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Oct 2019
10:21am, 28 Oct 2019
32,924 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
I actually think that's really canny by EU. Labour getting a "better" Brexit deal was always just a load of tosh. Another 2 years negotiation. Requiring majority in parliament.
Let's just get a ref on Remain vs Johnson's WA.
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Oct 2019
10:27am, 28 Oct 2019
5,715 posts
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jda
I don't see why Bonson's WA should have any more priority on the ballot paper than May's. They are both shit, and Bonson's is worse.
Anyway, roll on GE.
Stander, how is that October 31st No Deal coming along now?
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Oct 2019
10:46am, 28 Oct 2019
9,282 posts
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larkim
So in summary, where we are now....
No deal 31st Oct off the table - but no deal 31st Jan still a risk
GE might be agreed for 12th Dec, but Bojo might want to try to get deal through before then
Once new govt in place, either:-
- Bojo wins, his deal goes through by end of Jan
- Hung parliament, EU forced to agree longer extension to allow govt to be formed?
- Pro-ref govt emerges, desparate attempt to get new extension to allow for time for referendum, but EU says no new deal will be offered
Most likely - Bojo wins, we leave 31st Jan, I'd say.
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Oct 2019
10:51am, 28 Oct 2019
16,184 posts
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Stander
But if no GE agreed, Bojo WA not taken back to parliament for agreement.
No deal crash out on 31st Jan?
As we approach 31st, more games, more possible delays.
Rinse and repeat until 5 year parliament term finishes.
Absolutely nobody wins in this scenario.
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Oct 2019
10:54am, 28 Oct 2019
32,928 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
EU won't allow no deal crash out unless UK are fully engaged, imho. If we are GE, no gov't or referenduming, they'll extend.
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Oct 2019
10:55am, 28 Oct 2019
32,929 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Agree with Stander, it's all horribly wasteful and toxic.
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Oct 2019
10:56am, 28 Oct 2019
5,718 posts
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jda
GE on 9th Dec is current front-runner. No appetite for trying to force through the WA first, with or without amendments.
No-one wins with any brexit scenario Stander, it's good to see you are part-way there even if still a way to go. It's a matter of looking for least-worst scenarios, and the current least-worst is a GE that results in a (broadly speaking) lab/coalition govt aiming towards a ref on some as yet unspecified withdrawal agreement. Another year of this shit and and there could be some light at the end of the tunnel.
Other outcomes are available of course, mostly worse...
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Oct 2019
10:57am, 28 Oct 2019
15,393 posts
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Chrisull
Stander - you're absolutely right. The canny extension by the EU would have been to put it to the end of the transition agreement date (because apparently, there's little to do in the withdrawal agreement transition phase anyway), and effectively in terms of what we have to do are the same anyway (stay in EU/transition on EU terms).
Labour's main objection would be removed (no deal for the time being, as far as I can see it can't ever be fully removed), Johnson wouldn't be able to use the threat of no deal to try and force the deal through and would be forced to negotiate with the opposition or attempt an election with adequate time to conduct one. If a deal was agreed earlier, then that would have been fine.
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Oct 2019
10:59am, 28 Oct 2019
9,284 posts
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larkim
Politically the EU couldn't make the extension take account of a GE I suppose - they are supposed to deal with the govt, and only the govt. I do think if asked they would grant an extension to allow for a referendum if a pro-ref govt took power - they'd be nuts not to. But that will get complicated if that pro-ref govt takes over and is forced (by the EU not wanting to reopen the WA) to put Boris's deal to the people. A pro-ref govt might find itself struggling to extricate itself from the Boris deal as either an option on the ballot, or the outcome of the ballot. It wouldn't make sense for a coalition of (say) Labour, Libdem, SNP to take Boris' deal to the people, and then have to implement Boris' deal if that won. But if the EU are as good as their word and refuse a new round of WA negotiations, is there another sensible option?
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Oct 2019
11:00am, 28 Oct 2019
5,720 posts
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jda
EU didn't want to change the date, because any change from what was requested would have had to rush through parliament and risks them being accused of interference, and also because they actually want some sort of pressure for us to come to a decision.
Anyway, Farage will be pleased, for some strange reason...
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Fantasy General Election
Jul 2024
