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Oct 2019
11:03am, 28 Oct 2019
3,007 posts
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Bob!
..but The Johnson WA is just that, a withdrawal agreement.
A Lab/Coalition Govt can quite easily negotiate the political agreement to include Customs Union, aligned workers rights....
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Oct 2019
11:08am, 28 Oct 2019
5,721 posts
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jda
Perhaps in theory they could try to, but it's not going to be so easy starting from a WA that explicitly and deliberately omits these things. And if the public approved that in a ref, then they wouldn't have much mandate for it either.
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Oct 2019
11:22am, 28 Oct 2019
9,286 posts
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larkim
Agree that the political agreement stuff is hugely important - and broadly overlooked at the moment, so there is plenty of scope for a more pro-EU govt to implement Brexit with less Bojo-impact, but the current WA frames the position and applies some constraints to the political agreement. Though Labour etc would be pushing at an open door to get closer ties agreed.
It would still be an odd position though, having a govt putting forward an agreement that it didn't in fact support in any way.
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Oct 2019
11:33am, 28 Oct 2019
32,932 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
But strangely poetic. It would require a Lab/coalition gov't to *compromise*. That is not a dirty word. Poo is.
Amend for a 2nd Ref, have a GE, get an extension, then whichever gov gets in, do the Ref, Remain vs. Johnson Deal. If the people elect Con majority, they are in driving seat for Johnson deal in the Ref. If they people elect a non-Con majority, then that party or coalition have to campaign for Remain.
I quite like that. Unfortunately I think the UK population will vote for Con, possibly with a majority. And I think they'd still vote for Brexit Johnson style, against Remain, unless there was an incredibly effective and co-ordinated Remain campaign. Which there wouldn't be, with the current bunch of apologists and factionalists.
So, Johnson (and Stander) win!
Scottish Independence or moving to Germany or New Zealand it is then.  G
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Oct 2019
11:40am, 28 Oct 2019
9,287 posts
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larkim
I'm hanging my hopes on Chrisull's psephology. Scotland deserts the Tories, the DUP continue to oppose the Boris deal, the South West rejects Bojo Toryism, the Labour leave areas don't flip to Tory or Brexit Party and Labour pick up some seats in Remain-Tory areas.
There are going to be lots and lots of consciences struggling with their vote this time around I think. People like my better half who are Tory opponents, but can't see eye to eye with Corbyn, yet live in an area where it would take a swing of enormous size to push the Lib Dems to a position where they'd challenge for the seat. Do you just accept a tactical vote for the lesser of two evils, potentially do a "vote swap" with a Corbyn minded individual in a LibDem / Tory marginal? Do you risk some of the tales in the media that everyone's vote is truly up for grabs, and that past performance shouldn't be used as a indicator of who the local battle will be between? Do you stick with the "local candidate" mentality, and if you like a candidate who happens to represent a party that you might not otherwise be tempted to vote for, vote for them anyway?
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Oct 2019
11:43am, 28 Oct 2019
15,394 posts
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Chrisull
What happens if a majority vote for Tory govt, but FPTP puts in a hung parliament in which a coalition of Labour/SNP/Lib Dems can control and pass legislation?
(A bit like America where the majority voted Hilary, but Trump ends up president that's to the electoral college. Here it is more 'ticklish' as the hung Parliament and an opposition govt arising it from it may - according to the media - be seen to lack legitimacy)
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Oct 2019
11:49am, 28 Oct 2019
5,722 posts
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jda
If a majority voted tory there's no way it would be hung. 40% is landslide territory.
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Oct 2019
11:54am, 28 Oct 2019
32,934 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Chris doesn't mean majority. He means largest minority. I.e. most popular party - 35% vote share. But don't get 50% of seats with it. Very possible. Very problematic.
Except it isn't. It's compromise that's needed to form coalitions. Which is not a dirty either. Poo is.
So just get over yourselves media and old style 2 party 19th century thinkers. Working together is a *good* thing. Form a coalition, find solutions that aren't anyone's first choice, but are acceptable to most. Sheesh. G
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Oct 2019
11:58am, 28 Oct 2019
5,723 posts
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jda
Yes obviously a coalition of some sort. Depends if Labour plus libdems could command a majority (which they could not in 2010). This time SNP could also come on board if they got their own ref, just for the purposes of resolving brexit. Of course this is highly speculative and unlikely to pan out just so.
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Oct 2019
12:31pm, 28 Oct 2019
15,528 posts
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Bazoaxe
The reality I think is that we will be headed for another hung parliament with no clear majority for anything and we will be stuck in this groundhog day where the government don't have the numbers to get anything through.
If we did end up with a new government with a different mandate then the WA would be open again regardless of what the EU said. They said we couldn't change May's and we did.
HG - I do worry about the knock on impact of Scottish Independence and don't see that as a possible saviour. I think that will bring its own difficulties for Scotland which when added to the Brexit impact will have quite a big impact. I also shudder at the thought of the current SNP lot being in charge of our destiny. Even more so that the English Tories if I am honest.
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