it any clearer! LibDems are clearly trying very hard.
I can see what's probably going to happen unless one of the two contenders steps down (that's not going happen) is I'll end up yet again with an MP who doesn't represent me, or even a majority of his constituents. Rather like the Conservative government nationally. Dratted FPTP system.
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